UPDATE, Nov 7
Another quick update.
there is nothing new to say.
I wouldn't want to own anything here. There is something bad brewing. you can't (shouldn't) keep a bad system afloat forever. The FED continues to supply money to the banks. Something is broken, or the fed wouldn't be simultaneously selling bonds while also purchasing them. They are also buying banks bad commercial loans (this is another bailout you're not being told about). There is so much bad underwater collateral in the system that they can't buy it all. (Well, they can, but eventually, the cat gets out of the bag). But that's all macro. Let's get into what's happening on the micro level.
We have had a good run-up. We should get a pullback. What happens on the pullback is the key 🔑
when the Nasdaq pulls back, that will be key. if it breaks and holds above 15400 before reaching the 14800 range, that would lead to more bullish for a while longer. I don't expect that, but it is possible. If you follow me, you know I expect something bad soon. This is just the FED delaying the inevitable. i think they are trying to float the markets into the new year for various reasons. i also think time is running out on them ⏳️
The bollingers are "pinching," meaning I expect a "big" move soon. Price is holding above the mid bollinger and the trendline. If it is to pullback, It would need to break below the mid bollinger first. if it holds that trendline and pushes above 372, then that could lead to more bullishness. I don't expect them to be able to push this into the new year, but it's possible. The upside is 373 for today and maybe the entire move? On the downside, the first support is 367. I would expect something closer to 363 for a healthier pullback whether you're bullish or bearish, that's just a healthier move.
J Powell speaks tomorrow and Thursday at the same time the bonds auction. I think there is something amidst the bonds. There are too many sellers, that's why the FED has been buying. they sell their balance sheet to reduce it (QT) but also have been buying the treasury departments new offerings (QE). The entire thing is smoke and mirrors to hide a complete collapse. (not even taking into account derivatives on those bonds). The entire market is walking on a knifes edge, one wrong thing, and it gets sliced.
I do not believe there will be safety except in t-bills 😎 although I think the possibility of a government shut down is real.
Energy got crushed yesterday. They all had good setups, and then suddenly, all got flat tires 😅 The move was odd. but it was not unexpected 😕 I expect a panic "sell everything" type of event. As I said, it could push into next year. That would be inflationary, but right now, I do not think they care.
Be Safe, Be Careful, Be Wise
and as always
Good Luck ![]()
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101633546 : The BB "pinching" meaning is it the upper band and lower band closing inwards ? and does this action always means big move either to up or down side? tq
razo2 : punishing the future generations for banks greed. war is always an excuse to print money.
iamiam OP 101633546 : yes, that is what I mean by pinching. and it usually means a big move. the size of the move usually depends on the length of the bollingers prior to the pinch. in other words the longer the time frame that it pinches on, the longer the move.
71640966 101633546 : YOU ARE WASTING YOUR TIME. SUCH A LOSING INDICATOR
iamiam OP 71640966 : it predicted this burst up. be silly elsewhere
Restitution Fund razo2 : Save my spy puts
Seraphicall Restitution Fund : Wait for friday
Croom : They won’t cause an unprecedented recession I don’t think. It’s either they keep inflation of the dollar or it’s that. They’re stuck and they have no choice but do either recession or inflation. Imo they won’t cause a recession, they will keep constantly inflating the dollar while selling their positions to make it seem like the market is holding levels. I don’t believe this will end with a limit down.