$Uber Technologies (UBER.US)$ Analyst comments: "We hosted t...
$Uber Technologies (UBER.US)$ Analyst comments: "We hosted two experts on autonomous vehicles to discuss tech, regulation, competition, and the path to scaled commercialization. Key takeaways include:
1. AV developers likely partner w/ UBER/LYFT: Experts believe AV developers are unlikely to manage robotaxi fleets long-term. Instead, three roles will emerge: software (Waymo, Mobileye), vehicle (OEMs), and network (Uber, Lyft). Scaled partnerships appear distant, but Uber’s diversified AV strategy reduces LT risks.
2. Operational costs could limit robotaxi price advantages: Robotaxi costs of ~$1.20 per mile (~$17 per trip) compare to rideshare costs of $15 per trip, limiting price undercuts.
3. Waymo, not Tesla, leads in AVs: Waymo benefits from advanced tech, GOOGL’s investment, and OEM partnerships. Tesla’s FSD is seen as lagging behind L4 competitors.
4. Trump administration could accelerate robotaxi regulations: Experts expect NHTSA rulemaking under Trump, easing patchwork regulations and accelerating AV deployment.
5. Robotaxis unlikely to scale before 2026: GM's Cruise shutdown highlights challenges. Uber will likely maintain partnerships with Waymo, Tesla, Mobileye, and others, supporting long-term growth."
1. AV developers likely partner w/ UBER/LYFT: Experts believe AV developers are unlikely to manage robotaxi fleets long-term. Instead, three roles will emerge: software (Waymo, Mobileye), vehicle (OEMs), and network (Uber, Lyft). Scaled partnerships appear distant, but Uber’s diversified AV strategy reduces LT risks.
2. Operational costs could limit robotaxi price advantages: Robotaxi costs of ~$1.20 per mile (~$17 per trip) compare to rideshare costs of $15 per trip, limiting price undercuts.
3. Waymo, not Tesla, leads in AVs: Waymo benefits from advanced tech, GOOGL’s investment, and OEM partnerships. Tesla’s FSD is seen as lagging behind L4 competitors.
4. Trump administration could accelerate robotaxi regulations: Experts expect NHTSA rulemaking under Trump, easing patchwork regulations and accelerating AV deployment.
5. Robotaxis unlikely to scale before 2026: GM's Cruise shutdown highlights challenges. Uber will likely maintain partnerships with Waymo, Tesla, Mobileye, and others, supporting long-term growth."
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