This week's predictions ①🤔

The S&P 500 surged 2% last week. This is thanks to major high-tech stocks leading the way
Tesla's stock price has soared 38%, and this fiscal year's losses have been wiped out
Meanwhile, Grandma Pelosi bought call options for N-chan and Bro-chan.
On the macro front, last Friday, the US Department of Labor reported that the number of non-farm payrolls increased by 206,000 in June, exceeding expectations of 0.19 million. However, this is a significant decrease from the previous 272,000The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, indicating that the labor market is cooling

In my opinion, this sparked heated discussions about whether to cut interest rates in September at the Fed's July meeting, and Grandpa Powell caused a headache

If the June CPI data to be announced on 7/11 is moderate, some hawkish Fed members concerned about the softening of the labor market may change their attitude and support the September rate cut
In summary, since key economic data, such as the number of people employed in the non-farm sector, supports interest rate cut predictions, we anticipate that market sentiment will clearly improve and US stocks will be boosted steadily

There are no interest rate cuts in September, and I expect December to be strong
Technically speaking, the S&P 500 index is still trending upward within the upward channel. After a short period of horizontal and horizontal movement, the upward trend continues without major risks overallBut right now, I think we need to keep a close eye on the resistance at the top of the channel. If the upward momentum clearly weakens, such as when the main body of the candlestick cannot break through the channel top, or even when it starts showing red, there is a risk that it will be a short-term retreat, so I think we should be careful

Stock prices broke through the previous accumulation zone, formed a head and shoulders bottom pattern, and are currently on an upward trendHowever, the recent upward candlestick has become shorter, which suggests that short-term momentum is weakening, and I anticipate that there is a high possibility that it will lead to a pullback