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"Trump 2.0" The key is the permanent reduction of large-scale taxes and increase in tariffs, which industries and stocks should we pay attention to?

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moomooニュース米国株 wrote a column · Dec 3 21:02
Comparing the economic policies of "Trump Cabinet 2.0" and "Trump Cabinet 1.0",Advocating for large-scale tax cuts domestically,There is a common point.
Looking back at 2017, Mr. Trump signed a large-scale tax cut bill in the USA for the first time in about 30 years. In this bill, the burden of individual income tax and corporate tax was significantly reduced, especially the corporate tax rate was lowered from 35% to 21%.
The main economic proposals of the 'Trump Cabinet 2.0' include tax cuts within the United States, tariff increases, and cuts in government spending. According to market estimates, there is a possibility that Mr. Trump's stance on tax policies will become more aggressive this fiscal year.
トランプ氏は選挙期間で、当選すれば米国法人税の連邦標準税率を35%から21%に恒久的に引き下げると表明し、さらに15%までに引き下げると提案したが、この優遇税率は米国内で製品を生産する企業にのみ適用される。同氏は、税制によって製造業の米国内生産回帰を促したいと考えている。トランプ氏が選挙で勝利し、上下両院を収めたことで、There is a high likelihood of significant tax cuts.
Furthermore, Mr. Besento, the US Treasury Secretary appointed by Mr. Trump, stated that implementing various tax cuts promised by Mr. Trump is a top priority for his policy. It is said to include the permanence of the "Trump tax cut" introduced as a temporary measure in 2017, the elimination of taxation on tips, social security benefits, and overtime pay.
According to Mr. Tong, the extension of the Trump tax cut and easing of some regulations in the USA economy will bring about an economic boost.Which stocks will benefit from the Trump tax cut?I think.
Which stocks will benefit from the Trump tax cut?
"Trump 2.0" The key is the permanent reduction of large-scale taxes and increase in tariffs, which industries and stocks should we pay attention to?
According to JP Morgan, President Trump's tax reduction proposal mainly targets domestic companies, so the key to determining which companies benefit from the percentage of income from the USA is crucial. However, it was pointed out that the impact of tax cuts is more limited for some companies that already have low effective tax rates.
In addition, $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$Among the constituent stocks, companies with an effective tax rate exceeding 15% and domestic revenue in the United States accounting for over 80% of total revenue benefit from tax cuts. These companies mainly focus on the financial and manufacturing industries, followed by the sectors of daily necessities, non-daily necessities, and health care.
Financial
On November 6th, the day President Trump's election was announced, financial sector stocks in the USA stock market showed a significant increase at the opening of trading. $KBW Nasdaq Bank Index (.BKX.US)$soared more than 10%, reaching the highest level since the beginning of 2022.
Investors widely expect that President Trump's tax reduction and tariff policies will lead to the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) maintaining high interest rates.This expectation has caused a sharp increase in US bond yields, and the high US bond yields imply an increase in banks' net interest income, enhancing market confidence in banks' profitability.
Investors are expecting the Trump administration to relax regulations on the financial industry. Specifically, the Trump administration may further ease regulations on the amount of capital reserves banks must hold in order to reduce operating costs for financial institutions.
It was six industries: industrial, technology, etc. Among them, the five industries other than technology all exceeded their respective ratios. Most of the tech stocks had performance within the range of market expectations, but some tech stocks had lower than expected performance and their stock prices were weak.
During the election campaign, Mr. Trump advocated for "new American industrialism," reducing taxes for industrial companies in the United States and imposing tariffs on industrial companies outside the United States. The movement aims to support local manufacturers. According to reports, the "New American Industrialism" plan may involve lowering the tax rate for local manufacturers from 21% to 15%, imposing a uniform tariff of 10-20% on imported products, relaxing regulations on local manufacturers, and providing land to potential investors.During the election campaign, Mr. Trump advocated for "new American industrialism," reducing taxes for industrial companies in the United States and imposing tariffs on industrial companies outside the United States. The movement aims to support local manufacturers. According to reports, the "New American Industrialism" plan may involve lowering the tax rate for local manufacturers from 21% to 15%, imposing a uniform tariff of 10-20% on imported products, relaxing regulations on local manufacturers, and providing land to potential investors.During the election campaign, Mr. Trump advocated for "new American industrialism," reducing taxes for industrial companies in the United States and imposing tariffs on industrial companies outside the United States. The movement aims to support local manufacturers. According to reports, the "New American Industrialism" plan may involve lowering the tax rate for local manufacturers from 21% to 15%, imposing a uniform tariff of 10-20% on imported products, relaxing regulations on local manufacturers, and providing land to potential investors.During the election campaign, Mr. Trump advocated for "new American industrialism," reducing taxes for industrial companies in the United States and imposing tariffs on industrial companies outside the United States. The movement aims to support local manufacturers. According to reports, the "New American Industrialism" plan may involve lowering the tax rate for local manufacturers from 21% to 15%, imposing a uniform tariff of 10-20% on imported products, relaxing regulations on local manufacturers, and providing land to potential investors.stated.
During the election campaign, Mr. Trump advocated for "new American industrialism," reducing taxes for industrial companies in the United States and imposing tariffs on industrial companies outside the United States. The movement aims to support local manufacturers. According to reports, the "New American Industrialism" plan may involve lowering the tax rate for local manufacturers from 21% to 15%, imposing a uniform tariff of 10-20% on imported products, relaxing regulations on local manufacturers, and providing land to potential investors.
Necessities and non-necessities of life
Tax cuts have a positive impact on the American economy.Reducing corporate and personal income taxes pushes up corporate profitability and residents' disposable income, stimulating domestic investment activities and consumer demand. .
Looking back at the tax reform implemented during the Trump administration, corporate profits surged significantly within just six months of its implementation, leading to an expansion of consumer demand.
Health Care
During the previous term of President Trump, he worked to encourage the return of large amounts of capital held overseas by American companies to the homeland.Significantly lowered the tax rates on corporate M&A tax and overseas repatriation funds.
For many years, major American pharmaceutical companies have had a tendency to use overseas capital for acquiring overseas companies rather than facing a high tax rate of 35% when repatriating funds to their home country. In contrast, Trump's proposal is to significantly reduce the repatriation tax rate to 10% and encourage companies to expand employment and increase investment by using a portion of the funds for that purpose.This proposal is aimed at lowering the repatriation tax rate to 10% in order to encourage companies to use a portion of their funds to expand employment and increase investment.
Sources: JP Morgan, Bloomberg, moomoo
This article utilizes auto-translation in some parts.
ーMoomoo news Kouchi
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