US Consumer Trends: Stable but Not Strong, Resilience of Essential Consumption

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As the world's largest economy, the subtle changes in consumer behavior in the United States undoubtedly provide an important window into observing economic vitality. Recently, US consumer trends have shown a trend of being 'stable but not strong.' What economic logic lies behind this?

This can be seen from the descriptions of the Federal Reserve, official statistics, and high-frequency alternative data. Consumers are increasingly pursuing value for money, while companies are finding it more challenging to raise prices. Under this trend, household consumption has become more practical, although we have not yet seen significant cuts in household spending.

Especially in the discretionary consumption sector, the slowdown in growth is more pronounced. However, the market remains optimistic about the future performance growth of consumer companies, expecting steady growth in 2024 and 2025.

With inflation easing, household real purchasing power is expected to be supported, helping to maintain consumption growth. At the same time, a slowdown in the labor market may indicate that consumers will pay more attention to value for money, providing business opportunities for essential consumer companies.

However, risks always exist. The uncertainty of US economic growth, fluctuations in the labor market, changes in financial conditions, and the impact of political events may all affect the consumer market.

On the investment chessboard, changes in consumer trends are an important piece. Understanding these changes is not only to grasp the pulse of the economy but also to go further on the road of investment.