This week's US stocks are influenced by Japan's spring battle, US CPI, and Bitcoin trends. Focus on long-debt-linked ETFs, value stocks, and Chinese ADR stocks

The US stock market was “buying first” last Friday, but selling pressure gradually intensified, and the benchmark indices all fell. Since the February unemployment rate, which was announced earlier, was 3.9% higher than expected, expectations for early interest rate cuts strengthened again, which led to buying. However, during the rough season, the expected rise in the unemployment rate was gradually digested, and the fact that the February non-farm payroll exceeded expectations offset expectations for early interest rate cuts. Profitable sales to AI-related brands, starting with NVDA (NVDA), weigh on the market price.

Furthermore, in the US local market, we focused on several materials regarding this week's market trends and shifted to a cautious stance. The author exchanged opinions with overseas local traders last weekend, and most of the opinions paid the most attention to Japan's Spring Battle responses, which are concentrated on the 13th of this week.If most companies respond in full, there is a high possibility that the Bank of Japan will step into an interest rate hike cycle after lifting negative interest rates. If Japanese interest rates rise, be wary of negative effects on global high-tech stocks. Foreign investors borrow low-interest Japanese yen to buy US high-tech stocks. A rise in interest rates in Japan will rise → a risk that will lead to a decline in liquidity in the market, especially high-tech stocks. In addition to the Japan Spring Battle results, the focus is on the CPI, which will be announced close to the 12th before the US. Above all, in last week's employment statistics, there were diametrically opposite results in terms of unemployment rate and payroll, so the February core CPI is an important clue for the FOMC on March 20. In addition, Bitcoin, which has recently become a hot topic, temporarily broke through the 70,000 dollar mark last Friday, and Bitcoin-related stocks have skyrocketed.Locally in the US, the US authorities are wary that they will show investors volatile and risk warring of virtual currency by the end of this week in response to the rapid rise in bitcoins. Whether Bitcoin prices can maintain the recent upward trend, in addition to related stocks, high-yield bonds, and risk-on funds has a big impactI'll take a look. I would like to continue to pay attention to COIN and SQ this week.

If the above scenario is true, a temporary shift to higher bond prices, higher gold, lower dollar, and higher yen is expected this week. We will wait and see for a moment about IT high-tech stocks, especially AI-related stocks, and it is expected that it will not be too late even after determining this week's trends. Instead,Choose bonds, high gold, stocks that benefit from the depreciation of the dollar and yen, or value stocks, and specifically pay attention to EDV, an ETF linked to US long-term bonds, Jiro (Z), the largest US online real estate information/brokerage company, and Amer Sports (AS), a sports manufacturer that recently did an IPO. Note, as I have pointed out before, the recent Hong Kong stock market has a strong inverse correlation with the Nikkei Average, and if Japanese stocks adjust due to a momentary appreciation of the yen, it is expected that funds will return to Hong Kong. In fact, it was reported last weekend that China is in the process of procuring 27 billion dollars (about 4 trillion yen) for the largest semiconductor fund in history in the same country, and it was decided to put a scalpel into the country's advanced technology development in order to counter the tightness of the United States. There is also irritation from the same material,Investment money can also be considered to be bought back into Chinese IT high-tech stocks, and attention is being paid to whether it will lead to a rebound in US listed Chinese ADR stocks。

Incidentally, with regard to this week's US corporate financial results, the focus continues to be on the details of financial results for AI-related stocks. Adobe (ADB) after Thursday will be the biggest peak, but keep an eye out for AI-related small and medium-sized stocks such as Asana, UI Perth (PATH), and S. Value stocks include DLTR, etc., but personally I think Thursday's FUTU and Friday's Embraer (ERJ) are strong.