Tokyo Market Summary: Nikkei Average rebounds for the first time in 4 days, funds for securities stocks in anticipation of benefits from the start of the new NISA

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Fund supply increased for the first time in 2 years = record high due to mass purchases of government bonds - end of last year
The Bank of Japan announced on the 5th that the balance of the monetary base (amount of funds supplied) showing the sum of cash circulating in the market and current accounts held by financial institutions with the Bank of Japan was 673 trillion 47 billion yen, up 6.4% from the end of the previous year as of the end of 2023. Since the Bank of Japan purchased a large amount of government bonds to suppress the rise in long-term interest rates, the balance surpassed the level at the end of the previous year for the first time in 2 years, and hit a record high on a year-end basis.

Preliminary cost increase for next fiscal year's budget plan to support the Noto Peninsula earthquake - Prime Minister gives unusual instructions
On the 5th, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida instructed Finance Minister Suzuki Shunichi to change the general account budget plan for the next fiscal year and increase reserve expenses in order to support areas affected by the Noto Peninsula earthquake. Prime Minister Kishida made it clear to reporters at the Prime Minister's Office on the same day.

Spring Nikkei average replacement: Major domestic securities anticipate new hires of Socionex, Disco, and ZOZO
Daiwa Securities announced the forecast for regular stock swaps for the spring Nikkei Stock Average on the 4th. Three stocks are expected to be replaced in the same securities. Specifically, as a candidate for new employment $Socionext (6526.JP)$ 、 $Disco (6146.JP)$、 $Zozo (3092.JP)$I've listed them. Preliminary recruitment candidates $Rohm (6963.JP)$、 $Ryohin Keikaku (7453.JP)$That's it. Excluded candidates $Takara Holdings (2531.JP)$、 $Pacific Metals (5541.JP)$、 $Sumitomo Osaka Cement (5232.JP)$List candidates to be excluded from the preliminary list $Hitachi Zosen (7004.JP)$That's it.

Domestic new car sales in 23, first increase in 5 years = Daihatsu cars fell 12.7% in December
Domestic new car sales in 2023 were 4.77,9086 units, up 13.8% from the previous year, turning positive for the first time in 5 years since 2018. Recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and mitigation of semiconductor supply shortages progressed, and sales of new models launched by various companies remained strong. Daihatsu Motor's domestic new car sales volume in December last year, which had certification fraud issues, was 42,916 units, down 12.7% from the same month last year.

Pay attention to the handle
Buyback pressure continues on automobile stocks such as Toyota and Honda, and the depreciation of the yen progresses and approaches 1 dollar = 145 yen
$Toyota Motor (7203.JP)$Ya $Honda Motor (7267.JP)$Buyback pressure on automobile stocks continues. In the foreign exchange market, the dollar to yen exchange rate has increased and the dollar depreciation has progressed, and it is currently close to the 145 yen milestone of 1 dollar = 144 yen around 90 yen. Negative interest rate cancellation observations in January by the Bank of Japan receded in response to the Noto Peninsula earthquake. Long-term US interest rates have also returned to 4%, and there is a rebound in dollar selling/yen buying positions that anticipate a reduction in Japan-US interest rate differences. Regarding the US employment statistics announced tonight, there is a sense of alarm about the rise in long-term US interest rates after publication, and it seems that purchases aimed at eliminating sales holdings are intermittently entering automobile stocks.

Will NTT-5 continuous growth continue to buy using the new NISA? 3 telecommunications companies and JT have risen since the beginning of the year
$Nippon Telegraph & Telephone (9432.JP)$It continued to grow for 5 days. It also seems that purchases by individual investors due to the use of the new NISA, which began in 2024/1, are continuing. Telecom stocks are highly popular with individual investors, and it seems that there are orders using NISA for the company's stock. $KDDI (9433.JP)$、 $SoftBank (9434.JP)$、 $Japan Tobacco (2914.JP)$etc. have also continued to rise since the beginning of the year.

Nomura and Yamato hit new highs last year and funded securities stocks in anticipation of the benefits of starting a new NISA
$Nomura Holdings (8604.JP)$with $Daiwa Securities Group (8601.JP)$They all hit new highs last year. The new NISA started in January. While stocks with high dividend yield are showing strong movements, there is a widespread view that the inflow of new funds by individual investors is boosting stock prices, and it seems that purchases anticipated a positive impact on earnings in terms of earnings were introduced into securities stocks. $SBI Holdings (8473.JP)$Ya $SBI Holdings (8473.JP)$、 $Aizawa Securities Group (8708.JP)$、 $Mito Securities (8622.JP)$It is also high, and the “securities and commodity futures trading business” is at the top of the Tokyo Stock Exchange's industry-specific index.

Mitsui Fuji---Significant rebound; US securities are bullish on the real estate sector due to fixed inflation
$Mitsui Fudosan (8801.JP)$There was a sharp backlash. Today, the real estate sector is at the top of the rate of increase by industry. In Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities, industry investment decisions are “attracthive,” assuming that opportunities for valuation revisions have come to the real estate industry due to the transition to an inflationary economy.

Renesas continued to decline for 4 days, and the depreciation of automotive semiconductor stocks in the US, which received MobilEye's financial results, spread
$Renesas Electronics (6723.JP)$It continued to fall for 4 days. Israel's that handles autonomous driving support systems $Mobileye Global (MBLY.US)$The stock price plummeted in the US market on the 4th. This is because the earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending December 24, which was announced on the same day, fell far short of market expectations. Furthermore, pessimistic views on the future of the automotive semiconductor market spread in response to the company's financial results announcement, $ON Semiconductor (ON.US)$Ya $Texas Instruments (TXN.US)$Downward pressure was also applied to the stock prices of manufacturers that handle automotive semiconductors, etc. It seems that the decline in overseas automotive semiconductor stocks has become a burden for Renesas.

NITORI HD --- Continued drastic decline, selling advantage over stocks with strong yen due to movements in the exchange market to reverse depreciation of yen depreciation
$Nitori Holdings (9843.JP)$has continued to decline drastically. In the United States, long-term interest rates are currently on a reversal trend in response to an increase in economic indicators, while domestically, there is a situation where people are aware that the Bank of Japan's mitigation policy revision period will be postponed due to the occurrence of the Noto Peninsula Earthquake. As a result, the trend of reversal from the appreciation of the dollar to the depreciation of the yen has intensified since the beginning of the year in the exchange market. It seems that the movement of selling in exchange is becoming dominant for companies such as Kobe Bussan and the like, which are positioned as representative of the advantages of yen appreciation.