TSLA
Tesla
-- 421.060 NVDA
NVIDIA
-- 134.700 PLTR
Palantir
-- 80.550 AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
-- 119.210 OXY
Occidental Petroleum
-- 47.130 "Trump 2.0 market" starts! A major feature on "stocks to cry for and stocks to laugh for"! Which stocks benefit the most from tax cuts and deregulation?
"Trump 2.0 market." 'which led to'started.On November 6th, the day Mr. Trump won the U.S. presidential election, the U.S. marketRisk-onhas become. The Trump administration'stax cuts, deregulation, and tariff policies are expected to boost the US economy and corporate profits, leading toexpectations. As a result,rallying stocks and a strong dollarhave advanced. The start of the Trump 2.0 administration will be in January next year, and it will be necessary to monitor the extent of policy implementation but for now, the expectations for policies seem to continue.
After confirming the situation on the first day of the 'Trump 2.0 market,'taking into account the Trump administration's policiesPick up "stocks to cry and stocks to laugh at".[AgroScience Segment] Herbicides saw a significant decrease due to the sales period being brought forward compared to the previous year for agricultural land and golf courses, but revenues increased due to strong demand for railroads and home gardening.
Movement to incorporate President Trump's promises of tax cuts, deregulation, tariffs, and immigration policies
⇒Trump's policies have the potential to stimulate economic growth, corporate profits, and inflation simultaneously
●Stock price rise
Tax cuts have a positive impact on economic growth and corporate profits.
◇Dow Inc.: Rises 3.6%
◇S&P500: Rises 2.5%
◇nasdaq 100: +2.7% increase
◇russell 2000: +5.8% increase
Tax cuts have a positive impact on economic growth and corporate profits.
◇Dow Inc.: Rises 3.6%
◇S&P500: Rises 2.5%
◇nasdaq 100: +2.7% increase
◇russell 2000: +5.8% increase
●rising interest rates, strong dollar
Tax cuts lead to economic growth and fiscal deficit expansion, while tariff hikes lead to inflationary pressures.
◇10-year government bond yields.Surging from the 4.2% range to the 4.4% range.
◇dollars：The largest increase since 2020, the dollar index has risen by 1.3%.
◇Commodity: Due to the strong dollar, commodities such as crude oil, copper, and gold have declined.
●Bitcoin at its peak
Mr. Trump promises to make the USA the world's leading Bitcoin country by adopting cryptocurrencies during his election campaign.
Tax cuts lead to economic growth and fiscal deficit expansion, while tariff hikes lead to inflationary pressures.
◇10-year government bond yields.Surging from the 4.2% range to the 4.4% range.
◇dollars：The largest increase since 2020, the dollar index has risen by 1.3%.
◇Commodity: Due to the strong dollar, commodities such as crude oil, copper, and gold have declined.
●Bitcoin at its peak
Mr. Trump promises to make the USA the world's leading Bitcoin country by adopting cryptocurrencies during his election campaign.
The characteristics of President Trump's economic policies include boosting the economy through tax cuts for corporations and individuals, as well as prioritizing domestic interests seen in tariff hikes. Therefore, this is positive for the overall US economy and US stocks in general, but there is a possibility that cyclical stocks and reshoring-related securities may benefit more.
Financial stocks
Financial markets may benefit from economic policies prioritizing tax cuts and national interests, with the potential for deregulation related to capital controls and M&A to provide tailwinds. The impact on performance due to interest rate trends (uncertainty) may be offset by deregulation. In recent earnings reports, many US banks have generated interest income exceeding market expectations despite rate cuts.
Related Stocks
☆ $Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$
☆ $JPMorgan (JPM.US)$
☆ $Vanguard Financials ETF (VFH.US)$
Financial markets may benefit from economic policies prioritizing tax cuts and national interests, with the potential for deregulation related to capital controls and M&A to provide tailwinds. The impact on performance due to interest rate trends (uncertainty) may be offset by deregulation. In recent earnings reports, many US banks have generated interest income exceeding market expectations despite rate cuts.
Related Stocks
☆ $Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$
☆ $JPMorgan (JPM.US)$
☆ $Vanguard Financials ETF (VFH.US)$
● Reshoring-related Stocks
President Trump's policy of domestic manufacturing resurgence and emphasis on domestic companies is expected to greatly benefit reshoring-related stocks.
Related Stocks
☆ $First Trust Rba American Industrial Renaissance Etf (AIRR.US)$
President Trump's policy of domestic manufacturing resurgence and emphasis on domestic companies is expected to greatly benefit reshoring-related stocks.
Related Stocks
☆ $First Trust Rba American Industrial Renaissance Etf (AIRR.US)$
● Railroad and infrastructure-related stocks
Policies that prioritize economic stimulus and the domestic economy are expected to greatly benefit railroads and infrastructure-related stocks, which are sensitive to the domestic economy.
Related Stocks
☆ $CSX Corp (CSX.US)$
☆ $Union Pacific (UNP.US)$
☆ $Norfolk Southern (NSC.US)$
☆ $CRH PLC (CRH.US)$
☆ $Vulcan Materials (VMC.US)$
Policies that prioritize economic stimulus and the domestic economy are expected to greatly benefit railroads and infrastructure-related stocks, which are sensitive to the domestic economy.
Related Stocks
☆ $CSX Corp (CSX.US)$
☆ $Union Pacific (UNP.US)$
☆ $Norfolk Southern (NSC.US)$
☆ $CRH PLC (CRH.US)$
☆ $Vulcan Materials (VMC.US)$
- Aviation and Leisure related stocks
With economic stimulus measures such as tax cuts, if the economic outlook brightens further, there is a possibility of encouraging individual leisure consumption. This could be a positive factor for aviation and leisure-related stocks.
Related Stocks
☆ $Delta Air Lines (DAL.US)$
☆ $United Airlines (UAL.US)$
☆ $Carnival (CCL.US)$
☆ $Booking Holdings (BKNG.US)$
With economic stimulus measures such as tax cuts, if the economic outlook brightens further, there is a possibility of encouraging individual leisure consumption. This could be a positive factor for aviation and leisure-related stocks.
Related Stocks
☆ $Delta Air Lines (DAL.US)$
☆ $United Airlines (UAL.US)$
☆ $Carnival (CCL.US)$
☆ $Booking Holdings (BKNG.US)$
- Defense-related stocks
President Trump's tough foreign policy could increase geopolitical risks. During the "Trump 1.0 administration", the budget proposal included a 10% increase in defense spending, which could benefit defense-related stocks.
Related Stocks
President Trump's tough foreign policy could increase geopolitical risks. During the "Trump 1.0 administration", the budget proposal included a 10% increase in defense spending, which could benefit defense-related stocks.
Related Stocks
● top pick for australian small/mid cap
Australian small/mid cap stocks may benefit more from Trump's focus on the domestic economy. Compared to large-cap stocks with many global companies, small/mid cap stocks tend to have a lower overseas exposure and higher correlation with domestic economic trends. Considering the high valuation of large-cap stocks, the Russell 2000 index is still trading at a historical average level, suggesting that there may still be room for growth in small/mid caps. However, if interest rates continue to rise, small/mid cap stocks with high debt ratios may be more vulnerable than large-cap stocks. It is important to monitor interest rate trends.
Related Stocks
Australian small/mid cap stocks may benefit more from Trump's focus on the domestic economy. Compared to large-cap stocks with many global companies, small/mid cap stocks tend to have a lower overseas exposure and higher correlation with domestic economic trends. Considering the high valuation of large-cap stocks, the Russell 2000 index is still trading at a historical average level, suggesting that there may still be room for growth in small/mid caps. However, if interest rates continue to rise, small/mid cap stocks with high debt ratios may be more vulnerable than large-cap stocks. It is important to monitor interest rate trends.
Related Stocks
● Major US tech stocks 'M7'
・During the 'Trump 1.0 administration', there seemed to be inconsistency in views and policies regarding the high-tech sector, such as criticizing major tech companies. However, it is natural that major US tech stocks will benefit from Trump's tax reduction measures.
・Mr. Trump has stated that during this election campaign, he intends to overturn many of the policies of the Biden administration. Regarding the strict enforcement policies of antitrust laws and the strengthening of AI regulations by the Biden administration, Mr. Trump may possibly relax them.
・Considering factors such as innovation strength and high profit margins, it is believed that major US tech stocks may achieve performance surpassing the market even in the 'Trump 2.0 market'.
Related Stocks
☆ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$
☆ $Tesla (TSLA.US)$
☆ $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$
☆ $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$
☆ $Amazon (AMZN.US)$
☆ $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$
☆ $Meta Platforms (META.US)$
☆ $Apple (AAPL.US)$
・During the 'Trump 1.0 administration', there seemed to be inconsistency in views and policies regarding the high-tech sector, such as criticizing major tech companies. However, it is natural that major US tech stocks will benefit from Trump's tax reduction measures.
・Mr. Trump has stated that during this election campaign, he intends to overturn many of the policies of the Biden administration. Regarding the strict enforcement policies of antitrust laws and the strengthening of AI regulations by the Biden administration, Mr. Trump may possibly relax them.
・Considering factors such as innovation strength and high profit margins, it is believed that major US tech stocks may achieve performance surpassing the market even in the 'Trump 2.0 market'.
Related Stocks
☆ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$
☆ $Tesla (TSLA.US)$
☆ $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$
☆ $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$
☆ $Amazon (AMZN.US)$
☆ $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$
☆ $Meta Platforms (META.US)$
☆ $Apple (AAPL.US)$
☆ nvidia
・There is a possibility that President Trump may strengthen export restrictions on semiconductors to China, which could be a significant challenge for semiconductor stocks. However, despite the United States having strengthened semiconductor export regulations to China over the past few years, NVIDIA has continued to deliver strong performance. The China ratio has already significantly decreased, benefiting more from the AI boom in the United States.
・In the latest financial results, major US tech companies have indicated their intention to expand investment in AI, which is expected to continue to provide tailwinds for the company. If stock prices adjust due to Trump's strengthened export regulations to China, it may be a buying opportunity if the business environment surrounding AI semiconductors remains unchanged.
・In the latest financial results, major US tech companies have indicated their intention to expand investment in AI, which is expected to continue to provide tailwinds for the company. If stock prices adjust due to Trump's strengthened export regulations to China, it may be a buying opportunity if the business environment surrounding AI semiconductors remains unchanged.
(Regarding the outlook for AI, the CEO of a major AI software company $Palantir (PLTR.US)$ In the latest financial results, the CEO stated, "This is just the beginning. The world is now in the midst of a US-led AI revolution, with industries and economies being rebuilt." Related article:Parantia soars 23% with record profits! "We are at the forefront of the AI revolution."）
☆ Tesla
・Tesla has become the most prominent "Trump stock" this time around. Trump's victory is expected to bring many benefits to Elon Musk's SpaceX. SpaceX is estimated to have contracts with the US government worth over 15 billion dollars over the past decade.
・As for Tesla, Trump has campaigned for the abolition of EV sales promotion measures, which could have a negative impact. If the "Trump 2.0" administration eliminates EV subsidies, it is expected to be negative for the industry as a whole. However, Tesla, as the industry leader with economies of scale, may be less impacted compared to other EV manufacturers, potentially recovering the market share decline experienced in a subsidy-free competitive environment.
・Elon Musk, CEO known as a supporter of former President Trump, has made substantial contributions to Trump. Trump once said in August of this year, "I support EV. I have no choice, because Elon has supported me very strongly." It was reported by WSJ that "with Trump's victory Musk may also be involved in the regulation of self-driving cars, which will be key to Tesla's growth."
・As for Tesla, Trump has campaigned for the abolition of EV sales promotion measures, which could have a negative impact. If the "Trump 2.0" administration eliminates EV subsidies, it is expected to be negative for the industry as a whole. However, Tesla, as the industry leader with economies of scale, may be less impacted compared to other EV manufacturers, potentially recovering the market share decline experienced in a subsidy-free competitive environment.
・Elon Musk, CEO known as a supporter of former President Trump, has made substantial contributions to Trump. Trump once said in August of this year, "I support EV. I have no choice, because Elon has supported me very strongly." It was reported by WSJ that "with Trump's victory Musk may also be involved in the regulation of self-driving cars, which will be key to Tesla's growth."
● Bitcoin-related stocks
「Bitcoin surpasses $76,000! All-time high updated. With the return of the Trump administration, there is a tailwind blowing in the cryptocurrency industry!Please refer to the article.
「Bitcoin surpasses $76,000! All-time high updated. With the return of the Trump administration, there is a tailwind blowing in the cryptocurrency industry!Please refer to the article.
● Renewable energy-related stocks
・Former President Trump denies that climate change is the result of burning fossil fuels. During the election period, he criticized the Democratic Party's climate change measures as a 'new green scam'. Therefore, it is expected that the current Biden administration's green policies will be overturned. This could be a significant factor for renewable energy-related stocks.
・Renewable energy-related electrical utility stocks have continued to rise thanks to the rapid expansion of demand due to the construction rush of AI data centers. Profit-taking selling has accelerated following Mr. Trump's victory, and uncertainty surrounding green policies is likely to be a burden for a while. On the other hand, there may be opportunities to invest while keeping an eye on policy trends, as AI demand is expected to continue in the future.
Related Stocks
☆ $NextEra Energy (NEE.US)$
☆ $The AES Corp (AES.US)$
・Former President Trump denies that climate change is the result of burning fossil fuels. During the election period, he criticized the Democratic Party's climate change measures as a 'new green scam'. Therefore, it is expected that the current Biden administration's green policies will be overturned. This could be a significant factor for renewable energy-related stocks.
・Renewable energy-related electrical utility stocks have continued to rise thanks to the rapid expansion of demand due to the construction rush of AI data centers. Profit-taking selling has accelerated following Mr. Trump's victory, and uncertainty surrounding green policies is likely to be a burden for a while. On the other hand, there may be opportunities to invest while keeping an eye on policy trends, as AI demand is expected to continue in the future.
Related Stocks
☆ $NextEra Energy (NEE.US)$
☆ $The AES Corp (AES.US)$
● A-reit ETF
While Trump's policies could potentially boost the economy, they may also increase the fiscal deficit, leading to a possible rise in interest rates. Consequently, it is expected that mortgage interest rates will also increase, becoming a significant factor for a-reit etf. However, there are also expectations for enhanced tax incentives for residential construction companies, so the impact on a-reit etf due to mixed material strengths and weaknesses needs to be carefully assessed in the future.
While Trump's policies could potentially boost the economy, they may also increase the fiscal deficit, leading to a possible rise in interest rates. Consequently, it is expected that mortgage interest rates will also increase, becoming a significant factor for a-reit etf. However, there are also expectations for enhanced tax incentives for residential construction companies, so the impact on a-reit etf due to mixed material strengths and weaknesses needs to be carefully assessed in the future.
・Due to the "Trump trend" continuing for over a month until the election, there is a possibility of profit-taking sell-offs at some point.
・If the rise in government bond yields continues, there is a possibility of restraining the rise in the stock market.
・The 'Trump 2.0' administration, when compared to 'Trump 1.0', may have a wider range and higher tariff rates. Tax cuts may be more targeted.
・President Trump's policies could fuel inflation and potentially slow down the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts. It's worth noting that the Federal Reserve decided to cut rates by 0.25% on November 7th. Chairman Powell mentioned that the pace of future rate cuts will depend on the data, and did not hint at stopping the rate cuts.
Regarding the market trend after the U.S. presidential election, based on past experiences, "the first year of a president's term tends to go well, with most showing a double-digit increase.""
"The following periods will be significant to watch: "The presidential inauguration on January 20 next year, where President Trump's inaugural speech and a series of presidential orders may be issued from late January to early February, presenting a crucial period to assess the direction of the Trump administration."
Related Article:After his comeback, what points should we pay attention to regarding former President Trump's reign as USA president? Will the rise in US stocks continue until next year?
Related Article:After his comeback, what points should we pay attention to regarding former President Trump's reign as USA president? Will the rise in US stocks continue until next year?
Created on November 8, 2024 by Market Analyst Julie
Source: Created by moomoo Securities based on Bloomberg and various sources
Source: Created by moomoo Securities based on Bloomberg and various sources
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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