Trump Trade Japan Edition, 5 themes with tailwind in “Definitely Tora”! Check out the 20 featured stocks!
Views on the re-election of former President Donald Trump have intensified in response to the attempted assassination incident on the 13th, and a “Trump trade” that assumes a “definite tiger” is progressing in the market.
So, about domestic brands5 themes and 19 related stocks that are likely to receive a tailwind from “Definitely Tora”, and 1 individual stockI will pick it up.
So, about domestic brands5 themes and 19 related stocks that are likely to receive a tailwind from “Definitely Tora”, and 1 individual stockI will pick it up.
Theme 1: ＜Defense＞
Is Japan's increase in defense spending a benefit to related stocks
Mr. Trump, who emphasizes the US first principle, insisted on reducing the US military burden to defend allies and increasing the burden on each ally since his time as former president, by hinting at withdrawal from NATO.
There is a high possibility that Japan will also ask for an increase in the burden of defense spendingIt is believed thatDemand will increase mainly from existing defense-related companiesThat is expected.
Is Japan's increase in defense spending a benefit to related stocks
Mr. Trump, who emphasizes the US first principle, insisted on reducing the US military burden to defend allies and increasing the burden on each ally since his time as former president, by hinting at withdrawal from NATO.
There is a high possibility that Japan will also ask for an increase in the burden of defense spendingIt is believed thatDemand will increase mainly from existing defense-related companiesThat is expected.
◆ $Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011.JP)$
No. 1 transaction value with the Defense Equipment Agency of the Ministry of DefenseIt is a reserved seat. The number of contracts for fiscal year 22 was 157, or 459.1 billion yen, accounting for 25.5% of the agency's total contract amount. The main items delivered are escort ships, submarines, next fighter jets, etc.
No. 1 transaction value with the Defense Equipment Agency of the Ministry of DefenseIt is a reserved seat. The number of contracts for fiscal year 22 was 157, or 459.1 billion yen, accounting for 25.5% of the agency's total contract amount. The main items delivered are escort ships, submarines, next fighter jets, etc.
◆ $Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012.JP)$
Keeps 2nd place almost every year in deals with the Defense Equipment Agency. The number of contracts for fiscal year 22 was 99, or 207.1 billion yen, accounting for 11.5% of the agency's total contract amount. The main items delivered are patrol aircraft, transport aircraft, etc.
Keeps 2nd place almost every year in deals with the Defense Equipment Agency. The number of contracts for fiscal year 22 was 99, or 207.1 billion yen, accounting for 11.5% of the agency's total contract amount. The main items delivered are patrol aircraft, transport aircraft, etc.
Theme 2: ＜Crypto Assets (Cryptocurrency) ＞
There is a possibility that prices will rise if the US government changes to “parent crypto assets”
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under the Biden administration often imposed restrictions on crypto assets (virtual currency). In response to this, Mr. Trump was at a fund-raising event,Says “I will become a cryptocurrency president”It is said that they did. Also,Senator J.D. Vance, who was nominated as a vice presidential candidate, is a “pro-crypto asset group”It is known as. In February, in addition to sending a letter to the chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission expressing concerns about lawsuits against crypto asset operators, it is said that he also holds a large amount of bitcoins himself.
If the US administration changes to a stance that promotes or affirms the expansion of crypto assets,Prices of crypto assets such as Bitcoin have risen, and related stocks will benefitThat is expected.
There is a possibility that prices will rise if the US government changes to “parent crypto assets”
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under the Biden administration often imposed restrictions on crypto assets (virtual currency). In response to this, Mr. Trump was at a fund-raising event,Says “I will become a cryptocurrency president”It is said that they did. Also,Senator J.D. Vance, who was nominated as a vice presidential candidate, is a “pro-crypto asset group”It is known as. In February, in addition to sending a letter to the chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission expressing concerns about lawsuits against crypto asset operators, it is said that he also holds a large amount of bitcoins himself.
If the US administration changes to a stance that promotes or affirms the expansion of crypto assets,Prices of crypto assets such as Bitcoin have risen, and related stocks will benefitThat is expected.
◆ $Monex Group (8698.JP)$
Of crypto assetsHas a top-class domestic exchange “coin check” under its umbrella. The acquisition of the Canadian crypto asset management company 3iQ Digital Holdings was announced in 23/12.
Of crypto assetsHas a top-class domestic exchange “coin check” under its umbrella. The acquisition of the Canadian crypto asset management company 3iQ Digital Holdings was announced in 23/12.
◆ $GMO Financial Holdings (7177.JP)$
GMO Coin, a subsidiary, is developing a crypto asset trading platform. It operates crypto asset sales offices and exchanges, and also provides leveraged transactions.
GMO Coin, a subsidiary, is developing a crypto asset trading platform. It operates crypto asset sales offices and exchanges, and also provides leveraged transactions.
Theme 3: ＜Non-electric Vehicles＞
Is it a tailwind for domestic companies due to the abolition of regulations to make EVs mandatory
In March, the Biden administration announced environmental regulations for automobiles to be applied from 2027 in order to encourage automobile manufacturers to convert to EVs (electric vehicles). In contrast to this, the Republican Party led by Mr. TrumpElimination of environmental regulationsIt has been listed, and Vance's vice presidential candidate is in '23Bill to abolish tax incentives for EVs submittedDoing it.
It seems to be a tailwind for Japanese automakers, whose EV shift has been delayed compared to US Tesla and the Chinese team, etc., but Mr. TrumpPreferential treatment for US car manufacturers only, and the possibility of promoting protection of the automobile industry within the USThere are also, soCompanies with production sites in the US are likely to be a tailwindI can say that.
Is it a tailwind for domestic companies due to the abolition of regulations to make EVs mandatory
In March, the Biden administration announced environmental regulations for automobiles to be applied from 2027 in order to encourage automobile manufacturers to convert to EVs (electric vehicles). In contrast to this, the Republican Party led by Mr. TrumpElimination of environmental regulationsIt has been listed, and Vance's vice presidential candidate is in '23Bill to abolish tax incentives for EVs submittedDoing it.
It seems to be a tailwind for Japanese automakers, whose EV shift has been delayed compared to US Tesla and the Chinese team, etc., but Mr. TrumpPreferential treatment for US car manufacturers only, and the possibility of promoting protection of the automobile industry within the USThere are also, soCompanies with production sites in the US are likely to be a tailwindI can say that.
◆ $Toyota Motor (7203.JP)$
Driven by hybrid cars, 10.3 million units were sold worldwide in fiscal 2023, of whichEVs are in the 0.117 million rangeIt has stayed atThe North American market is the company's largest market, selling over 2.8 million units, and within the US, they have factories in Kentucky, Indiana, Texas, etc.。
Driven by hybrid cars, 10.3 million units were sold worldwide in fiscal 2023, of whichEVs are in the 0.117 million rangeIt has stayed atThe North American market is the company's largest market, selling over 2.8 million units, and within the US, they have factories in Kentucky, Indiana, Texas, etc.。
◆ $Honda Motor (7267.JP)$
Of the 4.11 million units sold worldwide in 2023,The United States sold the most 1.36 million units。Within the US, they have factories in Ohio, South Carolina, etc.。Joint development of EVs was underway with US General Motors, but it was announced that they would be canceled in 23/10. On March '24Start considering a strategic partnership related to EVs with Nissan MotorI did it.
Of the 4.11 million units sold worldwide in 2023,The United States sold the most 1.36 million units。Within the US, they have factories in Ohio, South Carolina, etc.。Joint development of EVs was underway with US General Motors, but it was announced that they would be canceled in 23/10. On March '24Start considering a strategic partnership related to EVs with Nissan MotorI did it.
Theme 4: ＜Fossil Fuels＞
Is coal demand expected to increase due to decarbonization policies?
Trump became stricter under the Biden administrationRelaxation of the fossil fuel drilling permit processThey are appealing, and it is expected that it will be a tailwind for the petroleum and coal industry. The United States has a history of officially returning to the Paris Agreement, which is an international framework for greenhouse gas reduction that came into effect in 2016, after Mr. Trump, who was the president at the time, announced his withdrawal in 17 (official withdrawal was 2020/11), and President Biden officially returned to office in 21/2, as soon as he took office.
If Trump's decarbonization policy is promoted,It is also assumed that the decarbonization trend will be braked, and demand for coal prices will increaseIt will be done. There is a possibility that it will be a tailwind for companies that own coal mines overseas.
Is coal demand expected to increase due to decarbonization policies?
Trump became stricter under the Biden administrationRelaxation of the fossil fuel drilling permit processThey are appealing, and it is expected that it will be a tailwind for the petroleum and coal industry. The United States has a history of officially returning to the Paris Agreement, which is an international framework for greenhouse gas reduction that came into effect in 2016, after Mr. Trump, who was the president at the time, announced his withdrawal in 17 (official withdrawal was 2020/11), and President Biden officially returned to office in 21/2, as soon as he took office.
If Trump's decarbonization policy is promoted,It is also assumed that the decarbonization trend will be braked, and demand for coal prices will increaseIt will be done. There is a possibility that it will be a tailwind for companies that own coal mines overseas.
◆ $Mitsubishi (8058.JP)$
We own a coal mine in Australia through an investment company. Of fiscal year 23Net profit in the metal resources segment fell to 31% of total profit at 299.5 billion yen due to falling coking coal prices, but in fiscal year 22 it was 439.3 billion yen, accounting for 37%。
We own a coal mine in Australia through an investment company. Of fiscal year 23Net profit in the metal resources segment fell to 31% of total profit at 299.5 billion yen due to falling coking coal prices, but in fiscal year 22 it was 439.3 billion yen, accounting for 37%。
◆ $Sumiseki Holdings (1514.JP)$
Import and sale of coal. According to the financial results for the fiscal year ending 2024/3Dividend receipt income from the Australian coal mining company Wanbo in which it invests accounts for 36.2% of sales。
Furthermore, in May, Sumiseki HD announced that it will form a capital and business alliance with Aso (Iizuka-shi, Fukuoka-ken), which is the largest shareholder, and that it will become a subsidiary of the company. Aso is a major shareholder holding 4.98% by Liberal Democratic Party Vice President Taro Aso, who visited and met with Mr. Trump in April, and the younger brother of Vice President Aso is the chairman.
Import and sale of coal. According to the financial results for the fiscal year ending 2024/3Dividend receipt income from the Australian coal mining company Wanbo in which it invests accounts for 36.2% of sales。
Furthermore, in May, Sumiseki HD announced that it will form a capital and business alliance with Aso (Iizuka-shi, Fukuoka-ken), which is the largest shareholder, and that it will become a subsidiary of the company. Aso is a major shareholder holding 4.98% by Liberal Democratic Party Vice President Taro Aso, who visited and met with Mr. Trump in April, and the younger brother of Vice President Aso is the chairman.
Theme 5: ＜AI and Semiconductors＞
Will the abolition of AI regulations support the spread of AI
The Biden administration issued an “presidential order on the safe development and use of AI” in 2023/10. Guidance on authentication and source tracking of content created using AI, and plans for international involvement related to AI standards are also included, and it is characterized by seeking “responsible AI development” by companies from the viewpoint of safety, privacy, etc. Meanwhile, the Republican Party has announced the abolition of the presidential order, saying it “interferes with technological innovation and imposes radical left-wing ideology.” However, there is also a possibility that high-tech related sales to China will be restricted by Mr. Trump, who has maintained a strong line against China since the previous administration, and it is also expected that there will be a negative impact in the short term.
Nonetheless, if a Trump administration is born that is positive about the spread of AI, it seems that it will be a tailwind for AI/semiconductor-related matters in the long run.
Will the abolition of AI regulations support the spread of AI
The Biden administration issued an “presidential order on the safe development and use of AI” in 2023/10. Guidance on authentication and source tracking of content created using AI, and plans for international involvement related to AI standards are also included, and it is characterized by seeking “responsible AI development” by companies from the viewpoint of safety, privacy, etc. Meanwhile, the Republican Party has announced the abolition of the presidential order, saying it “interferes with technological innovation and imposes radical left-wing ideology.” However, there is also a possibility that high-tech related sales to China will be restricted by Mr. Trump, who has maintained a strong line against China since the previous administration, and it is also expected that there will be a negative impact in the short term.
Nonetheless, if a Trump administration is born that is positive about the spread of AI, it seems that it will be a tailwind for AI/semiconductor-related matters in the long run.
◆ $Disco (6146.JP)$
The world's leading cutting/grinding/polishing equipment for semiconductors and electronic components. It has the world's top market share for devices such as dicing saws that cut wafers in the back process, grinders that scrape the back side of wafers in the front process, and polishers that polish the back side. TSMC, Intel, Samsung Electronics, etc. have also become customers.
The world's leading cutting/grinding/polishing equipment for semiconductors and electronic components. It has the world's top market share for devices such as dicing saws that cut wafers in the back process, grinders that scrape the back side of wafers in the front process, and polishers that polish the back side. TSMC, Intel, Samsung Electronics, etc. have also become customers.
◆ $Advantest (6857.JP)$
The world's leading semiconductor inspection equipment company. It boasts the top market share in semiconductor testers, and two companies, Teradyne in the US, have an oligopoly on the semiconductor tester market. US NVIDIA, Samsung Electronics, etc. have also become customers, and sales to the Samsung Group accounted for 11.9% in fiscal year 23.
The world's leading semiconductor inspection equipment company. It boasts the top market share in semiconductor testers, and two companies, Teradyne in the US, have an oligopoly on the semiconductor tester market. US NVIDIA, Samsung Electronics, etc. have also become customers, and sales to the Samsung Group accounted for 11.9% in fiscal year 23.
Others: ＜Notable Individual Brands＞
The reason why there is a possibility that “reliable tiger” will be a tailwind for individual stocks $SoftBank Group (9984.JP)$that's it. Rice designs semiconductors under its umbrella $Arm Holdings (ARM.US)$Not only do you haveChairman Masayoshi Son's personal relationship with Mr. TrumpThere is also a possibility that it will have a positive effect on the company. Chairman Son met with Mr. Trump at Trump Tower in New York in 2016/12, before taking office the previous president, and promised an investment of 50 billion dollars and the creation of 0.05 million jobs for American start-ups.
The reason why there is a possibility that “reliable tiger” will be a tailwind for individual stocks $SoftBank Group (9984.JP)$that's it. Rice designs semiconductors under its umbrella $Arm Holdings (ARM.US)$Not only do you haveChairman Masayoshi Son's personal relationship with Mr. TrumpThere is also a possibility that it will have a positive effect on the company. Chairman Son met with Mr. Trump at Trump Tower in New York in 2016/12, before taking office the previous president, and promised an investment of 50 billion dollars and the creation of 0.05 million jobs for American start-ups.
On the other hand, $Nippon Steel (5401.JP)$It seems like it will be a headwind for them. The company invests approximately 2 trillion yen to proceed $United States Steel (X.US)$Regarding the takeover, Mr. Trump opposed the takeover, saying “it will be immediately blocked” in February 24, and the vice presidential candidate Vance also issued an objection statement as of 23/12. The company postponed the completion period of the acquisition from the end of September to the end of December in May, but attention is being paid to whether it will be realized under the “almost tiger” situation.
ー MooMoo News Mark
Source: Each company's website, EDINET, Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yomiuri Shimbun, Coin Post, Japan External Trade Organization, moomoo
Source: Each company's website, EDINET, Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yomiuri Shimbun, Coin Post, Japan External Trade Organization, moomoo
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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彦にゃん : You've noticed a good point.
ニックニク : Semiconductors, it's a super headwind
danji2 : Thank you for always being there.