Tokyo Market Summary: The Nikkei Average continues to fall for 3 days, and Japan's small and medium-sized stock prices are short lived, and interest rate conditions are different from the US, which is booming with Trump's exchange rate

Top news
Semiconductor anxiety reflected by Japanese stocks and disco depreciation, and a sense of deceleration in current business performance
The Nikkei Average continued to fall, and there was also a reaction that depreciated drastically the day before, and in a situation where it fell below 0.04 million yen, there was also a lot of movement to compress the momentum ahead of full-scale financial results announcements for the fiscal year ending 2024/4/6, and the upper price was heavy. While there is still a strong sense of short-term overheating, the momentum behind the rise in Japanese stocks, which has been supported by semiconductor-related performance expectations and the depreciation of the yen in the foreign exchange market, is being lost.

Japan's small and medium cap stocks are short lived, and interest rate conditions are different from the US, which is booming with the Trump exchange rate
There is a possibility that the rise in Japanese small and medium-sized stocks, which are currently showing strong movements in line with investment popularity in the US stock market, will end in a short time. This is because the Bank of Japan has different monetary policy circumstances, such as searching for the timing of additional interest rate hikes, compared to the United States, where interest rate cuts are expected by the end of the year, and rising interest rates are a risk for small and medium-sized stocks with weak finances.

Bankruptcies of long-established companies increased by 90%, pace higher than “Lehman” from January to June
Teikoku Databank announced on the 19th that the number of bankruptcies of long-established companies over 100 years since their establishment and establishment was 74 in the first half of 2024 (January-June), a 90% increase from the same period last year. It was the highest number ever since 00, when statistics can be traced back to the first half of the year. There is a possibility that it will significantly exceed 2008 (120 cases) at the time of the Lehman shock on an annual basis. In addition to deteriorating profitability due to high prices, bankruptcies due to lack of successors are conspicuous.

I'm not directly asking the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates right now = Digital Minister Kono
Minister in charge of digital affairs Taro Kono explained at the post-cabinet meeting on the 19th that “I think you can understand if you look at the video (of the interview) about Bloomberg's report that it is said that they asked the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates to correct depreciation of the yen, but I'm not directly asking the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates right now.” Assuming that monetary policy is decided by the Bank of Japan, he said, “The Bank of Japan will decide exactly what to do.”
RELATED ARTICLES
Finance Minister Suzuki “Be careful when speaking” complains to Digital Minister Kono - over interest rate hikes

Real GDP fell to 0.9% in fiscal year 24, and consumption declined due to high prices due to depreciation of the yen - government
The government indicated at the Economic and Fiscal Advisory Council meeting on the 19th that the real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate for the 2024 fiscal year will be 0.9%. It will be revised downward from 1.3% of the government's economic outlook as of January. The fact that prices have been high longer than expected against the backdrop of the depreciation of the yen resonated with private sector consumption.

Featured stocks
DISCO stock price, low net profit of 5.1% at one time fell short of market expectations
$Disco(6146.JP)$It continued to fall for 3 days. 0.05 million2440 yen, which was 5.10% lower at one point, was added, and even after that, it remained in the low range for the first time in 2 months since mid-May. On the 18th, it was announced that consolidated net profit for the 2024/4/9 fiscal year, which had been undecided, is expected to increase 43% from the same period last year to 46.8 billion yen. It fell below the QUICK consensus market forecast of 58.9 billion yen (as of 18th, 5 companies), and disgusting sales are spreading.

Toyota is sluggish, and the attitude of reviewing EV promotion measures and buying is limited in Mr. Trump's speech◇
$Toyota Motor(7203.JP)$It's not bright. On the 18th US time, former US President Trump made a nomination acceptance speech at the Republican convention and once again expressed the idea of reviewing EV (electric vehicle) promotion measures. As for Toyota, which takes an omnidirectional strategy in the automobile lineup, there was speculation in part of the market that if the United States suppresses the spread of EVs and takes a strong stance against Chinese manufacturers, it would work positively for Toyota's business development.

Sumitomo Hayashi surges 6 times in a row to advance on the new price road, speculation that interest rates will fall and housing demand will expand under Trumpnomics
$Sumitomo Forestry(1911.JP)$It has risen 6 times in a row and is advancing along the new price road. In financial markets, there is a high level of interest in the policies proposed by Mr. Trump. There is a growing view that Mr. Trump, who intends to correct the appreciation of the dollar, will calm inflation in the future due to the expansion of crude oil production, and further increase pressure on the US FRB to cut interest rates. For Sumitomo Hayashi, who has grown the real estate business in the US, speculation is spreading that when US mortgage interest rates fall due to interest rate cuts, there will be a positive impact on the business, and it seems that the brunt of searching is on its way.

The backstage of JAL also remained soft, and even though the number of foreign visitors to Japan in June was the highest in a single month, concerns about the appreciation of the yen put pressure on inbound stocks ◇
$Japan Airlines(9201.JP)$Ya $ANA Holdings(9202.JP)$The backstage also remained soft. $Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings(3099.JP)$Ya $MatsukiyoCocokara(3088.JP)$The upper price is heavy, $Shiseido(4911.JP)$It's a dull development. The number of foreign visitors to Japan (estimate) for June announced by the Japan National Tourism Organization on the 19th was 3.135,600. Although it recorded a record high for a single month, the attitude of buying using this as a clue is limited.