Tokyo Market Summary: Nikkei average down 251 yen, yen hits a year-to-date high, briefly reaching 140.60 yen. Hedge funds anticipate a further rise in the yen.
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- The Nikkei average ended at 36,581.76 yen, down 251.51 yen from the previous trading day.
Hedge funds expect a further increase in the yen - bets are expanding in the options market.
●日銀の次回利上げ、エコノミストの半数以上が12月と予想－サーベイ- The Nikkei average ended at 36,581.76 yen, down 251.51 yen from the previous trading day.
Hedge funds expect a further increase in the yen - bets are expanding in the options market.
●日鉄によるＵＳスチール買収への反対「揺るがない」－労組トップ表明
●Hot Stocks: $Nippon Steel (5401.JP)$、 $AEON (8267.JP)$
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Market Overview
今日の東京株式市場で日経平均株価は前営業日比251.51円安の36581.76円、東証株価指数（TOPIX）が21.36ポイント安の2571.14で終了した。Market Overview
Top News
Hedge funds are predicting a slight rise in the yen - bets expanding in the options market.
Some hedge funds are increasing their bullish positions on the yen in the options market. The yen has shown the best performance among the world's currencies in the July to September (third quarter) period. According to traders, hedge funds are building long positions on the yen against currencies such as the Australian dollar, Swiss franc, and offshore renminbi. Traders spoke on condition of anonymity.
The yen has risen to the upper 140s, causing pressure on the dollar as speculation of a significant US rate cut lingers.
In the Tokyo foreign exchange market on the 13th, the yen exchange rate rose further to the upper 140s against the dollar. There is growing awareness of the possibility of a significant US rate cut, leading to overall weakness in the dollar against major currencies and Asian currencies. The Wall Street Journal reports that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is considering whether to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points (bp, 1 bp = 0.01%) or 50 bp at the meeting scheduled for the 17th and 18th.
More than half of economists expect the Bank of Japan's next rate hike to be in December, according to a survey.
Regarding the timing of the Bank of Japan's next rate hike, over half of economists are expecting it to be at the financial policy decision meeting in December. The majority view is that it will happen by January next year, with nearly 90%, and there has been no significant change in outlook despite the market turmoil in August.
Hot Stocks
"Unshaken" opposition to Nippon Steel's acquisition of US Steel - Union leader's declaration
The United Steelworkers (USW) has stated that it will not succumb to the last resort strategy of targeting union members for acquisition. The acquisition plan is described as a "deal without prospects" and the opposition to foreign acquisitions is clear. $United States Steel (X.US)$Ion continues to rise and approaches its year-to-date high, with leading domestic securities firms raising their target stock prices. SMBC Nikko Securities revised Ion's target stock price from 3,700 yen to 3,900 yen on the 12th. The investment rating remains at "2". While monthly revenue of the retail business has been recovering since June, improvements in gross margin of the same business are necessary to achieve the annual operating profit plan. $Nippon Steel (5401.JP)$The United Steelworkers (USW) has stated that it will not succumb to the last resort strategy of targeting union members for acquisition. The acquisition plan is described as a "deal without prospects" and the opposition to foreign acquisitions is clear.
Ion continues to rise and approaches its year-to-date high, with leading domestic securities firms raising their target stock prices. SMBC Nikko Securities revised Ion's target stock price from 3,700 yen to 3,900 yen on the 12th. The investment rating remains at "2". While monthly revenue of the retail business has been recovering since June, improvements in gross margin of the same business are necessary to achieve the annual operating profit plan.
$AEON (8267.JP)$Ion continues to rise and approaches its year-to-date high, with leading domestic securities firms raising their target stock prices. SMBC Nikko Securities revised Ion's target stock price from 3,700 yen to 3,900 yen on the 12th. The investment rating remains at "2". While monthly revenue of the retail business has been recovering since June, improvements in gross margin of the same business are necessary to achieve the annual operating profit plan.
Hedge funds are predicting a slight rise in the yen - bets expanding in the options market.
Some hedge funds are increasing their bullish positions on the yen in the options market. The yen has shown the best performance among the world's currencies in the July to September (third quarter) period. According to traders, hedge funds are building long positions on the yen against currencies such as the Australian dollar, Swiss franc, and offshore renminbi. Traders spoke on condition of anonymity.
The yen has risen to the upper 140s, causing pressure on the dollar as speculation of a significant US rate cut lingers.
In the Tokyo foreign exchange market on the 13th, the yen exchange rate rose further to the upper 140s against the dollar. There is growing awareness of the possibility of a significant US rate cut, leading to overall weakness in the dollar against major currencies and Asian currencies. The Wall Street Journal reports that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is considering whether to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points (bp, 1 bp = 0.01%) or 50 bp at the meeting scheduled for the 17th and 18th.
More than half of economists expect the Bank of Japan's next rate hike to be in December, according to a survey.
Regarding the timing of the Bank of Japan's next rate hike, over half of economists are expecting it to be at the financial policy decision meeting in December. The majority view is that it will happen by January next year, with nearly 90%, and there has been no significant change in outlook despite the market turmoil in August.
Hot Stocks
"Unshaken" opposition to Nippon Steel's acquisition of US Steel - Union leader's declaration
The United Steelworkers (USW) has stated that it will not succumb to the last resort strategy of targeting union members for acquisition. The acquisition plan is described as a "deal without prospects" and the opposition to foreign acquisitions is clear. $United States Steel (X.US)$Ion continues to rise and approaches its year-to-date high, with leading domestic securities firms raising their target stock prices. SMBC Nikko Securities revised Ion's target stock price from 3,700 yen to 3,900 yen on the 12th. The investment rating remains at "2". While monthly revenue of the retail business has been recovering since June, improvements in gross margin of the same business are necessary to achieve the annual operating profit plan. $Nippon Steel (5401.JP)$The United Steelworkers (USW) has stated that it will not succumb to the last resort strategy of targeting union members for acquisition. The acquisition plan is described as a "deal without prospects" and the opposition to foreign acquisitions is clear.
Ion continues to rise and approaches its year-to-date high, with leading domestic securities firms raising their target stock prices. SMBC Nikko Securities revised Ion's target stock price from 3,700 yen to 3,900 yen on the 12th. The investment rating remains at "2". While monthly revenue of the retail business has been recovering since June, improvements in gross margin of the same business are necessary to achieve the annual operating profit plan.
$AEON (8267.JP)$Ion continues to rise and approaches its year-to-date high, with leading domestic securities firms raising their target stock prices. SMBC Nikko Securities revised Ion's target stock price from 3,700 yen to 3,900 yen on the 12th. The investment rating remains at "2". While monthly revenue of the retail business has been recovering since June, improvements in gross margin of the same business are necessary to achieve the annual operating profit plan.
Source: Bloomberg, MINKABU, Reuters
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大負けネコ : Last night, I took a half-day break from the nightly 'Japan-America market analysis' to watch professional baseball
. It was the first time in 5 years? I felt bitter after the big loss in the game, returning home like a defeated soldier, only to find my foolish wife had locked the car door and was bathing, leaving me waiting outside the apartment entrance for over 20 minutes. It reminded me of when I was a child and got in trouble, having to stand in front of the principal's office hallway for an hour. 'Did I do something wrong?' I wondered. It seems it was a 'punishment game from the god of investments.' Without time to check various information, I went straight to brushing my teeth, taking a bath, medication, and sleep. The buying orders from the previous night couldn't be placed, and the morning came. '??? Why is the yen appreciating, with 1 dollar @ 140 yen?' Before I knew it, the faction arguing 'American market investors' sentiment deteriorating ⇒ concerns about economic downturn reignited' increased, advocating for 'Federal Reserve Board's sudden cut in long-term interest rates by 0.50%,' while dubious 'currency hedge funds' were 'buying yen futures' in various currencies? Not good. This year, various things such as prizes, horse racing predictions, and 'buy stocks' in the stock market, have been characterized by many successful predictions. About 10 days ago, I contacted a friend and posted several comments on moomoo's bulletin board about a 'bad feeling.' 'It seems that during the American FOMC of 9/17-18, Chairman Powell announced 
the reignition of concerns about American economic downturn ⇒ a 
️ 0.50% cut in long-term interest rates 
️,' leading to an 'unexpected rate cut' surpassing market expectations. While the American market may rise in stock prices, on the Japanese side, it could lead to 'yen selling, selling Japanese stocks, selling everything 
️,' quickly resulting in 'exchange rate decline = yen appreciation 
️' to just below 130 yen for 1 dollar, and a sense of 'another "major crash 
️" coming' with an occult 'prediction? premonition.' The sense that 'concerns about economic downturn are fading = concerns about recession reigniting' is starting to seem realistic. Will we be able to overcome 'the next crash?' Last time, I responded with quick 'additional capital injection to buy falling stocks & add to rising stocks' and managed to reach the 'plusterritory 
️' of stocks within 20 days from a △◯ million yen? starting point, but there are still 'unrealized losses' in investment trusts. The additional funds are also uncertain. 'What should I do, Grandpa Powell?' 'What will the exchange rate be?' 'What should I do?' Last time, with an exchange rate of 1 dollar @ 167 yen ⇒ around 143 yen, the Nikkei Stock Average △10,000 yen = total △ trillion yen = exceeding the Japanese government budget of 1 trillion yen, it was a 'major crash 
️,' but is 'that' coming again? 'The god of investments is testing.' They want to see the 'way of fighting' for the 'investment gods' of Japan, America, Europe? against the 'speculators seeking to amass immense wealth through malicious currency manipulation,' by those who engage in 'honorable investment behavior, innocent investors' 'battle.' Well, it's okay. I have faced the brink of death many times before. Even if stocks and investment trusts halved, it doesn't mean 'death.' The 'future assets' built over more than 20 years still remain. Stocks and investment trusts do not become worthless, and even in the downturn, 'dividend income' continues to come in. I will show the spirit and determination of a weak individual investor with good intentions. It's different from 'money-grubbing bastards who have no skills except for the "money game,"' simply striving for a 'battle to be proud of in the eyes of the investment god.' Let's Enjoy Your Investment 
️