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$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$ looks like 4....
$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$ looks like 4.80 is possible sometime maybe this week or next.
if it sells off like this you can expect the market to take a serious whacking, a 5% 10 yr yield would be a very very bad correction in the stock market. I suspect you're going to start hearing tomorrow about this approaching 4.80 and if it's 4.85 is a stone's throw away and people are non-stop going to start talking about a 10% correction in the stock market
so just keep an eye on this 10-year treasury if you don't follow it you really should start following it this is why the home builders all guided significantly lower because the 30-year mortgage is tied to this 10 your Treasury and right now a 30-year mortgage is probably around 7.1 -7.2
if the treasury would rally which is what everybody was expecting to happen then you would see this resurgence in home construction you would see people moving to buy bigger houses because they don't have a problem giving up a 3% mortgage if they can get a 5 and 1/2% mortgage and their dream home but they're not going to give up a 3% mortgage for seven and a half percent mortgage.
the other issue is everybody was really bullish on Bank stocks under Trump because significantly less regulation is expected.
however all that regulation in the world is not going to increase Bank profits because a big percentage of regional Bank profits are derived from refinances and home purchases and a 7 plus percent yield you can forget refinancing and your home purchases go down significantly.
additionally and I mentioned this before we heard this a year ago February was silicon valley Bank out in California that's when all of these problems developed and came to the surface and people started talking about the trillion dollars of commercial loans that have to be refinanced over the next two years well that's now and these properties have not been revalued on the bank books for years now about 4 years they're worth 50 to 80% less than what they once were when the loans were underwritten. and this is because covid took away the need for people to work in these offices so now they're vacant well the value of a commercial property is directly correlated to its occupancy rate and when you have buildings with floor after floor of vacancy their values go down dramatically. and this causes a severe problem with bank losses because the property owners can just Chuck the keys in the mailbox and walk away and then the banks have enormous losses on their books..
so those are the two primary issues right now that we're going to be faced with near-term so I would encourage you to keep a very close eye on this 10 year because you can mark my words they're going to start saying 4.80 and if it's 4.80 might as well be five and that's going to trigger a very very large Market sell-off
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JFL : The stock market will be collapse ?
10baggerbamm OP : just as a quick follow-up we've got unemployment coming out this week Wednesday and the next week cpi and ppi. if it hasn't registered with you yet the bulk of these numbers are manufactured they pretty much will come up with whatever number they want to. the proof of this is several months ago you had 815,000 jobs just miraculously vanish. they just restated them the following month so for an entire year the current administration was taking credit for jobs being created that never actually existed.
it wouldn't surprise me and it wouldn't put it past them to give a very bad economic number bad meaning bad for the Federal reserve that might indicate they're not even going to cut rates at all which will cause the treasury to sell off and approach 4.80 4.90 maybe five and I will trigger a very nasty sell-off in the stock market.
the current administration is doing everything in their power to fuck president Trump over. they say Biden is using a law that goes back several decades it's going to prevent Trump from drilling in the oceans in certain areas , biden's not doing it this is way above his pay grade. these are people that are orchestrating everything and anything possible to put roadblocks up . people that have sworn their allegiance working in very high offices, it's nothing for them to come up with the economic number that's completely manufactured because most of what's coming out of this administration is lies anyways so what would it matter to them if they sink the stock market..
Tiling : Will this affect Bitcoin?
10baggerbamm OP Tiling : when the market sells off it's going to take Bitcoin down with it absolutely