U.S. November CPI Accelerates to 2.7% YoY, MoM Growth at 0.3%, Hitting a 7-Month High

"New Fed Whisperer": CPI Indicates Strengthening Inflation, Challenges Loom for Trump and the Fed

November core CPI was flat compared to the prior month, up 3.3% YoY and 0.3% MoM. Housing costs cooled slightly. Following the report, swap markets raised December rate cut expectations from 86.1% to 96.4%, with markets still pricing in a January pause.

Timiraos highlighted inflation’s stagnation in November, suggesting the disinflation trend has reversed, posing key challenges for Trump and complicating the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory. Analysts noted that while CPI met expectations, it signaled stagnating disinflation. This won’t derail the year-end rally but raises doubts about next week’s cut and highlights potential inflation risks tied to Trump’s tariffs and fiscal expansion in 2024. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped initially but rebounded.