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Will recession happen this year?
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US Business Activity in June Grow at Fastest Pace in 26 Months

U.S. business activity grew at the fastest pace in 26 months in June, data from S&P Global's provisional Purchasing Managers' Index survey showed. A gauge of selling prices fell amid slowing input cost growth, signaling inflationary pressures are easing, the report showed.

The S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7 in June, a second straight month of improving business conditions within the goods-producing sector, according to the report. A gauge of U.S. services advanced to 55.1, a 26-month high, data showed. Numbers above 50 signal expansion.

Meanwhile, U.S. leading economic index fell in May 0.5% in May, "driven primarily by a decline in new orders, weak consumer sentiment about future business conditions, and lower building permits,” Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager for business cycle indicators, at the Conference Board said in a report Friday.

While the index has been on a decline, it's not currently signaling a recession, Zabinska-La Monica said. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to slow to under 1% on an annualized basis over the second quarter and third quarter of 2024, as elevated inflation and high interest rates continue to weigh on consumer spending, she said.
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Moomoo Senior News and Community Manager
Former editor at Bloomberg, then Lazard Asset Management. Posts aren’t investment advice. Views are just mine.
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