US core PCE falls

The United States announced at 21:30 on June 28, 2024core PCEThe result is 2.8% of the previous month2.6%It was.

Because falling prices will cause interest rate cutsStock heightIt's a factor.

It was announced at 22:45 on the same dayChicago Purchasing Department Business Index (PMI)The result is 35.4 of the previous month47.4It has skyrocketed.

Chicago Purchasing Department Business Index (PMI)is an economic index representing business confidence in the manufacturing industry not in the entire United States, but only in specific regions.

Chicago Purchasing Department Business Index (PMI)It had been declining for 6 consecutive months, but this time it has risen sharply.

What does the US market place importance on in manufacturingISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers IndexIt is.

Chicago Purchasing Department Business Index (PMI)It moves roughly (mostly) similar to ISM, but it doesn't mean that it moves linked to 100%.

If the manufacturing industry becomes boomingUS 10-year bond yieldSince it will rise, it will be easier for stocks as a whole to fall.

core PCEHas declinedStock heightHowever, when signs of strong performance begin to be seen in the manufacturing industry, it will put a brake on stock appreciation.

It was announced at 23:00 on the same dayUniversity of Michigan Consumer Confidence IndexThe results are compared to the previous bulletin value of 65.668.2It was.

There was a slight increase from the 65.6 announced in mid-June.

Lower than the previous month's confirmed value of 69.1, and the decline in consumption was a source of interest rate cutsStock heightIt's a factor.

The United StatesLeave ChinaAccelerateDomestic manufacturingThe trend of putting emphasis on is beginning.

This tooinflationaryThis is one factor that can prolong it.

Just because they moved away from China doesn't mean everything is made in the USMexicoIt is being strengthened as a manufacturing base.

Use MexicoMade in ChinaThere is also a movement to let it flow into the United States, so it cannot be said unequivocally that Mexico is safe.

Even if costs increase from this trendWithin the USThe trend of using the manufacturing industry is getting stronger.

Leaving ChinaThis geopolitical trend is increasing the risk that US inflation will be promoted.

Because if inflation remains high, interest rates will riseStock depreciationIt's a factor.

What I'm paying attention to recentlyUS Stock SettlementIt is.

Announced on 2024/6/27NKEWhat are the financial results of (Nike)

EPS:1.01(Forecast: 0.84 YoY: 0.66)

sales:$12.6 billion(Forecast: $12.8 billion, same period last year: $12.8 billion)

While profit margins are higher than expected, sales are falling.

NKENorth America's share of total sales is around 44%. More than half have increased sales overseas.

Announced on 2024/6/26MUWhat are the financial results of (Micron Energy)

EPS:0.62(Forecast: 0.48/YoY: -1.43)

sales:$68.1 billion(Forecast: $6.66 billion, same period last year: $3.67 billion)

MUNorth America's share of total sales is around 50%. Half of them have increased sales overseas.

AIRelated stocks have shown strong growth potential even in the face of high interest rates.

Optimism is dangerous because when stocks as a whole are bearish, financial results are ignored and well-performing stocks are also sold.

United States announced June 27, 2024Number of people who continue to receive unemployment insuranceResults against 1,821,000 people last time1,839 million peopleIt was.

It has been rising for 3 consecutive weeks.

ThisStock heightIt's a factor.

It's getting harder to find jobs in the US. Until nowThat was too goodIt's just that, it can be said that it is returning to normal.

Of 6/25FDXAs is the case with the financial results of (FedEx), it can be said that the US economy is strong even in the face of high interest rates.

housing marketSince shadows have begun to be visible,The peak of the market price is pretty closeI can say that.

Even when the real economy is strong, the stock market is always looking ahead, so be careful not to be fooled by the surrounding atmosphere.