NVDA
NVIDIA
-- 133.230 TSLA
Tesla
-- 403.310 DJT
Trump Media & Technology
-- 42.910 AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
-- 117.320 PLTR
Palantir
-- 64.980 Unpredictable US presidential election? USA stocks, more accurate than opinion polls. 100% win rate in election predictions!
This incident took place at a golf course in Florida on the 15th, and it is believed to be an attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate.This was the second attack on Mr. Trump in the past two months.。
According to Polymarket, at the time of reporting, the market predicts the winning rate to beMr. Harris 50%、Mr. Trump 48%are predicted.
As the US presidential election heats up, opinion polls have become important indicators for the media to determine the election results. However, according to US election analysts, if you want to know who will win the US presidential election, more direct and accurate judgment materials are needed than opinion polls.US stock market.It is pointed out.
According to Fortune, Nathaniel Rakich, the chief election analyst for FiveThirtyEight, stated in a 2023 survey that since 1998, the probability of accurately predicting the winner of US elections in opinion polls was only 78%.
On the other hand, in the prediction of US presidential elections since 1984,100% win rate.has been reached.
According to analysts, since 1984, when the S&P 500 index has risen between August and October, the ruling party always wins the election. Conversely, when the S&P 500 index falls during this period, the challenger wins. This indicator has been accurate in all 10 US elections since 1984.
John Lynch, Chief Investment Officer of LPL Financial, and veteran analyst Matthew Anderson stated that the performance of the stock market reflects a broader economic sentiment. If voters are satisfied with the direction of the economy, they tend to support the status quo, while if they are dissatisfied, they tend to seek change.
Analysts also point out that the strong performance of the stock market in the year before the election is closely related to the victory of the ruling party, but it does not necessarily guarantee victory. The S&P 500 index rose by 14.1% and 13.4% in 1976 and 1980, respectively, but inflation remained high and the ruling party was defeated in the election.
So analysts have identified another factor to pay attention to in addition to US stocks: the Misery Index.The Misery Index is an index devised by American economist Arthur Okun that measures the well-being of the nation. It is calculated by adding the unemployment rate and the rate of increase in the consumer price index. The higher the value, the more it indicates that consumers are struggling with rising prices and difficulty finding employment, and the greater the economic "pain".According to surveys, since 1980, the Misery Index has been similarly
Reed's Inc.broadcastingetc.
All of the abovePredicting elections with 100% accuracy.During the 8-10 months of each election year, the 3-month moving average of the misery index can accurately predict the election results.As long as the misery index rises, the ruling party will be defeated, and vice versa.。
Currently, the August misery index in the United States is 6.73%, significantly lower than the peak of 12.66% under the Biden administration in July 2022, but still higher than the 6.57% in June.
In other words, the unexpected increase in the July US unemployment rate could threaten Vice President Harris' chances of winning.
Analysts from Jeffrey, a major investment bank on Wall Street, analyzed the impact of the policies of either Trump or Harris winning the presidency on various industries and companies.
Trump policies and related stocks
President Trump is advocating for increased import tariffs and stricter immigration policies, as well as promoting early resolution of the Ukraine war, tax cuts, the use of traditional energy sources, and scientific and technological innovation.
President Trump is advocating for increased import tariffs and stricter immigration policies, as well as promoting early resolution of the Ukraine war, tax cuts, the use of traditional energy sources, and scientific and technological innovation.
Favorable stock： $AGCO Corp (AGCO.US)$、 $Deere (DE.US)$、 $United States Steel (X.US)$、 $ConocoPhillips (COP.US)$、 $Norfolk Southern (NSC.US)$、 $eBay (EBAY.US)$、 $Etsy Inc (ETSY.US)$、 $Microchip Technology (MCHP.US)$、 $ON Semiconductor (ON.US)$、 $Affirm Holdings (AFRM.US)$、 $Amgen (AMGN.US)$、 $British American Tobacco (BTI.US)$、 $Altria (MO.US)$、 $Discover Financial Services (DFS.US)$、 $Enova (ENVA.US)$、 $Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$、 $Morgan Stanley (MS.US)$、 $JPMorgan (JPM.US)$、 $Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX.US)$、 $Ford Motor (F.US)$、 $General Motors (GM.US)$、 $Merck & Co (MRK.US)$、 $Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN.US)$etc.
Stocks in a headwind： $Analog Devices (ADI.US)$、 $Albemarle (ALB.US)$、 $Progressive (PGR.US)$、 $TE Connectivity (TEL.US)$、 $HCA Healthcare (HCA.US)$、 $Barrick Gold (GOLD.US)$、 $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$、 $Meta Platforms (META.US)$etc.
Stocks in a headwind： $Analog Devices (ADI.US)$、 $Albemarle (ALB.US)$、 $Progressive (PGR.US)$、 $TE Connectivity (TEL.US)$、 $HCA Healthcare (HCA.US)$、 $Barrick Gold (GOLD.US)$、 $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$、 $Meta Platforms (META.US)$etc.
Harris policies and related stocks
On the other hand, Harris advocates for increased taxes on corporations, support for the new energy industry, cautious approach to the technology field, more proactive policies towards housing security, commitment to expanding government healthcare programs, and support for teacher salary increases.
On the other hand, Harris advocates for increased taxes on corporations, support for the new energy industry, cautious approach to the technology field, more proactive policies towards housing security, commitment to expanding government healthcare programs, and support for teacher salary increases.
Favorable stock： $Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA.US)$、 $CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)$、 $Palo Alto Networks (PANW.US)$、 $Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF.US)$、 $Nucor (NUE.US)$、 $Amphenol (APH.US)$、 $BHP Group Ltd (BHP.US)$、 $TE Connectivity (TEL.US)$、 $First Solar (FSLR.US)$etc.
Stocks in a headwind： $Costco (COST.US)$、 $Hershey (HSY.US)$、 $Kellanova (K.US)$、 $Procter & Gamble (PG.US)$、 $Target (TGT.US)$、 $Walmart (WMT.US)$、 $Adobe (ADBE.US)$、 $Discover Financial Services (DFS.US)$、 $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$、 $Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$、 $Cigna Group (CI.US)$、 $CVS Health (CVS.US)$、 $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$、 $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$etc.
Stocks in a headwind： $Costco (COST.US)$、 $Hershey (HSY.US)$、 $Kellanova (K.US)$、 $Procter & Gamble (PG.US)$、 $Target (TGT.US)$、 $Walmart (WMT.US)$、 $Adobe (ADBE.US)$、 $Discover Financial Services (DFS.US)$、 $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$、 $Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$、 $Cigna Group (CI.US)$、 $CVS Health (CVS.US)$、 $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$、 $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$etc.
This article uses automatic translation in part.
Source: DowJones, Jefferies, moomoo
ーMoomoo news Kouchi
Source: DowJones, Jefferies, moomoo
ーMoomoo news Kouchi
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
Discussing
Trump 2.0 countdown: What's the next big opportunity in the markets?
🎙️️ Discussion: 1. Could Trump's cryptocurrency policies potentially benefit the crypto market? 2. Might his tariff policies have a positiv
Michael McCarthy CCO
Jan 3 11:57
Ask a strategist - Trump's first day
なっとうきなーぜ : Hello, nice to meet you. I want to support Mr. Harris from America. I don't understand about the election, so I'm sorry for not knowing.
びふう : That means Mr. Harris has the upper hand, right?![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
The problem is after the presidential election is over
なっとうきなーぜ : Hello, I want to support Harris
ごとくん : I am in japan
, so I purchased a REAL Trump Coin for 100 dollars.