Trump's tariffs 2.0 are eager to move, taking stock of the winners and losers in the Malaysian stock market (2).
Compiled report: @Jungle lee
Content: Chinese
The general situation of the U.S. election has been determined. Trump will return to become the 47th president and will be inaugurated on January 20, 2025. Analysts believe that the victory of the "madman" president can reduce the uncertainty brought by the election results and also benefit areas such as Malaysian plantations, gloves, technology, and transportation.
Link Chang International Investment Bank analysts pointed out that with Trump's victory, from November to December, a new presidential transition period will begin. At that time, Trump can use this time to form his cabinet, streamline personnel and institutions, and introduce a series of policy directions next year.
Current policies that may have a certain impact on Malaysia include the Trump administration's plan to impose tariffs of 10% to 20% on imports, while China's tariffs could be as high as 60%; another issue that may arise is interference in ending the Russia-Ukraine war.
Analysts suggest that the U.S. dollar index may appreciate by 2% to 3%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield may fall by 20 basis points.
In addition, the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate dot plot may change. However, due to persistent inflation decline and falling energy prices, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is likely to continue to maintain a dovish stance.
Most importantly, after the US presidential election, any uncertainties are starting to dissipate, and it is expected that funds will start flowing into the market. This is bullish news for the Malaysian stock market, as prior to the election, the composite index was affected by arbitrage sentiment, and has been in a state of retracement.
分析员也借此分析了特朗普政府的政策，会对大马产生的潜在影响。Link Chang International Investment Bank analysts pointed out that with Trump's victory, from November to December, a new presidential transition period will begin. At that time, Trump can use this time to form his cabinet, streamline personnel and institutions, and introduce a series of policy directions next year.
Current policies that may have a certain impact on Malaysia include the Trump administration's plan to impose tariffs of 10% to 20% on imports, while China's tariffs could be as high as 60%; another issue that may arise is interference in ending the Russia-Ukraine war.
Analysts suggest that the U.S. dollar index may appreciate by 2% to 3%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield may fall by 20 basis points.
In addition, the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate dot plot may change. However, due to persistent inflation decline and falling energy prices, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is likely to continue to maintain a dovish stance.
Most importantly, after the US presidential election, any uncertainties are starting to dissipate, and it is expected that funds will start flowing into the market. This is bullish news for the Malaysian stock market, as prior to the election, the composite index was affected by arbitrage sentiment, and has been in a state of retracement.
潜在赢家：
■种植板块
-如果中国对美国大豆加征关税，届时中国商家会转向其他食用油，从而提振对棕油需求。
-如果特朗普成功促成俄乌停战，届时地缘政治风险降低，或有利于食用油贸易。
-推荐公司包括SD牙直利 $SDG (5285.MY)$ 、IOI集团 $IOICORP (1961.MY)$ Synthetic planting $HSPLANT (5138.MY)$ and Daan $TAANN (5012.MY)$ 。
■ Glove Sector
- The strengthening of the US dollar is beneficial to Malaysian glove manufacturers. If the US imposes tariffs on Chinese gloves, the demand for Malaysian gloves may increase.
- Recommended companies include Hartalega $HARTA (5168.MY)$ and Top Glove $TOPGLOV (7113.MY)$ 。
■Technology Sector
- Malaysia's technology sector may accelerate supply chain expansion, benefiting equipment and automation equipment providers such as Vitrox Corporation and Pentamaster $VITROX (0097.MY)$ and JCY $GENETEC (0104.MY)$ are advantageous.
- The 60% tariff on Chinese imported goods may prompt the supply chain to shift from North Asia, benefiting Malaysia and Vietnam, advantageous for Malaysia's electrical components services (EMS), semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT), and automated test equipment (ATE) suppliers.
- The strengthening of the US dollar against the Ringgit is also beneficial for the related sectors, but China's retaliatory measures may pose challenges.
■Transportation Sector
- Imposing higher tariffs on Chinese goods may accelerate trade diversification, benefiting Westports Holdings $WPRTS (5246.MY)$ Under the China Plus One strategy, it attracts foreign direct investment (FDI) and drives Malaysia's export and FDI trends.
- Recommended companies include Westports Holdings.
■ Gambling Sector
- If the Singapore dollar and the US dollar strengthen, Genting Sing may benefit, especially since Genting Singapore accounts for 99% of the group's core net income in 2023. $GENTING (3182.MY)$ - However, the impact on Genting Malaysia is limited, as the profit from Resorts World New York casino may be offset by losses from Empire Resorts.
- Recommended companies include Genting Malaysia. $GENM (4715.MY)$ - The impact on Genting Malaysia is limited because the profits from Resorts World New York casino may be offset by losses from Empire Resorts.
- Recommended companies include Genting Malaysia.
■ Public Utilities Sector
- Trump's policies on national energy bring neutral effects $TENAGA (5347.MY)$ but if the new selling price and the USD strengthen, it may be beneficial for Yang Zhongli Power $YTLPOWR (6742.MY)$ due to the outstanding performance of its Singapore subsidiaries.
- Recommended companies are national energy and Yang Zhongli Power.
■ Medical Care Sector
- If the new selling price and the USD strengthen, it is expected to have a positive impact on the IIHH Medical Group $IHH (5225.MY)$ mainly due to the increased proportion of its business in Singapore.
IHH Medical Group is recommended as the company.
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Potential losers
■ Automobile Sector
- The possible strength of the USD against the Malaysian Ringgit may increase import costs, which could lower the profitability of the automotive industry.
- Domestic tightening of monetary policy due to inflationary pressures may lead to higher interest rates, thereby affecting consumers' ability to bear the expense of purchasing cars in the automotive market.
- If the United States imposes a 60% tariff on Chinese imported goods, the Chinese economy may be suppressed, leading to reduced consumer spending, which could impact Sinarmas' business in the automotive sector in China. $SIME (4197.MY)$ - If the United States imposes a 60% tariff on Chinese imported goods, the Chinese economy may be suppressed, leading to reduced consumer spending, which could impact Sinarmas' business in the automotive sector in China.
-Oil & gas sector
-Trump's energy policy generally supports the expansion of domestic oil production in the United States, planning to increase exploration permits and relax environmental regulations to boost output.
-Trump plans to cut some key provisions in the "Inflation Reduction Act" (such as clean energy tax incentives), which will reduce the U.S. participation in global climate initiatives.
-Global oil prices may remain stable, with Brent crude forecasted to be between $73 and $75 per barrel next year.
-Global production growth, along with reduced Chinese demand and no major geopolitical conflicts, are expected to keep oil prices within this range.
##############
Neutral
-Banks sector
-尽管中国经济存在不确定性，分析员对丰隆银行 $HLBANK (5819.MY)$ 的前景仍持积极看法，认为其中国合资企业的潜在放缓，已反映在股价里。
-推荐公司，包括丰隆银行、大马银行 $AMBANK (1015.MY)$ 和马银行 $MAYBANK (1155.MY)$ 。
■电信板块
-美元走强可能导致亚通 $AXIATA (6888.MY)$ Incurred foreign exchange losses, as its debts are denominated in US dollars.
Recommended companies include Tianditong Digital Network $CDB (6947.MY)$ and Mingxun $MAXIS (6012.MY)$ 。
■ Consumer Sector
- The strong US dollar may increase export income, but the additional costs of imported goods and raw materials may offset this positive development.
- Recommended companies include Farm Fresh $FFB (5306.MY)$ and Mr.DIY $MRDIY (5296.MY)$ And aeon stores $AEON (6599.MY)$ 。
■ Production trust sector
- The United States imposing a 60% tariff on Chinese goods may weaken the Chinese economy, reduce the number of Chinese tourists, and adversely affect retail and hotel sectors.
- The recommended company for Genting sing production trust $SUNREIT (5176.MY)$ 。
■ Industrial sector
- Overall, the impact on the industrial sector is neutral, but the tariff increase on gloves manufactured in China may affect Top Glove $MAHSING (8583.MY)$ The glove manufacturing business is advantageous.
■ Building material sector
- If there is a full-scale trade war between China and the United States, the Malaysian building materials industry may be affected, but it is expected that after Trump's reelection, the likelihood of imposing more tariffs on Chinese steel is low.
- Key risks include new tariffs covering non-Chinese markets, blocking evasion measures, and the continuous strengthening of the US dollar, which may suppress basic metals in the global recovery.
Developers entering the industrial sector will benefit
Analysts also predict that the ASEAN region will be in a favorable position, and Malaysian developers with strategic layouts in the industrial sector will see new opportunities.
Industrial Bank research analysts believe that with the dust settled on the US presidential election, the expectation is that the tense trade situation between the US and China will continue, or even escalate further.
The report points out that the ASEAN region, as a key location for global trade, is expected to attract more foreign direct investment (FDI), which will benefit local developers involved in the industrial sector.
“回看之前‘特朗普1.0’时期，即2017至2021年，我们观察到大量制造业活动从东亚和欧洲国家，扩张或迁移至该区域。”Analysts also predict that the ASEAN region will be in a favorable position, and Malaysian developers with strategic layouts in the industrial sector will see new opportunities.
Industrial Bank research analysts believe that with the dust settled on the US presidential election, the expectation is that the tense trade situation between the US and China will continue, or even escalate further.
The report points out that the ASEAN region, as a key location for global trade, is expected to attract more foreign direct investment (FDI), which will benefit local developers involved in the industrial sector.
分析员称，当时部分大马工业园开发商，像是位于柔佛的i-Park和努沙再也科技园，经历了工业地块和工厂需求的急剧增加。
鉴于此，分析员预计未来几年内，美国可能实施的潜在关税将影响某些行业，但整体来看，跨国公司仍将东盟视为亚洲扩张计划的理想投资地。
数据中心投资照旧
“我们认为，大马的数据中心投资亦不会受到影响。从基本面来看，凭借我国中立政治立场，依然是数据中心的理想选址。”
因此，分析员认为，参与数据中心投资的公司，如森那美产业 $SIMEPROP (5288.MY)$ 和马星集团，未来仍有望吸引更多需求。
纵观这个行业，分析员认为，需求稳定的住宅市场、大型基建开发以及投资资金的流入，将继续推动行业发展。
The upcoming details of the Johor-Singapore Economic Zone (JSSEZ) and the potential Johor Bahru-Singapore High-Speed Rail (HSR) project are expected to further attract investors' interest, therefore, analysts are more inclined towards developers with industrial developments.
Analysts maintain a 'shareholding' rating, with preferred stocks including Sunway Industry, Mah Sing Group, and Top Glove. $SUNWAY (5211.MY)$ and UEM Sunrise $UEMS (5148.MY)$ 。
Trump's victory inspires a stronger US dollar.
Ringgit falls below 4.42 to a new low in nearly 3 months
Ringgit falls below 4.42 to a new low in nearly 3 months
With the release of the results of the US presidential election, the strong performance of the US dollar exchange rates inspires a significant rise, causing the Ringgit to devalue for two consecutive days, dropping to 4.4265 at one point, hitting nearly a 3-month low.
On early Thursday, the Ringgit exchange rate opened with a gap down, dropping to 4.4265 against 1 US dollar at one point, approaching the lowest level since August 16th.
In fact, since yesterday afternoon, when Trump's votes were significantly ahead, the Ringgit against the US dollar has shown a bearish trend, plummeting and breaking below the 4.40 level.
With the continuous decline over the past two days, the Ringgit exchange rate has accumulated a 1.5% decline.
On the other hand, most major Asian currencies against the US dollar were also trending downwards on Thursday, with the Thai Baht experiencing the heaviest decline at 0.73%, while the Taiwanese Dollar, the Chinese Renminbi, and the Philippine Peso had milder declines.
The Fed's rate cuts are slower.
Fenglong Investment Bank's research analysis believes that Trump's policies will bring inflationary risks, which may slow down the Fed's rate cut cycle more than previously expected.
Looking back, the Fed cut rates for the first time in many years by 50 basis points in September, with expectations of another 50 basis points cut by the end of the season, and a further 100 basis points cut in 2025.
However, with the market's increasing expectations for a milder rate cut cycle by the Fed, the narrowing trend in interest rate differentials between Malaysia and the US is slowing down, which is unfavorable to the Ringgit exchange rate.
Therefore, analysts have adjusted their year-end and full-year average forecasts for the Ringgit against the US dollar to 4.50 and 4.58 respectively, compared to the previous expectations of 4.05 and 4.50.
Despite this, we still expect the Ringgit exchange rates to appreciate next year, with year-end and full-year average targets of 4.00 and 4.34.
On early Thursday, the Ringgit exchange rate opened with a gap down, dropping to 4.4265 against 1 US dollar at one point, approaching the lowest level since August 16th.
In fact, since yesterday afternoon, when Trump's votes were significantly ahead, the Ringgit against the US dollar has shown a bearish trend, plummeting and breaking below the 4.40 level.
With the continuous decline over the past two days, the Ringgit exchange rate has accumulated a 1.5% decline.
On the other hand, most major Asian currencies against the US dollar were also trending downwards on Thursday, with the Thai Baht experiencing the heaviest decline at 0.73%, while the Taiwanese Dollar, the Chinese Renminbi, and the Philippine Peso had milder declines.
The Fed's rate cuts are slower.
Fenglong Investment Bank's research analysis believes that Trump's policies will bring inflationary risks, which may slow down the Fed's rate cut cycle more than previously expected.
Looking back, the Fed cut rates for the first time in many years by 50 basis points in September, with expectations of another 50 basis points cut by the end of the season, and a further 100 basis points cut in 2025.
However, with the market's increasing expectations for a milder rate cut cycle by the Fed, the narrowing trend in interest rate differentials between Malaysia and the US is slowing down, which is unfavorable to the Ringgit exchange rate.
Therefore, analysts have adjusted their year-end and full-year average forecasts for the Ringgit against the US dollar to 4.50 and 4.58 respectively, compared to the previous expectations of 4.05 and 4.50.
Despite this, we still expect the Ringgit exchange rates to appreciate next year, with year-end and full-year average targets of 4.00 and 4.34.
Investing huge sums to support Trump.
Is Musk reaping rewards or courting disaster?
Is Musk reaping rewards or courting disaster?
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$
In order to help Trump win the US presidential election, no billionaire has done more than Musk.
According to Bloomberg, the owner of Tesla and SpaceX will soon find out if his actions will bring rewards or lead to disaster.
The continually expanding political connections have already demonstrated Musk's courage, but this time he is gaining not just a White House ally.
Trump has promised to give him an official role responsible for cutting government spending, which will also give Musk the power to influence policies and regulate his vast corporate empire through federal agencies.
"He is very individualistic, unique, a super genius," Trump said on the eve when speaking to supporters about Musk. "We must protect our geniuses. We don't have many like him."
Regardless, Tesla's stock price has been soaring. Due to investors hoping to profit from the opportunity of Trump returning to the White House, the stock surged 15% during the US session. Musk also posted a chart on Wednesday morning, claiming that the usage of his social network X set a historical record.
"Enjoy it," he wrote in another post, attaching a satirical photo of himself carrying a water tank into an oval office, which was a tribute to when he took over Twitter by carrying a water tank into the Twitter headquarters.
Most aggressive agent
In the past few months, Musk has been Trump's most aggressive agent.
The world's richest person rallied for Trump on X, hosted a town hall meeting in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania, and appeared at Trump's Madison Square Garden rally, overshadowing even Trump's running partner, JD Vance.
To support Trump and the Republicans fiercely contesting seats in Congress, Musk contributed over 0.13 billion USD (about 0.57 billion MYR), making him one of the top donors in this election cycle.
On election day, Musk flew on a private jet from Texas to Florida after voting, watching the election results at Mar-a-Lago with Trump and his family.
Musk's political action committee released a photo of him sitting alongside Trump and UFC President Dana White.
"Elon Musk may be new to politics, but as a billionaire and tech tycoon, his full support for President Trump is significant," said Joe Devid Longo, leader of "Early Voting Action" in Pennsylvania dedicated to registering Republican voters.
Trump's victory in Pennsylvania was crucial for his overall success. He won Pennsylvania in 2016 during his first presidential campaign, but lost in the state in the 2020 election. Musk donated $1 million USD (approximately 4.4 million Malaysian Ringgit) to the "Early Voting Action".
The business empire reaps benefits.
Musk could gain significant economic benefits from the incoming Trump administration. He oversees a business empire consisting of six companies, several of which have close ties to the US federal government.
SpaceX has become an increasingly important partner of NASA and the US Department of Defense, with contracts worth billions of dollars.
Tesla is banking on developing self-driving taxis for its financial future, a high-risk business facing significant regulatory hurdles.
According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Musk's personal wealth fluctuated significantly during Biden's presidency, reaching as high as $340 billion USD (approximately 1.5 trillion Malaysian Ringgit) and as low as $124 billion USD (approximately 545.6 billion Malaysian Ringgit).
However, Musk's personal wealth overall continues to trend upward. As of election day, his net worth was $263.8 billion USD (approximately 1.16 trillion Malaysian Ringgit).
In order to help Trump win the US presidential election, no billionaire has done more than Musk.
According to Bloomberg, the owner of Tesla and SpaceX will soon find out if his actions will bring rewards or lead to disaster.
The continually expanding political connections have already demonstrated Musk's courage, but this time he is gaining not just a White House ally.
Trump has promised to give him an official role responsible for cutting government spending, which will also give Musk the power to influence policies and regulate his vast corporate empire through federal agencies.
"He is very individualistic, unique, a super genius," Trump said on the eve when speaking to supporters about Musk. "We must protect our geniuses. We don't have many like him."
Regardless, Tesla's stock price has been soaring. Due to investors hoping to profit from the opportunity of Trump returning to the White House, the stock surged 15% during the US session. Musk also posted a chart on Wednesday morning, claiming that the usage of his social network X set a historical record.
"Enjoy it," he wrote in another post, attaching a satirical photo of himself carrying a water tank into an oval office, which was a tribute to when he took over Twitter by carrying a water tank into the Twitter headquarters.
Most aggressive agent
In the past few months, Musk has been Trump's most aggressive agent.
The world's richest person rallied for Trump on X, hosted a town hall meeting in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania, and appeared at Trump's Madison Square Garden rally, overshadowing even Trump's running partner, JD Vance.
To support Trump and the Republicans fiercely contesting seats in Congress, Musk contributed over 0.13 billion USD (about 0.57 billion MYR), making him one of the top donors in this election cycle.
On election day, Musk flew on a private jet from Texas to Florida after voting, watching the election results at Mar-a-Lago with Trump and his family.
Musk's political action committee released a photo of him sitting alongside Trump and UFC President Dana White.
"Elon Musk may be new to politics, but as a billionaire and tech tycoon, his full support for President Trump is significant," said Joe Devid Longo, leader of "Early Voting Action" in Pennsylvania dedicated to registering Republican voters.
Trump's victory in Pennsylvania was crucial for his overall success. He won Pennsylvania in 2016 during his first presidential campaign, but lost in the state in the 2020 election. Musk donated $1 million USD (approximately 4.4 million Malaysian Ringgit) to the "Early Voting Action".
The business empire reaps benefits.
Musk could gain significant economic benefits from the incoming Trump administration. He oversees a business empire consisting of six companies, several of which have close ties to the US federal government.
SpaceX has become an increasingly important partner of NASA and the US Department of Defense, with contracts worth billions of dollars.
Tesla is banking on developing self-driving taxis for its financial future, a high-risk business facing significant regulatory hurdles.
According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Musk's personal wealth fluctuated significantly during Biden's presidency, reaching as high as $340 billion USD (approximately 1.5 trillion Malaysian Ringgit) and as low as $124 billion USD (approximately 545.6 billion Malaysian Ringgit).
However, Musk's personal wealth overall continues to trend upward. As of election day, his net worth was $263.8 billion USD (approximately 1.16 trillion Malaysian Ringgit).
Xi Jinping officially congratulates Trump on his election.
Looking forward to a new way for China and the USA to get along in the correct way.
Chinese President Xi Jinping phoned to congratulate the Republican candidate Trump on his election as the President of the United States, and expressed hopes that the two countries will strengthen dialogue and communication, and discover a new way for China and the USA to interact correctly in a new era.
According to Xinhua News Agency, Xi Jinping telephoned Trump on Thursday to congratulate him on his election as President of the United States.
Xi Jinping said, "History shows us that cooperation between China and the USA benefits both, while confrontation harms both. A stable, healthy, and sustainable Sino-US relationship is in the common interests of both countries and meets the expectations of the international community."
He stated that he hopes both sides uphold the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, cooperation, and mutual benefit, strengthen dialogue and communication, properly manage differences, expand mutually beneficial cooperation, find a new way for China and the USA to interact correctly in a new era, benefit both countries, and contribute to the world.
Chinese Vice President Han Zheng also called Pence on the same day to congratulate him on being elected Vice President of the United States.
CNN reported that Trump had praised Xi Jinping as a "very good friend" during his tenure, but their relationship apparently needs repair. This is because after the coronavirus outbreak, Trump directly pointed at China as the origin of the virus, and even referred to the coronavirus as the "China virus".
During this election campaign, Trump has repeatedly threatened to impose heavy taxes of 100% to 200% on imported goods from China. When questioned during an interview with The Wall Street Journal last month about whether the US would send troops to Taiwan in case of Chinese aggression, Trump refused to give a direct answer and said, "He (Xi Jinping) respects me, and also knows that I am very crazy."
Source: Nanyang Siang Pau
Disclaimer: This content is for reference and educational purposes only, and does not constitute any specific investment, investment strategy, or recommendation. Readers should bear any risks and liabilities resulting from relying on this content. Before making any investment decisions, be sure to conduct your own independent research and evaluation, and consult with professional advice when necessary. The author and related participants are not responsible for any losses or damages caused by the use or reliance on the information contained in this article.
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