Outlook for TMF (personal view)

The October employment statistics showed a very strong result due to the Harris campaign pouring election funds into government agencies, hiring a large number of part-time and temporary workers through labor unions of the Democratic Party, causing companies to postpone layoffs.

Tomorrow's CPI is expected to beat expectations, and due to inflation concerns, bond yields are expected to rise.

Following the CPI, PCE is also expected to exceed expectations.

The employment statistics on November 1st, just before the presidential election, will naturally reflect the strength of the labor market.

The employment statistics are likely to begin deteriorating clearly as early as December.

A revision of the increased number of employees is scheduled for February next year, but there may be a sudden acceleration of concerns about entering an economic recession.

Even if the attack on Iran's oil facilities by Israel is carried out, it is expected that it will not escalate into a full-scale war and Iran will settle the spear. In the short term, bond yields are expected to remain high due to concerns about inflation reigniting without a significant decline in oil prices.

In my personal opinion, the buying opportunity for TMF is around the time when oil prices fall and a congratulatory market for the new president begins shortly after the end of the presidential election.