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Trump 2.0 Era: What's the next opportunity in the markets?
▪️Could Trump's crypto policies potentially benefit the crypto market? ▪️Might his tariff policies have a positive effect on Chinese stocks
Michael McCarthy CCO
Jan 3 11:57
Ask a strategist - Trump's first day
Lnova : thanks I am still trying to find out more about this. This article said that the study commenced but the news article before this one on $Cingulate (CING.US)$ page just said that that the last part of the study has been initiated. I mean I guess both are true if it happened and commenced but the articles were published back to back so I’m gonna try to find out more and see when results from the trials may be announced… will post that if I find anything
Arrayfunction Lnova : I am a bit confused about the direction of the company. Their drug pipelines are compounds that already exist in both immediate and extended release formulations. They have a lot of PR on a "better" extended release mechanism? But I don't quite see why that is novel enough to take any market shares from the existing meds.
Especially since they are targeting far less popular stimulants (e.g. not Adderall, Vyvanse, Ritalin, etc) and aren't claiming any new features like reduced abuse potential. As someone who takes stimulants daily, I have zero reason to switch. The market space for ADHD meds would be finding a better non-stimulant drug, but that hasn't exactly been a great success (e.g. Qelbree)
Lnova Arrayfunction : I feel you I take Adderall too. I think the new feature CING is wanting to bring with their medication is that there is somehow like multiple extended releases per dose. That’s the way I understood it. You know how there is XR but it only lasts so long? I guess CING is claiming theirs can release more than once throughout a dose, I have no idea how. And they said it’s to make the dose last longer and prevent side effect of crashing
Arrayfunction : Oh wow. They are literally following the Purdue pharma playbook almost step for step. Purdue made virtually the exact same claims about oxycontin. Oxycontin's patent was only valid if it actually lasted more than 6-8 hours (which already existed on the market).
Protected the patent over the patient.
Oxycontin didn't actually last that long though. And the lawsuit proves they very much were aware of that. Which is why they sent their army of sales reps out to tell doctors to prescribe higher doses per pill (after they rightfully complained about it wearing off too soon) rather than multiple pills.
I feel you on the dosing. I only get about 4ish hours from the 30 mg XR I take in the morning. But I just use 3 10mg IR tablets I am prescribed to take after that wears off to get me another 6-7 hours or so. It's another sad reality that I am extremely lucky to have a psych NP who trusts me to write prescriptions like that for me over the years. Most people won't. So they are pitching technology and huge cost to get around docs presuming guilty until innocent on patients abusing drugs
Lnova Arrayfunction : yeah I feel you even Adderall XR dose doesn’t last that long. I used to be prescribed OxyContin too and know what you mean. Tbh I don’t know much about CING I just remember it ran one weekend from like $4 to $22 or so. So I keep an eye on it. There seemed to be a lot of support in the last run it had
Arrayfunction Lnova : Oh yeah. Welcome to the small bio-tech industry! It combines all the wonderful volatility and meme stock traits of penny stocks with a business model intended to be 100% speculation
I don't have enough cash to devote to swing trading to make it worth it - even if I did have a crystal ball to win consistently lol
I only invest in bio-tech by going long on companies with a large warchest (e.g. if debts are >= 25% of assets, I don't touch it), the drug pipeline has enough information out that I can get a decent idea of how likely FDA approval would be and when I can clearly understand the market share ramifications on the other side of it.
This company fails my 3rd criteria and I'll pass lol 🫠 It's 100% an expression of my personal knowledge and experience (from both working in the drug development industry as well as having a large list of rare health issues) so there's no secret trick or objective fact at play. Just recognizing my limitations! Same reason I don't play in oncology bio-tech. I simply don't understand enough how drug sales work in that field to know how well the med will sell.
So be careful out there!
Lnova Arrayfunction : tysm I’ve never heard someone break down their factor system that way. I do long hold in $Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA.US)$ and some other bio stocks. This one I don’t know really anything about am just watching to see what happens.
Arrayfunction : Sure, always happy to exchange ideas! But I am very much, in no way, qualified to give out financial advice or stock picks!
There are too many aspects that are specific to the individual. Risk tolerance, financial security, time horizon for ROI, etc etc. Especially when every bio-tech will be a speculation. There is no way around that! Just go look at Moderna's stock price year to date
Values based investing also creeps in for me. For example, part of why I know so much about the market of drugs for chronic pain is because that's what life is for me and I have 1st hand knowledge of the treatments. So I am far more willing to take a risk on companies working on that like $MIRA Pharmaceuticals (MIRA.US)$ or $Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP.US)$ (likewise with my other health conditions)
If I were diabetic or morbidly obese, I'd probably be more likely to throw money at the weight loss arms race between $ROCHE HOLDING AG (RHHBY.US)$ , $Viking Therapeutics (VKTX.US)$ , $Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US)$ , etc.
$Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA.US)$ 's novel pipeline is way too early for me to have any ideas on. Seems they are all in phase 1, so no information any time soon if the drugs actually work. The biosimilar market is an interesting one - but still too new for me to be comfortable with assuming success. Biologic companies could pull the same market manipulation that Epi-pens do - where generics exist, but they have done some legal twisting so pharmacies can't fill an Epi-pen script with a generic.
Stock_Drift OP Arrayfunction : Thank you and @Lnova for the solid input here!! I’ve kept up with every comment but let the you two talk it out. Less is more, sometimes.
S/D
I’d also like to say: i appreciate your disclaimer with the advice as I feel the same with my page, but I’d like to think we’re all here to help each other and it’s not advice, it’s ideas to trade, input. Maybe you see something I don’t, I want to know and I’ll listen.
Enjoy the rest of your weekend.
Lnova Arrayfunction : Is the same way for me. I hold Teva because they manufacture Adderall and for me it works. I’ve had Teva since May and it’s just been a slow and steady thing. When I started investing in them it was around $16 per share, now it’s around $18. I like how it has gone up steadily and hasn’t been volatile @Arrayfunction @Stock_Drift
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