Trump's Election Odds Surge After Assassination Attempt: Where Are the Opportunities for Trump Trades?
On Saturday, Donald Trump was shot at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania, which could be a key moment that completely disrupts the US election landscape this year. Following the incident, data from Polymarket shows that Trump's chances of winning the election have skyrocketed to 71%.
After shooting, Bitcoin price briefly surpassed $63,000. $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$ surged over 70% in Monday's pre-market trading, along with rallying crypto stocks. $CleanSpark (CLSK.US)$, $MARA Holdings (MARA.US)$, and $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ all rose over 5%, with $MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$ up over 8%. Notably, after Musk tweeted his support for Trump multiple times over the weekend, Tesla surged over 5% in pre-market trading on Monday.
1) US Dollar and Treasury
Trump's increase in tariffs and fiscal stimulus are widely seen as positive for the US dollar and bearish for US bonds. After the assassination attempt, investors increased their bets on Trump's victory, causing the US dollar to rise and US bonds to fall. The yield on $U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$ rose 6 bps to 4.24%, and the spread between the two-year bond widened to the highest level since January.
"If the yield curve steepens without an economic number, then that indicates the market believes this helps Trump’s chances." said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers.
“For us, the news does reinforce that Trump’s the frontrunner,” said Mark McCormick, global head of foreign-exchange and emerging-market strategy at Toronto Dominion Bank. “We remain US dollar bulls for the second half and early 2025.”
2) Stock
Tesla may become a beneficiary
Last month, Trump publicly stated that he would completely reverse Biden's electric vehicle policy. He promised during his campaign that if he was elected President, he would immediately repeal Biden's climate bill, increase investment in fossil fuels, and revoke regulations aimed at accelerating the transition to electric vehicles.
However, $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ may become a beneficiary of Trump's campaign. Market analysts believe that Trump's election may result in higher tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers, which could be a good thing for Tesla. Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush, recently said on CNBC: "Trump's election as president will ultimately benefit Tesla and harm electric vehicles... especially if you start to see a reduction in electric vehicle tax rebates."
Trump-linked companies
· $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$: In 2021, after being banned by Facebook and Twitter, Donald Trump founded Trump Media & Technology Group. In 2022, the company launched a social media platform called "Truth Social," similar to Twitter. In March 2024, the company went public on NASDAQ through a merger with Digital World Acquisition Corp.
· $Phunware (PHUN.US)$: The company's relationship with Donald Trump dates back to 2020 when it announced that it was developing, releasing, and continuously managing a mobile application portfolio for his 2020 re-election campaign.
· $Rumble (RUM.US)$: The company established a distribution partnership with Truth Social, providing it with video and streaming services.
Companies Set to Gain from Trump's Policy Proposals
Donald Trump's policy proposals include supporting infrastructure development, promoting "Made in America" and traditional manufacturing industries such as oil and gas, advocating for tighter immigration policies, and insisting on an "America First" trade policy, with more aggressive high tariff policies.
If Trump returns to the White House, these companies may benefit from his policy proposals.
Financial companies such as $JPMorgan (JPM.US)$ and $Bank of America (BAC.US)$; traditional energy companies such as $Cheniere Energy (LNG.US)$, $Exxon Mobil (XOM.US)$, $ConocoPhillips (COP.US)$, $Chevron (CVX.US)$, $Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$, and $Peabody Energy (BTU.US)$; insurance companies such as $UnitedHealth (UNH.US)$ and $Humana (HUM.US)$; biopharmaceutical companies such as $Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US)$ and $Merck & Co (MRK.US)$; manufacturing companies such as $Intel (INTC.US)$, $Texas Instruments (TXN.US)$, $Applied Materials (AMAT.US)$, $KLA Corp (KLAC.US)$, $Ford Motor (F.US)$, $General Motors (GM.US)$, $Nucor (NUE.US)$, and $Steel Dynamics (STLD.US)$, which benefit from trade protection policies; $Fluor (FLR.US)$, which benefits from stricter immigration policies; and agricultural equipment companies such as $Tractor Supply (TSCO.US)$ and $Deere (DE.US)$.
3) Crypto
Trump has expressed full support for cryptocurrencies during his campaign, and as a non-traditional safe-haven asset, cryptocurrencies are also an important part of "Trump trades".
In early June, he met with a group of 12 bitcoin mining executives and experts at the Mar-a-Lago Club. During the meeting, he not only pledged to become an advocate for the cryptocurrency mining industry upon his return to the White House, but also made a promise that all future bitcoins will be minted in the United States. Trump believes that promoting the manufacturing and trading of bitcoin in the US will not only bolster the country's position in the global cryptocurrency market, but also stimulate the development of related industries and inject new momentum into the US economy.
Recently, according to two sources familiar with the matter cited by Axios, Donald Trump is planning to attend the annual Bitcoin (BTC) conference in late July 2024 and negotiate the possibility of delivering a speech at the event.
Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra, analysts from Bernstein pointed out that a win by Trump in this year's election could lead to a crypto rally driven by institutional adoption and a more favorable regulatory landscape: “If the election sentiment shifts more Republican, crypto would end up as the primary 'Trump trade' and hopes of a favorable regulatory regime would change the 'use-case' narrative around blockchains.”
Standard Chartered's Head of Digital Assets Research, Geoff Kendrick expected that bitcoin may hit the $100,000 mark as the U.S. presidential election approaches in November. Furthermore, if Trump is re-elected, the price could increase to $150,000 by the end of 2024.
by moomoo News Olivia
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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White_Shadow :
Mark Paluzzi White_Shadow : fake news he got cut falling down!
david Roberts7 : you go mr. president
70729743 :
sick4cash : He was almost assassinated By a conservative, what are you talking about?His own people
Muntri George sick4cash : Trump loves AR-15 rifle gun. It's shoots chilli kechup too!![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
PAUL BIN ANTHONY : very helpful thanks again hope this helps make sure myself first and second give you family food and bigger than from your system and the world help Asian together with this tq God bless
Rollinator Muntri George : The shooter was not a conservative. Get yourself educated. Vote Trump!
Rollinator sick4cash : Do your own research, the shooter was not conservative. Vote Trump!
Muntri George Rollinator : Allahuakbar..! The scene...!![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
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