Thought on SEA
Most negative sentiment around this stock is surrounding that tiktok will monopolizing the commerce industry in ID.
But is it true?
Well lets see, what happened with tokopedia x tiktok is easily predicted when the whole founders of GOTO alr quit their stake from the company. If u see from the equity shareholder structure 71% of it is in the retail hand. In indonesia market we all know exactly that the founders has thrown the towel.
So what the board are trying to do is just to milk as much cash as possible from the almost “dying” company. Of course tiktok took this chance and bought heck ton of stake in Tokopedia.
What’s next ?
I believe what happened next is only a market consolidation where tokopedia technically be replaced with tiktok shop (as mentioned GOTO just trying to sell everything they have) Hence in the future the 2 players remain Shopee and Tiktok. So from my humble opinion nothing has changed, what happened with shopee for the past 1-2Q is only a ramp up of investment to stay in the same battle field as tiktok shop because the buyer nature has changed and they need to build the social commerce industry from ground 0.
My expectation is they will still invest their whole earning to ramp up the environment of social commerce, this is not an easy task because bringing a good content, give incentive to live streamer, give a nice benefit for buyer from live streaming are not an easy task.
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