This Is What Investors Need to Know Ahead of Tesla's Q3 Deliveries and the Robotaxi Event

Wall Street is estimating average deliveries of about 462,000 units, up 6% from last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. At least four analysts have boosted their estimates for Tesla’s Q3 delivery numbers.

“This China strength comes at a very opportune time for Tesla, helping to offset ongoing weakness in the US and Europe,” said Dan Levy, who follows the company for Barclays. Levy now expects deliveries of about 470,000 vehicles in the three months ending in September, up from 462,000 previously.

“In China, third-quarter seems likely to be Tesla’s best quarter ever, and although sales in Europe are weak, Cybertruck deliveries are supporting demand in the United States,” said Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter. The analyst expects deliveries for the period to be around 459,000 vehicles, and raised the price target on Tesla to $310 from $300.

RBC Capital Markets’ Tom Narayan expects it to be around 460,000 units, up from 454,000 prior, while Baird’s Ben Kallo models 480,000. UBS analyst Joseph Spak expects the number to be about 470,000.

Additionally, Tesla China has reported high domestic sales records over the last few weeks. In August, data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) revealed that Tesla sold 86,697 vehicles domestically in August, its highest sales in 2024.

Source: CnEVData

September is also shaping into a strong month for Tesla China. In the weeks ending on Sep-8, Sep-15, and Sep-22, Tesla registrations hinted that the company sold 16,200 units, 15,600 units and 13,800 units, according to the CPCA.

In fact, Ark Invest estimates that around 90% of Tesla's enterprise value and earnings will be attributed to the robotaxi business in 2029. Ark Invest now has a Tesla stock price target of 2,600 per share in 2029.

"It marks what I believe is going to be the beginning of robotaxis, autonomous and FSD (full self-driving) coming to the consumer market over the next three to five years," Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, a longtime Tesla bull, said.

Ives sees Tesla's "real monetization opportunity" less in robotaxis and more about introducing true full autonomy into its vehicles. Ives added this would lay the groundwork to have 10 million Tesla vehicles on the road with fully autonomous capabilities in the coming years.

"That's the holy grail for Tesla when it comes to core growth," Ives said.

Ives said that, for Oct. 10 to be a success, Musk and Tesla must lay out the technology, how it will scale, a time frame and a broader vision for robotaxis in the U.S.

"A great but slightly disappointing event would be if it's more vision and talk but you don't actually see the technology that convinces investors this is real," Ives warned.

Mooers, do you think the debut of Robotaxi and Tesla's third-quarter sales figures will drive Tesla's stock price higher?

Source: Boomberg, Yahoo Finance