UBS's smartphone survey shows stable global 12-month purchase intentions at 39%, slightly down from 41% in 2Q23. The global replacement cycle is now 2.48 years, with a narrower cycle in China. The forecast for global smartphone shipments in 2023/2024 is revised to 1.15 billion and 1.19 billion units, indicating a 4% YoY decline and a 3% hike. UBS expects the recovery to extend beyond 2024, reaching 1.21 billion units in 2025.
UBS isoptimisticabout$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$,suggesting its technology differentiation will sustain premium penetration.XIAOMI's global market share is projected to rise to14%in 2025, with premium sales growing to15%. The broker anticipates XIAOMI to become the first brand with smartphones, home IoT, and smart EVs by 2Q24.
UBS raised its target price on XIAOMI from $16 to$18, maintaining aBuyrating.