This is bad! ๐๐ Will we ever see a recovery?
Hi all, hope you are doing great with the voilatility in the market. In the last week I was mentioning about this and some the prediction came true. More bad news?! ๐ฐThere might be a silver lining? โ๏ธ
Polls said that it ended green which it did but not in a good way. ![]()
Let look at some of the macro and some of my own takes from the headlines.
1. Jobless claim. US Initial Jobless Claims Decline to 235,000
When there is a jobless claim decline. This is some good news. ![]()
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There is a likelihood that purchasing power of the community is increasing and they are able to spend more in the market.
2. Growth rate increase The Economy Looks Like It's Growing. That Could Be Another Wrinkle for the Fed
Growth rate is also increasing from 2% to 2.4% till 2.7% Forecast on July 16 which means we are expecting more spending power means more expansion in smaller business. Potentially growth in smaller businesses.
3. Federal Rate cut possible? Won't Get Fooled Again - Fed Wants Inflation to Cool Further Before Cutting Interest Rates
With the increase in both inflation and consumer spending, it is likely I would see a maintainece of rates instead of an increase. So business as usual I guess. ![]()
So Why i'm seeing further bad news then? ![]()
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Although I had shared the losses I had made this month ![]()
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that is not the case I am looking at the technical perspective.
Daily candles looks promising! ![]()
based on the indicator, we may see a Technical rebound (not as strong) as the doji is considered to be a green doji. Contributors are mostly from the Mag 7. I am seeing more of a laggard at $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ and $Tesla(TSLA.US$. More details at the stock highlights. Most likely a rotation is happening to smaller companies likelihood in the โก Energy โก Sector.
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However, If we look at the weekly, indicators shows we may fall further to the down trend ๐ป if we pull another red next week.
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My personal opinion: If we were to move into the bullish trend next week, we may see a rally above 17700. However if is a bearish trend, we may see further hammering down to 16900 to test for support.
Now let's look at some of the stock highlights.
1. Nvidia ๐ป๐ฒ๐ค $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$
NVDA is showing weak indicators of recovery here. Daily indicating 3 red candles which may lead to more pullbacks in the future. However one hope we can count on is the doji Thursday which indicate a slight chance that bulls ![]()
may want to push hard to go higher.
Maybe for Jensen sell purpose? ![]()
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Looking at the weekly, strong indicators to the bearish trend. MACD had crossed to the bearish territory indicating we may see further pullback down. ![]()
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May take on this: we may see more voilatility and price actions happening again next week. For ๐ป bearish side. We will see a pullback further all the way down to 105 range. However we may not want to see this as this will really drag the whole market down. For bullish trend ![]()
we may see a back to a high of 123 again. However, this may only be temporary. ![]()
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Now Vertiv here is what i liked. Despite what it was mentioned that earnings EPS is at a lower estimation, I think is fake! It's a beat. Vertiv will be another growth beast in the future and prospect may see that there will be a higher demand for servers in the future with the emergence of AI. Even without AI, 5G infrastructure itself contributes to the growth of this company especially demands from $Amazon(AMZN.US$ AWS and $Meta Platforms(META.US$ on servers.
Let's look at the technicals.
Yes i did buy more cause I believe in the future of the company. Also for reasons I'm learning about KDJ and MACD combo to put to test in this company. Willing to risk a pullback further ![]()
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. I'm sure it will be worth it! ๐ ๐
News about my conviction.
MACD indicating still a bearish trend while KDJ on the daily indicates we have a possibility of a reversal.
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My take:![]()
for a bullish trend for next week,i am looking at the range of back to 87 if the Macros and NVDA is in favour. However, for a bearish trend, we may see it free fall to test back at 72.
The risk I may see in this is that it may be dragged by NVDA following the suit of demand in semi conductor.
As much as I would like to review more stocks let me know what stock you would like me to review down in the comment below.
Oh and for Celsius, I would have the conviction it may return higher with more market share captured. Still holding and not selling. ![]()
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Good luck ๐ and God bless. May your trades be ever in your favour.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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Casual social trader and investor. Love to read charts for trade and love to read financial report to invest.
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Aaron Invests (AI) OP : Apologies for the early post. It was unedited and it was sent out by accident. This is the final update about my take in the market. Let me know which company you would like me to review next? Would love to read and study your findings.
rawrrrbucks : Thanks for an informative post. NASDAQ was the leader in this bearish condition. So arguably it should be the first to lead us out. Spx has to get above 5488 since we rejected hard today. Yet earlier in the week we havenโt really retraced to oversold. Wait and see. Prepared to go either way with some options :-)
Aaron Invests (AI) OP rawrrrbucks : It could go either way. I am convicted with both $Celsius Holdings (CELH.US)$ and $Vertiv Holdings (VRT.US)$. Fingers crossed for a reversal. We still need retailers to have confident in the market. Else the market may suffer if it is only institution at play. It is a necessary evil to have both institution and retailer to bring the balance in the market.
Lucky2828 : With the GDP & PCE datas released, meaning the economy is still coping well with the current inflation issue. I'm not surprise the Federal Reserve will keep the interest rate unchanged. There are many factors affecting their decision which they won't release to the public. We knew that the US debt deficit is also not in a healthy condition. With that, there is no way it will cut the interest rate in short term. Market will be fluatuating around the supporting level. That mean it will take profit/support when it reaches resistance level. Hedge funds will be the main forces that control the market direction due to their huge capital.