Tokyo Market Summary: Nikkei Average Rebound Bank of Japan Interest Rate Hike “Next January Depending on Spring Battle” Daiwa Asset Saeki

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Bank of Japan interest rate hike “next January depending on Spring Battle” Daiwa Asset Saeki
The turmoil in the financial and capital markets is coming to an end, and interest is once again on the way the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates. Chief Fund Manager Saeki Keisuke, who is involved in bond management at Daiwa Asset Management, sees that the Bank of Japan's additional interest rate hikes “next January will be in view” on conditions such as whether wage increases above the inflation rate will continue next fiscal year.

The shadow of the yen's appreciation flickering over Japanese stocks and inbound shopping
In response to the trend where the US stock exchange rate rose on the 21st against the backdrop of heightened observations of lower US interest rates, buying was dominant in Japanese stocks. Purchases by individual investors who have increased their risk tolerance due to the recent return in market prices have also supported it. However, the recent appreciation of the yen has become a burden, and department store stocks considered to be related to inbound (visitors to Japan) are sluggish.
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Major semiconductor equipment companies to increase sales from July to September 10, strong demand for AI
The 2024/7/9 fiscal year (partial fiscal year ending August to October) of the world's semiconductor manufacturing equipment manufacturers $Applied Materials (AMAT.US)$It is expected that all 10 major companies will increase sales. Investment in semiconductors for generative AI (artificial intelligence) continues to be strong, and there is a widespread view that related demand is strong. The market will keep a close eye on the sustainability of Chinese demand, which boosted results for the April-6 fiscal year. $Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$Sales for the July-September fiscal year are expected to increase by 20% or more according to the market forecast average (QUICK consensus). $Advantest (6857.JP)$Sales for the July-September fiscal year will increase 30% according to market forecasts.

Pay attention to the handle
7 & iHD takeover, possibility that government approval will become a barrier - the positioning key of the Foreign Exchange Law
by Alimantacion Couchard from Canada $Seven & i Holdings (3382.JP)$Whether or not the consent of the Japanese government can be obtained is likely to be a hurdle in the takeover proposal. Whether friendly or hostile, if it is determined that the 7&iHD business affects national security, there is a possibility that the country will order a change or cancellation of the investment.

JT's stock price rebounds and acquires US peer company Vector
Of the major tobacco company $Japan Tobacco (2914.JP)$rebounded and rose to 4215 yen, up 2.62% at one point. On the 21st, it was announced that Vector Group, which is in the same business as the US, will be acquired. The acquisition amount is approximately 378 billion yen, and all shares will be acquired. Stock acquisitions are expected to be completed during the fiscal year ending 2024/12 (current fiscal year), and purchases are underway that are expected to contribute to business results.

The view is that NITORI HD shares continue to expand drastically and that the appreciation of the yen progresses as a tailwind for business results
$Nitori Holdings (9843.JP)$It has continued to grow drastically for 5 days. At one point, the increase expanded to 21,440 yen, which was 3.25% higher. The trend of appreciation of the yen and depreciation of the dollar continues in the foreign exchange market, and buying is dominant from the view that a decline in purchase costs will be a tailwind for business results.

Bank stocks such as Mitsubishi UFJ are weak, and US interest rates declined in response to downward revisions in US employment statistics ◇
$Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306.JP)$Ya $Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316.JP)$、 $Mizuho Financial Group (8411.JP)$Megabanks are sluggish, etc. Due to the annual revision of employment statistics by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 21st local time. Estimates have been announced that the number of employed people will be revised downward by 818,000 for the year up to March this year. Amid awareness of the possibility that the US labor market has softened more than previously anticipated, the summary of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) proceedings held in July supported the September interest rate cut scenario, and long-term interest rates fell to 3.80% in the US bond market on the same day.
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IHI shares have completed fact-checking of fraud in the drastic rebound engine test
$IHI (7013.JP)$There was a drastic backlash. There was a scene where 6,000 yen, which was 7% higher at one point, was added. Fact-checking on fraud in engine test run records discovered at the consolidated subsidiary in April 21 was completed, and it was announced that an investigation report had been submitted to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, and purchases are growing from the view that bad materials have run out.