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The US economy in 2024 is expected to be a year of moderate but healthy employment expansion - with the December employment statistics on December 10th.

The U.S. economy in 2024 is expected to be gradual but a year of healthy employment expansion - with December employment statistics released on the 10th.January 5, 2025 11:07 JST
An expected increase of 0.16 million employees in December, with an average monthly employment increase of approximately 0.18 million in 2024.
Average hourly wage growth is slowing slightly, with the labor market no longer being a factor in inflation.
According to the employment statistics for December announced on the 10th, it is expected to confirm that 2024 was a year of gradual yet healthy employment expansion. Economists expect this trend to continue in 2025.
According to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, the non-farm payroll employment in December is expected to increase by 0.16 million compared to the previous month. Taking into account this figure unaffected by hurricanes or strikes, the average monthly employment increase in 2024 will be close to 0.18 million. Although lower than the past three years, it still represents a strong labor market.
It is unlikely that the content of the December employment statistics, against the backdrop of a robust economy and a moderate inflation slowdown, will change the Federal Reserve officials' view that the pace of rate cuts can be slowed down.
On the 8th, the minutes of the December meeting of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) were released, revealing the extent of hesitation among officials regarding the 0.25-point rate cut decision. At the meeting, President Hamack of the Cleveland Fed had cast a dissenting vote.
In employment statistics, the unemployment rate is expected to remain flat at 4.2%. The growth of average hourly wages is slowing slightly, indicating that the labor market is no longer a major factor contributing to inflation.
The job openings for November, to be announced on the 7th, are expected to remain almost unchanged from the previous month. While the number of job openings is approximately 1 million more than at the end of 2019, the number of job openings per unemployed individual matches the pre-COVID-19 levels.
Multiple Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak later this week.
In Europe, inflation is a central theme. The inflation rate in the Eurozone for December last year, to be announced on the 7th, is expected to have slightly increased, with a high likelihood of exceeding the European Central Bank (ECB)'s target of 2%.
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