Tokyo Market Summary: Nikkei Stock Average falls and pension sales are scarier than exchange intervention

moomooニュース日本株 wrote a column · Mar 28, 2024 14:26

Tokyo Market Summary: Nikkei Stock Average falls and pension sales are scarier than exchange intervention

Hello Moomoo users! Thank you very much for your hard work.Today's stock price summary is as follows. Thank you in advance.
●The Nikkei Stock Average ended at 40168.07 yen, 594.66 yen lower than the previous business day
● Bank of Japan's spring battle is decisive for policy revisions, and a sense of security even if the market is factored in = March meeting agreement
● At the end of fiscal year 23, when Easter holidays overlap, the Japanese financial market faced risks
● The Nikkei average forecast for top management is the highest in the “40,000 yen range” as of June
● Are individual investors actively buying Japanese stocks? Changes in the “response function” - NISA effects too
● Attention to the handle: $Toyota Motor (7203.JP)$、 $Nissan Motor (7201.JP)$etc
-MooMoo News Japan Stock Zeber

Market Overview
Today's Nikkei Stock Average ended at 40168.07 yen, 594.66 yen lower than the previous business day, and the Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX) fell 48.47 points to 2750.81 in the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Top news
Bank of Japan's spring battle is decisive for policy revisions, and there is a sense of security that the market is factored in = March meeting agreement
At the monetary policy meeting held by the Bank of Japan on 18-19, it became clear that in order to confirm the virtuous cycle of wages and prices, opinions were expressed that the primary tally of spring battles etc. should be decisive factors and policy revisions should be carried out. Since the Bank of Japan strengthened information dissemination that “an accommodative financial environment will continue even after negative interest rates are lifted” in advance and the market incorporated it, it also boosted the reading that confusion is unlikely to occur even if policy revisions are decided. Regarding additional interest rate increases, there was an opinion that it would be appropriate to proceed “slowly and steadily” while observing the economic and price situation.

At the end of fiscal year 23, when Easter holidays overlap, the Japanese financial market faces risks
Risks about Japanese stocks, bonds, and exchange rates reaching the end of fiscal 2023 are increasing. Shortly after the Bank of Japan decided to raise interest rates on the 19th, major markets around the world will be closed for the Easter (Easter) holiday on the last business day.

The Nikkei average forecast for top management is the highest in the “40,000 yen range” as of June
The Nikkei Stock Average has surpassed the 40,000 yen mark, and historically high levels continue. When I asked the forecast for market price developments until around 2024/9 in the “100 Presidents Questionnaire,” the most common response was “the upward trend will continue” at 41.6%. “Continued leveling off” (37.2%) continued, and “turning to a downward trend” remained at 11.5%. There are many views that steady price movements will continue against the backdrop of good performance.

S&P Confirms Japan's Sovereign Rating “A+” - Outlook Stable
S&P Global Ratings left Japan's long-term sovereign rating unchanged at “A+” on the 28th. The outlook continued to be “stable.”

Are individual investors actively buying Japanese stocks? Changes in the “response function” - NISA effects
Individual investors, who have often been sellers in the Japanese stock market for many years, are becoming buyers recently, and it can be seen that their investment attitude is changing. For Japanese stocks, which are in the high price range, such as the Nikkei Average hitting an all-time high, it is likely to be a new reinforcements if individual selling pressure decreases.

Long-term interest rates are at a low level for the first time in 3 weeks, and the Bank of Japan purchase operation shows good supply and demand
The bond exchange rate rose on the 28th. Long-term interest rates fell to the level for the first time in three weeks. After sales took precedence in response to the “main opinion” of the monetary policy meeting where the Bank of Japan decided to raise interest rates for the first time in 17 years, supply-demand tightening in the medium- to long-term zone was shown by government bond purchase operations, and buying became dominant.

FY24 budget plan 112 trillion yen, established in the afternoon, maximum social security and government debt expenses
It is expected that the 2024 government budget plan will also be enacted with a majority of approval from the ruling party at the House of Councilors plenary session on the afternoon of the 28th. Of the general account of 112 trillion 571.7 billion yen, spending accounts for about 60% with only social security expenses that are difficult to control and principal and interest payments on government bonds, and rigidity is progressing. The composition of compensating for the lack of revenue with new government bonds also continues.

Japan lacks renewable energy supply, Amazon does not meet corporate needs - fossil fuel dependency
The world's largest purchaser of clean electricity, the United States $Amazon (AMZN.US)$Regarding Japan's energy policy, a clear judgment was made this month that the pace of supplying renewable energy to the private sector was insufficient.

Featured stocks
President Chen Xi at the general meeting to 4 people who died after ingestion of Kobayashi Pharmaceutical's red yeast supplement
$Kobayashi Pharmaceutical (4967.JP)$On the 28th, it was announced that there is a possibility that 2 new consumers who ingested foods with functional claims containing red malt (koji) ingredients that were decided to be voluntarily collected because there is a risk of health hazards have died. The bereaved family informed me that the person who died from kidney disease had used “red yeast cholesterol help” during his lifetime, and it was discovered. The company says it is “confirming facts and causal relationships.” Four people are said to have died after ingestion.

Toyota's February global sales and production split the previous year, and Daihatsu and Toyota looms bad
$Toyota Motor (7203.JP)$Global sales and world production for February 2012 (both Toyota alone, including Lexus cars) announced on the 28th fell below the same month of the previous year. As for the previous year's split, global sales were the first time in 13 months, and global production was the first time in 14 months. Daihatsu Motor and $Toyota Industries (6201.JP)$In addition to being affected by certification fraud and snowfall, etc., the intensification of sales competition in China also resonated.

Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. also announced stock buybacks up to 100 million shares and 59.5 billion yen without solid attendance
$Nissan Motor (7201.JP)$is solid. The company announced on the 27th that it will set a share repurchase quota with an upper limit of 124,2900 shares and 59.48,84,136,860 yen. With the base price of 593 yen 40 yen for the next day calculated on 2024/3/27, the purchase will be outsourced in the Tokyo Stock Exchange off-site share purchase transaction (ToSTNet-3) at 8:45 a.m. on 2024/3/28. Note that when the maximum number of shares is acquired, the ratio to the total number of issued shares excluding treasury shares is 2.51%.

Distributor: Bloomberg, Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Jiji Press, QUICK Money World, Traders Web、Reuters