Ugly inflation is back. And markets are pulling back. But not all...
We are starting to see expectations for Fed rate cuts be kicked down the road
- Strong retail spending sales overnight saw the expectations for the Fed rate cut in March to be dropped to a 50% chance of a cut.
- Plus are seeing Fed speakers also say the Fed still needs to be cautionary
- I think that's because SOME inflation is creeping up – Plus we do have strong US eco news - Retails sales and Fed'beige book (another eco read) that showed the US consumer is strong, and business conditions strong too
- I think that's because SOME inflation is creeping up – Plus we do have strong US eco news - Retails sales and Fed'beige book (another eco read) that showed the US consumer is strong, and business conditions strong too
So now the first Fed cut could be May 84% chance a cut then. But more likely a Fed rate cut in June 102% chance of a cut then.
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Inflation metrics are creeping up again.This is NOT good news for mortgage holders, the stock market or 'Ciggie' smokers or big drinkers.
- Transpacific shipping rates are up 243% YoY.
- Plus there's 1% wartime insurance to pass through the Red Sea. These costs will pass onto the consumer...too bad if you smoke ciggies or are a big drinker, right?
– Don't forget Aussie Nov' CPI was hotter than expected. The biggest risers then?
- Insurance costs +8.8%, housing +6.6%, Alcohol & tobacco +6.4% YoY.
-But given the above, Australia will probably see inflation blow hotter. And expectations for RBA rate cuts will be kicked down the road.
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Suez canal diversions dush transpacific liner rates up 243% YoY.
THIS IS AN ISSUE AS 12% OF THE WORLD'S CARGO PASSES THROUGH THIS AREA
This is the Drewry Hong Kong-Los Angeles benchmark. Rates are being pushed higher by attacks from Yemeni rebels on vessels in the Red Sea. So many shipowners are taking longer voyages past the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the Suez Canal. That's adding 10-12 days. + Flow on effects (increasing oil demand) #inflation#shipping
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Oopsie Daisy...the Aussie jobs slowdown started a bit earlier than (consensus) expected.
- December Aussie employment FELL by 65.1k jobs. VS 15k jobs expected to be ADDED.
- WHY? "The fall...followed larger than usual employment growth in Oct' and Nov', with the employment-to-population ratio and participation rate both at record highs in Nov''."
- In November 72.6k jobs were ADDED
- The unemployment rate held steady at 3.9% as con' expected.
- AHEAD? 'rising underemployment rate and slowdown in the growth of employment and hours worked, suggest that the labour market is starting to slow'
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Why the Apple Watch News won't impact its financials and you should keep calm and carry on
I have been a huge fan of Apple $Apple (AAPL.US)$ $AAPLbut their Apple Watch health features are chalk and cheese to Garmin.
- I stopped using my Apple Watch as it kept dying intraday. It couldn't last half way through an endurance race I did.
-This is ONE of the reasons the fitness, health and well being community are NOT buying the Apple Watches (battery life). Nor the Series 9 and Ultra 2 smartwatches. They can't compete with Garmin (for many reasons).
-So, as 'Apple has to stop selling these watches with the blood oxygen feature in the US', I wanted to say from first hand experience, that this is NOT significant news.
-It's not material to their financials' in my opinion.
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I expect more profit taking / de-risking in markets
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Timber…..The Aussie share market is now down 3% YTD, erasing some of Nov & Dec's 12% gain
Timber…..The Aussie share market is now down 3% YTD, erasing some of Nov & Dec's 12% gain.
More 'profit' taking and de-risking ahead.
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The US share market (S&P500) is down 0.64% YTD after rising 13.34% in Nov & Dec
It's looking a bit toppy and could be due for some profit taking.
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