Trump's Election Odds Surge After Assassination Attempt: Where Are the Opportunities for Trump Trades?

After shooting, Bitcoin price briefly surpassed $63,000. $Trump Media & Technology(DJT.US)$ surged over 70% in Monday's pre-market trading, along with rallying crypto stocks. $CleanSpark(CLSK.US)$, $Marathon Digital(MARA.US)$, and $Coinbase(COIN.US)$ all rose over 5%, with $MicroStrategy(MSTR.US)$ up over 8%. Notably, after Musk tweeted his support for Trump multiple times over the weekend, Tesla surged over 5% in pre-market trading on Monday.

Trump's increase in tariffs and fiscal stimulus are widely seen as positive for the US dollar and bearish for US bonds. After the assassination attempt, investors increased their bets on Trump's victory, causing the US dollar to rise and US bonds to fall. The yield on $U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield(US10Y.BD)$ rose 6 bps to 4.24%, and the spread between the two-year bond widened to the highest level since January.

However, $Tesla(TSLA.US)$ may become a beneficiary of Trump's campaign. Market analysts believe that Trump's election may result in higher tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers, which could be a good thing for Tesla. Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush, recently said on CNBC: "Trump's election as president will ultimately benefit Tesla and harm electric vehicles... especially if you start to see a reduction in electric vehicle tax rebates."

· $Trump Media & Technology(DJT.US)$: In 2021, after being banned by Facebook and Twitter, Donald Trump founded Trump Media & Technology Group. In 2022, the company launched a social media platform called "Truth Social," similar to Twitter. In March 2024, the company went public on NASDAQ through a merger with Digital World Acquisition Corp.

· $Phunware(PHUN.US)$: The company's relationship with Donald Trump dates back to 2020 when it announced that it was developing, releasing, and continuously managing a mobile application portfolio for his 2020 re-election campaign.

· $Rumble(RUM.US)$: The company established a distribution partnership with Truth Social, providing it with video and streaming services.

Financial companies such as $JPMorgan(JPM.US)$ and $Bank of America(BAC.US)$; traditional energy companies such as $Cheniere Energy(LNG.US)$, $Exxon Mobil(XOM.US)$, $ConocoPhillips(COP.US)$, $Chevron(CVX.US)$, $Occidental Petroleum(OXY.US)$, and $Peabody Energy(BTU.US)$; insurance companies such as $UnitedHealth(UNH.US)$ and $Humana(HUM.US)$; biopharmaceutical companies such as $Eli Lilly and Co(LLY.US)$ and $Merck & Co(MRK.US)$; manufacturing companies such as $Intel(INTC.US)$, $Texas Instruments(TXN.US)$, $Applied Materials(AMAT.US)$, $KLA Corp(KLAC.US)$, $Ford Motor(F.US)$, $General Motors(GM.US)$, $Nucor(NUE.US)$, and $Steel Dynamics(STLD.US)$, which benefit from trade protection policies; $Fluor(FLR.US)$, which benefits from stricter immigration policies; and agricultural equipment companies such as $Tractor Supply(TSCO.US)$ and $Deere(DE.US)$.