TSMC is doing great with the AI boom! Check out the leading brands in Japan and the US from our major customers and suppliers!
$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US$ofStrong performancethat's it. Sales for June, which were announced on 7/10, increased by 32.9% compared to the same month last year, and hit a record high in the same month.In April-6, sales increased 40% from the same period last year, which greatly exceeded market expectations of 35.5% increase. What is the strong performance of TSMC, the world's largest foundry (semiconductor contract manufacturing) companyIt simply suggests that the AI investment boom continuesI'll do it.
Since TSMC's sales are announced prior to financial results announcements, the company's sales trends are leading performance indices not only for TSMC but also for related companies. From a supply chain perspective,There is a high possibility that a significant increase in sales that exceeds TSMC's expectations will indicate the following 2 points。
1) The business of major customers ordering from TSMC is strong
2) Not only TSMC but also its major suppliers are doing well
1) The business of major customers ordering from TSMC is strong
2) Not only TSMC but also its major suppliers are doing well
So this timeCheck leading brands in Japan and the US from TSMC's customers and suppliersI'll do it. While exchanging recent trends from each companyAlso confirm earnings forecasts and room for stock price increasesI'll do it. Note, currently, high-tech stocks such as TSMC are being pushed to profit margin sales. In addition to a sense of caution about high prices, rotation from high-tech stocks has had an impact. The US CPI decelerated more than expected, and since interest rate cut observations in September intensified, there was an active movement of high-tech stock sales+late stock purchases in the US stock market on 7/11. This rotation may continue for a while,Profit growth rate and magnitude of benefits from the AI boomBased onHigh-tech stocks are more likely to invest in the medium to long termIt's conceivable.
TSMC will be held on 7/10,June salesIt was announced that it had reached 207.9 billion Taiwan dollars (approximately 1 trillion18 billion yen). In the same monthThe highest level everIt became.April-June (Q2) sales increased 40% compared to the same period last yearAdd(※) andIt greatly exceeded market expectations of 35.5% increase. The 40% increase in sales is higher than the mid-20% range of full-year guidance shown by the company.Suggests that the benefits of the AI investment boom are greater than expectedI'll do it.
(*Financial results for the fiscal year ending April-6 are scheduled to be announced on 7/18)
TSMC's profit growth is also expected to accelerate, supported by a significant increase in salesthat's it. Earnings per share for the April-6 fiscal year are expected to increase 24.2% from the same period last year, and 27.2% for the July-9 fiscal year (Bloomberg tally).After that, price increases are also expected to lead to improved profit margins. According to media reports, customers are accepting price increases related to the cutting-edge technology 3nm process presented by the company. Based on this, TSMC is expected to conclude new medium- to long-term agreements with customers. The price increase shows TSMC's strengths in cutting-edge technology, and is expected to contribute to expanding the company's performance over the medium to long term.stock priceIs6% compared to the average target stock price, reflecting recent trendsThere is room for a 37% increase compared to the highest target stock price (*)has been suggested.
(*The highest target stock price is the highest target share price updated in the past month. (When analysts revise target stock prices, there is a relatively tendency to do so based on the latest company information.)
TSMC's main customers include Apple, NVIDIA, Taiwan's MediaTek, Broadcom, Qualcomm, AMD, etc. OfApple is the biggest customerSo,It accounts for approximately 25% of TSMC's sales。Next, NVIDIA is 10%、Broadcom, Qualcomm, and AMD each account for 6-7%. TSMC's strong sales are likely supported by these major customers.
Below, we will check the earnings forecasts and room for increase in stock prices for the 5 US listed companies that account for 5% or more of TSMC's sales.
◆Apple's growth rate is as low as 1 digit,Earnings are expected to recover from the bottom of the previous quarter。
◆The slowdown in iPhone sales and delays in AI strategies are also being corrected. It is reported that the company is targeting an increase of about 10% compared to the previous model for the next-generation smartphone “iPhone 16.” “It is said that the company is deepening its confidence that newly introduced AI services will stimulate demand for new models.” (Bloomberg Report)
◆stock priceIs it already due to the sudden backlash from June onwardsIt is above the average target stock price. Reflects recent trendsThere is room for 21% increase compared to the highest target stock pricehas been suggested.
◆The slowdown in iPhone sales and delays in AI strategies are also being corrected. It is reported that the company is targeting an increase of about 10% compared to the previous model for the next-generation smartphone “iPhone 16.” “It is said that the company is deepening its confidence that newly introduced AI services will stimulate demand for new models.” (Bloomberg Report)
◆stock priceIs it already due to the sudden backlash from June onwardsIt is above the average target stock price. Reflects recent trendsThere is room for 21% increase compared to the highest target stock pricehas been suggested.
◆On a quarterly basis, it is expected that it will slow down from ultra-rapid growth,The growth rate is still highIt is the leader among major tech stocks.
◆Announced results exceeding market expectations for the past 6 consecutive quartersThen, analysts followed suit and revised target stock prices upward. It is the next generation AI semiconductor H100 that is currently selling the mostDemand for both the H200 and Blackwell, the latest AI semiconductor, is strong. Of both productsContributions to business results will increase as shipments begin (second half of the year)It is expected.
◆Stock appreciation continued, and at one point it exceeded the average target stock price, but due to current stock price adjustments and target stock price increases by analysts,There is room for stock prices to risewas born.7% compared to the average target stock price, reflecting recent trendsThere is room for 57% increase compared to the highest target stock pricehas been suggested.
◆Announced results exceeding market expectations for the past 6 consecutive quartersThen, analysts followed suit and revised target stock prices upward. It is the next generation AI semiconductor H100 that is currently selling the mostDemand for both the H200 and Blackwell, the latest AI semiconductor, is strong. Of both productsContributions to business results will increase as shipments begin (second half of the year)It is expected.
◆Stock appreciation continued, and at one point it exceeded the average target stock price, but due to current stock price adjustments and target stock price increases by analysts,There is room for stock prices to risewas born.7% compared to the average target stock price, reflecting recent trendsThere is room for 57% increase compared to the highest target stock pricehas been suggested.
◆Sales are expected to continue to grow at a steady high rate。Earnings per shareAfter starting to increase in the current quarter,Growth is expected to accelerate。
◆Two major businesses benefiting from the AI boom,Semiconductors and cloud servicesI'm holding it. In addition to Apple, major customers are lined up with Alphabet and Meta, which is proceeding in-house development of custom semiconductors. It is NVIDIA's main customerThey are also making custom AI semiconductors for hyperscalers、Sales related to AI semiconductors have increased rapidly since last year. If sales of iPhones equipped with Apple's AI service are strong, it is likely that the conventional semiconductor business will also benefit.
◆stock priceis13% compared to the average target stock price、There is room for a 41% increase compared to the highest target stock pricehas been suggested.
◆Two major businesses benefiting from the AI boom,Semiconductors and cloud servicesI'm holding it. In addition to Apple, major customers are lined up with Alphabet and Meta, which is proceeding in-house development of custom semiconductors. It is NVIDIA's main customerThey are also making custom AI semiconductors for hyperscalers、Sales related to AI semiconductors have increased rapidly since last year. If sales of iPhones equipped with Apple's AI service are strong, it is likely that the conventional semiconductor business will also benefit.
◆stock priceis13% compared to the average target stock price、There is room for a 41% increase compared to the highest target stock pricehas been suggested.
◆Business performance is expected to expand steadily。
◆Smartphone manufacturers such as Apple and Samsung Electronics are the main customers.A strong policy to focus on generative AI was launched at the end of 2023、Announcing AI chips for smartphones and notebook PCsI did it. $Dell Technologies(DELL.US$The AI PC announced in May this year uses Qualcomm chips. In the future,Benefits can be expected from the spread of AI smartphones and AI computers。
◆stock priceis4% compared to the average target stock price、There is room for a 35% increase compared to the highest target stock pricehas been suggested.
◆Smartphone manufacturers such as Apple and Samsung Electronics are the main customers.A strong policy to focus on generative AI was launched at the end of 2023、Announcing AI chips for smartphones and notebook PCsI did it. $Dell Technologies(DELL.US$The AI PC announced in May this year uses Qualcomm chips. In the future,Benefits can be expected from the spread of AI smartphones and AI computers。
◆stock priceis4% compared to the average target stock price、There is room for a 35% increase compared to the highest target stock pricehas been suggested.
◆What are the achievementsThere is a slight blurring in the short termbutRecovery is expected in the medium to long term。
◆There is a strong image of NVIDIA 1 in the AI semiconductor field, and AMD is launching new products while following behind NVIDIA.Sales from AI semiconductors have already contributed to business resultsI'm doing it, butNot as good as NVIDIA. However, it is expected that the company will benefit from the expansion of the AI semiconductor market pie. There is a possibility that the spread of AI personal computers will also boost future performance.
◆stock priceis4% compared to the average target stock price, mostThere is room for 21% increase compared to high target stock priceshas been suggested.
◆There is a strong image of NVIDIA 1 in the AI semiconductor field, and AMD is launching new products while following behind NVIDIA.Sales from AI semiconductors have already contributed to business resultsI'm doing it, butNot as good as NVIDIA. However, it is expected that the company will benefit from the expansion of the AI semiconductor market pie. There is a possibility that the spread of AI personal computers will also boost future performance.
◆stock priceis4% compared to the average target stock price, mostThere is room for 21% increase compared to high target stock priceshas been suggested.
In addition to American companies such as ASML, Applied Materials, and Lamb Research, TSMC's main suppliers are also many Japanese companies such as Tokyo Electron, AGC, Shin-Etsu Chemical, and SCREEN. These companies can be broadly divided into 2 groups. One is a semiconductor manufacturing equipment company, and the other is a semiconductor materials company.
★ $ASML Holding(ASML.US$
TSMC's share of costsIf you look at it,ASML, a major advanced exposure company, is as high as 40%. This is because ASML has almost a monopoly on cutting-edge exposure measures, and the unit price per product is also high.From an ASML perspective, TSMC is the main customerSo, the sales structure ratio is also as high as about 30%. Therefore,The benefits of TSMC's business expansion are expected to be significant for ASML. In fact, after TSMC announced sales for June, analysts raised ASML's target share price.stock priceis9% compared to the average target stock price、There is room for a 22% increase compared to the highest target stock pricehas been suggested.
TSMC's share of costsIf you look at it,ASML, a major advanced exposure company, is as high as 40%. This is because ASML has almost a monopoly on cutting-edge exposure measures, and the unit price per product is also high.From an ASML perspective, TSMC is the main customerSo, the sales structure ratio is also as high as about 30%. Therefore,The benefits of TSMC's business expansion are expected to be significant for ASML. In fact, after TSMC announced sales for June, analysts raised ASML's target share price.stock priceis9% compared to the average target stock price、There is room for a 22% increase compared to the highest target stock pricehas been suggested.
Next, stocks with a relatively high sales ratio to TSMC are $Applied Materials(AMAT.US$Ya $Tokyo Electron(8035.JP$、 $Lam Research(LRCX.US$、 $KLA Corp(KLAC.US$、 $Screen Holdings(7735.JP$、 $Shin-Etsu Chemical(4063.JP$There are things like that.Not as much as ASML, but it seems that these companies will also benefit from TSMC's business expansion. For the above companies, it was decided to collectively confirm earnings forecasts and room for stock price increases.
US semiconductor manufacturing equipment manufacturerOKPerformance growth rateIf you look at it,Lam Research, KLA, and Applied Materials are expected to be in that order。Deviation rate from target stock priceOKLam Research and Applied MaterialsThen there is no big difference, and in terms of the divergence rate from the highest target stock price, bothRoom for an increase of over 20%has been suggested.Japan StocksisEarnings ForecastOKTokyo Electron and SCREEN are expected to be relatively strong。There is room for stock price growthOKBoth companies are betterU.S. semiconductor manufacturing equipment brandsIt has been suggested that it is larger。
Created 7/12/24 Market Analyst Amelia
Source: Created by Bloomberg by Moomoo Securities
Source: Created by Bloomberg by Moomoo Securities
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
