Two hurricanes and Boeing strike

October’s number will be depressed not just by the storms, but the Boeing strike. Economists expect the report will show the economy added 100,000 jobs.

Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller in a mid-October speech said he expected the hurricanes and Boeing strike to reduce employment growth by more than 100,000 jobs. Based on jobless claims, damage estimates and past hurricanes, economists at Goldman Sachs calculate the hurricanes alone will cut employment growth by 40,000 to 50,000 jobs. JPMorgan Chase estimates about 50,000, while Barclays has 50,000 to 60,000.

Wages could be distorted upward. That is because hourly workers are more likely to lose their paycheck when a storm hits than salaried workers who tend to earn more. That skews average pay higher.

Inflation, meanwhile, could be slightly warmer than otherwise as a result of shortages caused by the storms. In addition to halting production at some auto plants, the storms destroyed a lot of vehicles, with Moody’s estimating insured auto losses at $3 billion to $5 billion. Demand for replacement cars could arrest the downward drift in new and used vehicle prices over the past year. Car insurance rates in hurricane-hit states are also due to rise.

The Commerce Department’s retail sales report for October will be weighed down by hurricanes, which closed many stores and restaurants. Industrial production, construction and home sales activity will also likely take a dip.