[U.S. Election] Trump's victory speech: We are creating a historic night (1).

Note: The content is mainly in Chinese, so there may be slight deviations in translation to English.

The U.S. presidential election is ongoing, with Republican candidate Trump sure to win. Fox News predicts he will win four swing states in a row, ensuring his election as the 47th President of the United States.

The atmosphere is high at the Lake Villa vote-counting banquet, with Trump, his family, deputy Pence, and staff taking the stage at the Palm Beach Convention Center, thanking supporters, "We are creating a historic night!"

Trump shouted from the stage, "I am your 47th President, along with the 45th President," promising voters "I will fight for you every day," "This will be America's golden age, we can make America great again," and thanked swing states North Carolina, Georgia, and Wisconsin, as well as family members, one by one.

In addition to Trump's family, mega billionaires like Musk and political allies like Kennedy and former Congressman Gaetz all came to show their support. When Fox News announced Trump's victory, the crowd chanted, "USA! USA! USA!"

In his victory speech, Trump also said to his supporters, "Many people tell me that God spared my life for a reason. It is to save our country, restore America's greatness. Now, we will together fulfill this mission."

'The task ahead of us is not easy, but I will dedicate every ounce of energy, spirit, and determination in my soul to the work you have entrusted to me.'

"Fox News" and "USA Today" report that in the 435-seat House of Representatives election, the Republicans have already won 220 seats, the Democrats 212 seats, exceeding the majority of 218 seats.

According to the Associated Press, earlier on, the Republicans had taken control of the U.S. Senate, reclaiming the Senate for the first time in 4 years. This gives the Republicans a major power center in Washington, allowing them to play a leading role in confirming the next president's cabinet, as well as any vacancies in the Supreme Court.

In this election, Trump won a big victory, with his leadership, the Republicans won the presidency, the Senate, and the House of Representatives, forming a complete ruling stance.

Trump's election victory is expected to have far-reaching impacts on various industries, with a potential improvement in the situation for fossil fuels and the traditional automotive industry, while the prospects for industries such as renewable energy, aviation, and retail are uncertain.

Bank of America securities analyst Murphy stated that Trump's election victory will almost certainly lead to the abolition of emission reduction policies and incentives for purchasing electric cars, slowing down the growth of electric car sales. Trump has also threatened to impose tariffs on goods from Mexico; many cars are assembled in Mexico before being sold to the US.

Trump's policies will benefit traditional car factories that produce vehicles such as General Motors and Ford. Wolfe Research analyst Rosner pointed out that Ford, in particular, is more exposed to risk from production in Mexico compared to General Motors and Stellantis. Tesla will benefit from the difficulty in selling Mexican-assembled cars in the US, as well as Musk's potential influence in the Trump administration.

Trump hopes the USA will conduct more oil drilling, which is beneficial to the oil industry. However, some analysts believe that Trump's plan to impose tariffs may have a net negative impact on American oil and gas developers. For example, during Trump's first term, he initiated a trade war, leading to retaliatory tariffs from China on American oil, resulting in a temporary decline in US oil exports to China.

Investors in fossil fuels should remain cautious because global oil production is currently excessive, demand is insufficient, while US oil production may continue to grow. Without geopolitical shocks, oil prices are expected to remain weak.

Trump has pledged to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) that provides subsidies to solar, wind, battery, and electric car companies, which is detrimental to the renewable energy industry.

In the event of Trump's victory, for insurance companies such as UnitedHealth and Humana offering Medicare Advantage plans, it may alleviate pressure and boost stock prices. For pharmaceutical companies, Trump's policies are more friendly towards mergers and acquisitions, paving the way to create large pharmaceutical companies. However, regardless of who takes office, it seems unlikely that the exorbitant prices of branded prescription drugs will change significantly.

The demand for artificial intelligence (ai) and aircraft is unlikely to decline by 2025, but Trump hopes to attract manufacturing back to the USA through increased tariffs. However, this could create some problems. Firstly, it might raise the cost of importing parts. Secondly, it could trigger retaliatory tariffs.

Taking Boeing as an example, the company's largest customer is China. If the United States imposes new tariffs on China, Boeing could become a target. Stoddard, an analyst at Vertical Research Partners, said one possible outcome is “China will no longer buy Boeing planes.” If the U.S. imposes tariffs on European manufacturers, it could also lead to retaliatory tariffs from European countries on Boeing.

Trump's policy stance supports deregulation, with the general belief that bank stocks will benefit. Since the Biden administration tightened merger reviews three years ago with new guidelines from the OCC, approved transactions have significantly extended approval times. Under Trump's leadership, the approval process could speed up as it may drive financial deregulation and relax transaction reviews.

The impact of Trump's election is mixed, with analysts divided. Morningstar analysts believe that smaller banks are concerned about regulatory fees, while Biden and other Democrats target bank fees, meaning regional banks may view the GOP as more favorable. However, Better Markets analyst Kelleher said, “Trump favors big banks, especially Wall Street's largest banks. Taking dangerous deregulation and other policies could lead to unfair competition for regional and community banks.”

After Lina Khan took office as Chair of the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC), she has focused most of her efforts on promoting competition in the tech industry. The Department of Justice has also targeted large tech companies, with a recent U.S. district court ruling Google's monopoly in the internet search market as illegal. For investors, regulatory issues are difficult to quantify but are likely to have a negative impact on stock prices.

Lina Khan was appointed by current U.S. President Biden and may not necessarily be reappointed after the election. Trump has previously stated that if elected, he would "drastically cut costly and burdensome regulations," but his campaign documents did not mention details of anti-trust policies in the tech industry.

In addition to anti-trust policies, in recent years, the semiconductor industry has also become a focus of attention in the United States. Strengthening America's chip manufacturing capabilities is a bipartisan consensus, and it is expected that after Trump takes office, he will continue to provide support in this area.

Trump is planning to impose tariffs, which may have a particularly large impact on retailers. In the past, retailers have successfully passed on the additional tariff burden to consumers through price increases, but this time it may be more difficult because after two years of high inflation, consumers will reduce spending on high-priced products. The National Retail Federation (NRF) released a report on the eve of election day stating that Trump's tariff proposal could reduce consumers' purchasing power by $46 billion to $78 billion annually after taking effect.

Jefferies' U.S. consumer strategist Kaufman also pointed out that certain retail stocks are already under pressure. In the past month, consumer goods companies with higher import rates (especially those imported from China) have underperformed in terms of stock performance.

After the U.S. presidential election, Trump has issued a statement of victory, stating that he will create the "golden age" of America. Some of his policies may bring both favorable and challenging outcomes for Tesla and its CEO Musk.

If Trump is elected, it may benefit Musk, but it could disrupt Tesla's stability. While Trump's policies may provide favorable conditions for some of Musk's plans, experts warn that this may also undermine Tesla's consumer base and market stability.

As a vocal supporter of Trump, Musk may benefit from some policies, but the broader electric vehicle (EV) industry may face challenges under Trump's leadership.

One major concern is that Trump may cancel federal EV subsidies and tax incentives. Trump has always supported the fossil fuel industry, criticizing green energy policies, which means that compared to the Biden administration, his policies may provide less support for the growth of electric vehicles.

Trump's polarized stance on green energy and climate change may bring more uncertainty, especially for Tesla investors. With the stock market reacting to political changes, Tesla's valuation may fluctuate dramatically, depending on investor sentiment and expectations for electric vehicle incentives.

Analysts advise investors to remain cautious, emphasizing that Trump's election may bring uncertainty to Tesla's future profitability, despite potential support for Musk's business plans.

However, if the federal government reduces support, Tesla's scale in the electric vehicle market may instead give it an advantage, especially when facing smaller American competitors.

According to Investing.com's report, Wedbush analysts believe that Tesla, with its market-leading position and strong production capacity, may be more capable than other companies in coping with an economy less friendly to electric cars.

Another aspect favorable to Tesla under the Trump administration is stricter trade policies, especially regarding tariffs on Chinese goods. Trump has previously imposed high tariffs on Chinese imports, and analysts predict that if re-elected, he may further strengthen these measures.

Chinese manufacturers like BYD and Nio, producing lower-priced electric vehicles, may find it more challenging to enter the U.S. market due to Trump's tariff policies.

This protectionist stance may help Tesla maintain stronger control in the U.S. market, avoiding a large influx of low-cost Chinese electric vehicles, thereby enhancing Tesla's sales opportunities domestically.

Trump announced his victory, and gold prices rebounded more than $25 in the European session.

In the early European market, spot gold reduced its intraday decline, with the current gold price trading near $2727 per ounce, rebounding more than $25 from the intraday low.

Looking back at the end of the Asian market on Wednesday, after the news of Trump winning the U.S. presidential election came out, gold prices once sharply dropped to $2701.27.

News of Trump's victory stimulated a sharp rise in the U.S. dollar, which also hit gold prices.

The US Dollar Index is currently around 105.10, with a significant 1.6% increase during the day.

Trump addressed his supporters in West Palm Beach, Florida, stating as soon as he took office that this would be America's golden age, making America great again.

Trump emphasized in the deafening cheers of his supporters: "We will help our country recover."

Gold has always been seen as a tool to hedge against economic and political uncertainty, and it thrives even more in a low interest rate environment. Gold has risen by nearly 33% so far this year.

With the former US President Trump securing victory in this presidential election, Taiwan Semiconductor, a factory in the United States, has attracted market attention.

Taiwanese officials believe that the development of Taiwan Semiconductor will not be affected. However, some experts warn that as a proponent of protectionism, Trump's favorable policies may change as a result.

According to the Times News, Taiwan's Minister of Economic Affairs, Guo Zhifeng, stated that regardless of who the next US president is, they should create the most favorable conditions for Taiwan Semiconductor.

He said, especially in advanced processes below 7 nanometers, Taiwan Semiconductor is almost like a lone warrior, combined with strong market demand. Therefore, no matter who takes the White House, they cannot restrict the development of Taiwan Semiconductor.

The Director of the National Development Council of Taiwan, Liu Jingqing, does not believe that Trump will target Taiwan Semiconductor. It would not only be difficult to implement but if the US imposes protection fees on Taiwan Semiconductor, the costs will be passed on to related products.

"By then, iPhones, AI servers will increase in price, which will instead harm Apple, Nvidia, AMD, and Intel."

ETtoday News Cloud reported citing Fu Wenfang, the managing partner of Ernst & Young, saying that in the long term, with Trump back in the White House, the US-China trade war is escalating again.

Under past protectionism, tariff preferences have been abolished. In the future, Taiwanese factories setting up in non-US regions need to pay attention to whether customs costs will increase.

Fu Wenfang also speculated that Taiwanese factories, including TSMC, after Trump took office, the unreceived incentives will not be given, and even if incentives are given, they will want them back.

With Trump back in the White House, the future interest rate path of the Federal Reserve may face changes.

According to the latest research report released by BofA Securities, the outcome of the US election may have a much greater impact on the future policy path of the Federal Reserve than the statements made by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the monetary policy press conference.

Analysts at BofA Securities pointed out in their report that although the market generally focuses on Powell's comments on economic outlook and monetary policy, the new president's adjustments to fiscal policy will directly affect the Fed's decisions.

Two analysts wrote in the report: 'In our view, the impact of the election on the Fed's policy path will be more profound than any remarks Chairman Powell may make at the press conference.'

The report further explains that if Trump takes office and implements fiscal expansion, the Fed may raise its neutral rate expectations.

'If the new president significantly increases tariffs, the Fed may pause rate cuts due to considerations of inflation and economic growth impact.'

The next Fed interest rate decision will be announced in the early hours of November 8 Malaysian time. The market unanimously expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%.

BofA Merrill Lynch pointed out that the soft October non-farm payroll report is enough to prompt the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in November, and cut rates by another 25 basis points in December.

The BofA Merrill Lynch report mentioned that despite Powell's possible emphasis on economic stability and the return to inflation targets at this meeting, the market should pay more attention to the election's impact on fiscal policy.

BofA Merrill Lynch believes that changes in fiscal policy will directly impact the Fed's monetary policy, especially in the current economic environment.

During the press conference following the meeting, Powell may be asked about election issues, but BofA Merrill Lynch expects him to emphasize the Fed's commitment to its responsibilities, react to upcoming data, rather than comment on the policy agenda of the next administration.

This indicates that although the election results have a significant impact on the Fed's policy, the Fed will still claim to maintain its independence and will not directly comment on the political agenda.

The report also mentioned the uncertainty of tariff policy and its impact on the Fed's policy.

BoA Merrill Lynch pointed out that the Fed's reaction to tariffs is difficult to determine, as they may overlook the impact of tariffs on inflation, view it as temporary price fluctuations, and focus on negative growth consequences.

However, considering the Fed's incorrect assessment of the impact of supply shocks in 2021, deeming it as "transitory" for inflation, when faced with significant tariff increases by the government, the Fed may be more cautious and consider pausing the rate cut cycle.

Coincidentally, JP Morgan also warned previously that if Trump wins on Wednesday, the Fed may pause the easing cycle as early as December, with the bank expecting a 25 basis point rate cut in November.

The US election has triggered intense global asset volatility, with Trump essentially securing victory, the associated trading fervor exploding, US stock futures widening gains, US bond yields rising strongly, and the US dollar reaching a one-year high.

S&P 500 index futures rose more than 2%, indicating that the index is likely to hit a new high again; the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds surged more than 10 basis points, with Bitcoin hitting a historical high.

These market trends reflect that the Republican Party is about to return to the White House soon, and investors expect Trump's second presidential term to be very similar to his first term: continuously introducing policies (tax cuts, deregulation, tariffs) to stimulate economic growth, corporate profits, and inflation.

Trump has declared victory while addressing his supporters; the latest voting results show that he has won Pennsylvania and Georgia, and the Republican Party has also gained control of the Senate.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index recorded its largest increase since 2020, the Mexican peso fell by 3.5% at one point, and the yen and euro both dropped by more than 1.5%.

E-mini Russell 2000 index futures rose more than 6% - given the protectionist stance of the Republican Party, small companies with typical domestic businesses are seen as potential winners in the event of a Republican victory.

The prospect of Trump's victory has heightened tensions in some Asian markets, with the offshore renminbi and Hong Kong stock market both falling together, as investors believe that trade tensions may escalate.

A group of investors on Wall Street are betting that Trump's stance on industrial policy, corporate tax cuts, and tariffs will boost the stock market and potentially drive up inflation - pushing up US bond yields and the US dollar.

Cryptocurrencies are seen as benefiting from regulatory relaxation and Trump's public support for digital currencies.

"The market seems to be entering Trump trades, with the rise of the US dollar and Bitcoin, as well as the pressure on the Japanese yen, euro, and Mexican peso, clearly reflecting this," said Chuanchanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo Markets.

The market now suggests that the Trump trade may have been digested, and concerns about congressional division will be the next focus.

The surge in US bond yields highlights external concerns that Trump's policies will further exacerbate America's bloated budget deficits and reignite worries about inflation. In Wall Street terms, this is bond guards' pressure on Washington leadership to control spending.

The euro leads the decline among G-10 currencies, with ING Bank stating that the market is concerned that Trump will expand the trade war, no longer just targeting China as in his first term.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index is on track for the largest drop since February 2023, with the Mexican peso leading. The strengthening of the US dollar also led to weakness in copper and most metals. Oil prices also deepened their decline.

However, European stock markets rose, with financial services and medical stocks leading the way, as traders bet on rate cuts by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.

●ING Economics: European politicians are increasingly concerned. Trump's trade agenda on fair competition will have a significant impact on the open economy of the European continent.

● Kiel Institute for the World Economy: Trump's economic policy measures, which may include protectionist tariffs and import restrictions, will further worsen economic growth in Germany and Europe.

● Deutsche Bank Research: European stock futures fell today, European bond futures are calmer than US bonds, if the trend continues in this direction, the likelihood of the European Central Bank being forced to act more swiftly will increase.

Trump's second victory in the US presidential election is expected to trigger 'US-China Trade War 2.0'. MIDF research suggests that this is good news for Malaysia, also known as 'Malaysia'. The country will benefit from the trade diversion trend and increased foreign direct investment (FDI).

MIDF analysts point out that after Trump's victory, a trade war 2.0 targeting China is expected. Based on historical records, Malaysia can profit from the intensifying trade war trend, including increases in foreign trade and investments.

"In terms of foreign trade, we expect Malaysia's export prospects to remain optimistic as trade diversion activities will encourage foreign businesses to use Malaysia more for re-exports."

The analyst stated that since the first trade war, Malaysia's re-export activities rebounded in 2019, expanding by 7.6% year-on-year. Before the global epidemic outbreak, the country's overall re-export proportion had risen to 18.6% in a period of 2 years, compared to only 13.3% in 2015.

The proportion of re-exports further increased to 22.1% in 2023, exceeding one-fifth of the country's total exports, indicating that this trend continues even after the outbreak of the epidemic.

The analyst also mentioned that Malaysia is expected to attract more foreign investment. Multinational corporations, based on the 'China+1' strategy, may consider our country as one of the destinations for business relocation, thus increasing local investments.

From 2016 to 2023, approved foreign investments in Malaysia soared from the previous 21.6 billion ringgit to 128.4 billion ringgit. The underlying reason behind this surge may be the trade friction between China and the United States. As the trade tensions between China and the US escalate, many companies are looking to diversify manufacturing bases to avoid tariffs and other trade barriers.

He added that Malaysia's strategic geographical location, coupled with government efforts to improve infrastructure and business environment, has made the country one of the destinations for attracting foreign businesses, including those from China.

Foreign investments from China and other countries continue to steadily increase. It is believed that this trend will persist and may even accelerate under the push of Trade War 2.0.

According to this analyst's observations, the five major sectors of Electronics and Electrical (E&E), Semiconductors, Green Technology, Machinery and Alloy Manufacturing, as well as Medical Devices, all attracted significant foreign investments during the previous China-US trade war.

Long-term predictions by analysts suggest that under tightening trade policies in the United States, it will further drive the integration of the 'Global South' - meaning the trade, investment, and financial flows of global developing countries.

"In other words, Malaysia's trade prospects will benefit from the strengthening demand of regional countries and other emerging economies worldwide."

MIDF research estimates that there will be short-term volatility in the market after the US presidential election, but compared to the election results, the subsequent Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions will have a greater impact.

Analysts at MIDF Research point out that the Democratic camp is likely to challenge the election outcomes after the election, so market volatility is expected to intensify in the short term, however, the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting is believed to have a greater impact on the market's future direction.

"With the latest employment data released, job growth in the United States has slowed down, so we believe that the Fed will cut interest rates to support the country's economic growth."

Nevertheless, the analyst also stated that the slowdown in US employment data is influenced by one-time factors such as hurricanes and strikes, therefore, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to significantly cut interest rates again.

"We predict that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the November meeting."

In anticipation of the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world continuing to cut interest rates, the analyst estimates that the global stock market outlook remains optimistic. The additional global liquidity will quickly flow to regions with attractive risk-return ratios, benefiting local and ASEAN markets.

"We expect that local and ASEAN stock markets will receive a certain share of the increasing global liquidity."

Currently, the analyst still maintains a year-end target for the composite index in 2024 at 1750 points, with a forecasted P/E ratio of 14.8 times for 2025.

In terms of investment strategy, the analyst continues to advise investors to carefully select stocks based on stock price volatility to reduce risk.

"Investors can choose stocks with low or moderate stock price volatility. Of course, when selecting stocks, it is also important to consider the fundamentals of the related stocks."

In addition, the analyst believes that after Trump wins the election, the production of oil in the usa will increase, causing oil prices to fall. However, the global market as a whole will still maintain balance, and the outlook for the oil and gas sector remains optimistic.

"Overall, we view positively the impact of the US election results on the global oil and gas market. However, we also remain cautious about individual downward risks in the oil and gas sector."

He added that in the case of oversupply due to increased production of crude oil in the usa, the price of Brent crude oil may decrease by $7 to $10 per barrel in the future.

Analysts maintain a 'positive' rating on oil and gas stocks, with their top pick being Dialog Group (7277, main board energy stock) in Malaysia, because the group is an integrated oil and gas player covering various sectors in the upstream, midstream, and downstream, which can reduce the impact of volatile oil and gas markets.

Furthermore, regarding the planting sector, analysts estimate that the boost from a new round of US-China trade war may be limited, as China has significantly reduced its imports of soybeans from the usa, diversifying its sources of soybean imports. Therefore, the demand for palm oil and other edible oils may not change significantly.

With Trump reclaiming the presidency, the expectation of a new round of US-China trade war is anticipated to boost exports of Malaysian electronic and electrical (E&E), semiconductors, and gloves.

Among them, Matahari Pacific rose 80 cents or 3.13% all day, closed at 26.36 ringgit, taking the lead, while former Yen Technology closed at 4.18 ringgit, up 11.77%, ranking third.

Although Zhenke only ranks 10th on the gainer list, the stock surged 26 cents or 37.68% all day, closing at 95 cents, with a high volume of 105,748,600 shares. In terms of percentage gain, it surpasses the Malaysian stocks.