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Universal Stainless – Do I regret not buying with prices going up 80%?
Universal Stainless and Alloy Products (USAP) is a US specialty alloy manufacturer. In Sept last year, my analysis showed that there was no margin of safety. As such I opined that it was not an investment opportunity.
However since then the market price had gone up by 80%. Do I regret not buying it?
I just updated my analysis of USAP and reached the same conclusion ie that it is still overpriced. My conclusion was based on USAP being a cyclical company and looking at it from a long-term buy-and-hold perspective. I focus on what drives the long-term business performance – profitability, growth and re-investments. As can be seen from the charts, they are cyclical with little uptrend.
Moral of the story? If you are looking to make money in the next few months, you need to look at a different set of fundamentals. These are indicators of short term performance. You probably also need to cover an analysis of the market sentiments.
I have no idea on how to do the short term analysis. That is why I focus on the long-term in my blog. I may have missed USAP and I do regret not buying. But I think that if you are investing for the long term, you have to trust the process. You may miss one or two such opportunities as USAP, but if you stick to the process, you will be a winner in the long run.
Am I wrong?
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Iwill TradeScared : I like company fundamentally but long term holding depends on capital employed and financial goals also there is no guarantee of success in any financial investment