The US CPI to be announced tonight, with expectations of further acceleration due to high crude oil prices. Will the speculation of a rate hike in November increase?

The U.S. Department of Labor Statistics Bureau At 21:30 on Wednesday, September 13, 2023, Japan timeonUS Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Augustwill be announced.

The Federal Reserve Board (FRB) will be looking for signs of a slowing broad inflation trend even in August when energy prices surged. According to Bloomberg data, the CPI for August (year-on-year) is expected to rise from 3.2% in July to 3.6%. This increase is largely attributed to the global surge in energy prices. Gasoline prices rose by over 10% on a seasonally adjusted basis from July to August. It is highly likely that overall energy prices also saw a significant monthly increase not seen since mid-2022.

According to the PMI price index, stubborn inflation continues in August. US CPI, consistent with the trend indicated by the S&P Global USA PMI price index, is expected to remain around 3% for the next few months. However, if the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) exceeds expectations, there is a possibility of asset reassessment.

● Food inflation
The price rise of food has significantly slowed down. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index, fell again in August. While sugar prices continued to rise, prices of vegetable oils, grains, meat, and dairy products fell more sharply, becoming the main reasons for the decrease in the index.

● Used car prices
Manheim Used Car Price Index showed that in August, prices in major market segments continued to decline year-on-year on a seasonally adjusted basis, dropping by 7.7%. Compact cars saw the most decline compared to the same month last year, with a 13.3% decrease, followed by mid-size cars at 12.0% and luxury cars at 8.8%.According to , in August, the major market segments also saw a decrease in seasonally adjusted prices compared to the same month last year, with a decline of 7.7%. Compact cars were the most sluggish compared to the same month last year, with a 13.3% decline, followed by mid-size cars at 12.0% and luxury cars at 8.8%.

According to CarGurus data, the United States put an end to the rising trend of automobile prices after the second quarter of this year.

● Housing Inflation
Housing and rental fees, which account for the largest percentage in the service sector, declined on a monthly basis with further increases in vacancy rates. According to Apartment List, rental prices in the United States fell by 0.1% month-on-month and 1.2% year-on-year.

● Other notable data
The US Import Price Index is scheduled to be released this Friday. It is expected to rise initially due to the trend of shipping prices and then decline.

The University of Michigan is also set to announce the September one-year and five-year forecast inflation rates on Friday. In the previous month, the five-year forecast inflation rate remained at 3%, while the one-year forecast inflation rate increased to 3.5%.

● Next Move by the Federal Reserve
Recent data shows a weakening of the overheating in the labor market. Federal Reserve Board officials appear to generally agree to keep interest rates steady at the meeting from September 19 to 20. This will provide more time to assess the economic trends affected by the interest rate hikes.However, the more crucial discussion revolves around whether the Federal Reserve will proceed with an additional rate hike in November or December.。

Forecasts released after the conclusion of the September monetary policy meeting indicate that there is still a high possibility of an additional rate hike. However, whether the additional rate hike will be implemented remains uncertain.Among policymakers, there are concerns about the end of the tightening policy, as some fear that it may be revealed in the coming months that the tightening policy was inadequate.。

However, if it turns out that one more rate hike is unnecessary.Some officials are concerned that retracting the rate hike would cause more confusion and higher costs than hawkish colleagues had anticipated.

According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate hike in September is 7%, and the probability of a rate hike in November is 44.6%, as expected by the market.