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sato koji : In conclusion, I don't think it's likely that this story will come true.

The logic is as follows.

First, Japanese people don't often buy Japanese stocks even when Japanese salaries go up. The ratio of Japanese people receiving a salary and buying Nikkei cannot be accurately calculated, but it is unlikely to exceed 10%, so for example, if there is a 5% wage increase in Japan and half of that can be saved as spare money, even if they hold 50% deposit with 50% shares, it is 10% × 5% × 50% = 0.25%. Even with this, estimates are quite poor, so I think the impact of Japanese people buying Japanese stocks due to wage increases in Japan is limited.

Next, there is an impact on the Nikkei due to Japan's interest rate catching up with rice, but it is probably long before this is realized, and the possibility that it will not be realized is not low. The current interest rate in Japan is 0.25% and rice is 5.25%, so even as an extreme simulation from the current situation, within the year, Japan raises interest rates by 0.5% in 2 more times, and even if rice cuts 1% interest rates 2 times, there is also an interest rate difference of 3.5% between Japan and 4.25% for rice. Changes in the balance sheets of the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan and the deceleration of the US economy will progress during this time, so I don't know if Japan and the US will be able to maintain their current interest rate fluctuation policy next year.

Based on these, when considering the impact of rising salaries in Japan, first of all, the amount of money that can be used by people with increased salaries will increase, so there is a high possibility that private consumption within Japan will rise. Then, companies that sell goods in Japan will increase their sales. There are also price increases due to wage increases, so there is a high possibility that sales in terms of money will rise apart from becoming substantially richer. If the number of investors who like this increases, there is a good chance that Nikkei will rise. However, as I mentioned earlier, investors who buy Nikkei have a higher ratio of foreigners and institutional investors than Japanese individuals, so it is presumed that Nikkei is in a larger position to view it as part of a portfolio. Then, most of the world's stocks are listed in the US, and since the scale is much larger than Nikkei, it is natural to think that there will be fewer people who have invested in Nikkei and not invested in the US market.

Furthermore, in addition to stocks, there is a wide range of investment targets such as bonds, gold, commodities, real estate, etc., so if interest rates on rice fall, bonds will rise, gold and commodities will rise, and real estate will rise.

Due to these profits and losses, Japanese stocks may be bought more, or conversely, positions may be reduced

Based on the above, I think it is unlikely that a story where Japanese salaries rise, Japanese people buy Japanese stocks, and interest rates in Japan catch up with rice, the influence of rice will decrease, and a stable market will come true.