There's a 30% chance of the RBA hiking rates in August, as CPI is rising again and inflation is going to push up even further in the 2H. But rate hikes are budging the key CPI pressure
Look at my chart. Rate hikes aren't slowing the biggest contributors to CPI. Rate hikes are just hurting 50% of the population (who live week to week). 1- Look at the correlation with CPI (orange), the oil price (in white), the Au ga spump price (blue), residential property prices (purple). But remember the RBA has rates at 4.35%. 12 year-highs
2- Inflation rose faster than expected for the 3rd month in May (+4% YoY, vs 3.6% in April). Remember the RBA target for inflation is 2-3%. The biggest contributors to inflation: Housing (+5.2%), Transport (+4.9%), Alcohol & tobacco (+6.7%), Food & non-alcoholic beverages (+3.3%).
3 - Housing costs overall rose 5.2% in the year to May (vs 4.9% in April). Rents +7.4% for the year, reflecting a tight rental market. New dwelling prices rose 4.9% in the year, with builders passing on higher labour and material costs.
4- Electricity prices rose 6.5% in the year to May (vs 4.2% in April). Out-of-pocket costs for electricity are rising too, as the Energy Bill Relief Fund rebates are being used.
4- Electricity prices rose 6.5% in the year to May (vs 4.2% in April). Out-of-pocket costs for electricity are rising too, as the Energy Bill Relief Fund rebates are being used.
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Moomoo Official Market Strategist
Investment strategist, featured on TV, radio, newspapers.
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151453268 witso : Well west Australians, with most of the remaining oz population are working 14% more nowadays to obviously pay for everything like coffee an essential to burning the candle at both ends + the outrageous mortgage, principal and interest they have secured due to an inflated property market, foreign immigration and boomer investment propping a market up,banks taking there don’t be naughty smack on the wrist, already looking for ways to unleash multitudes of cash onto to un suspecting borrowers / investors in said sector. Is our bubble being set to burst hope not but it has its upsides too “reality” check.
151757323 : I wonder what the rents contribution to CPI would have been if we weren't adding 560K to the population just by immigration each year since Labor took over?
me and a friend have seen our rent increase by 75% over 2 years in Melbourne, and that's after moving to try and save some $.