The decrease in interest rates in the United States does not result in a stronger yen and a weaker dollar.
If the economy starts to decline, there is a possibility that the yen will strengthen, but I feel that the current dollar-yen exchange rate has already priced in the depth of such an economic downturn. Depending on the results of future economic indicators, if the US economy is judged to be strong, the Federal Reserve (FRB) will consider a slower pace of interest rate cuts than investors think in order to prevent reflation. Japan is also cautious about additional interest rate hikes and it seems unlikely that there will be any more rate increases this year. If that happens, the US could experience a prolonged period of high interest rates, making the dollar relatively stronger. It is also necessary to consider the possibility that the dollar-yen exchange rate will slowly move in the direction of a stronger dollar.![]()
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Riresa : Whether the dollar's position weakens or becomes stronger, I don't think the yen will appreciate unless there are fundamentals where the yen rapidly strengthens.
ジョモりん OP Riresa : Well, in addition to that, I would like you to consider my trend as a factor that supports the appreciation of the dollar![undefined [undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36)
![undefined [undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36)
The trend of the dollar index also affects stock prices, so I hope you can take a look at the direction of the dollar against world currencies
Riresa : That's right!
The dollar interest rate hike is 0.25, and the Bank of Japan interest rate hike is 0.25, so what exactly is going to change? I think, and with only this much reduction, I don't understand the reason for buying yen. Yen is being bought with great momentum in European time, but I don't think there is any reason other than resuming yen carry.
ジョモりん OP Riresa : I have the same idea at the moment, and depending on future economic data... there are places where... so the market price will always be like this! is dangerous, so I would like to think about it flexibly, and at the moment, I think that something due to a recession that has been too involved can also be cited as the cause of the depreciation of the dollar, so I have determined that it will be difficult to think about the further depreciation of the dollar from here on out![undefined [undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36)
Riresa : I'm also not optimistic about Japanese stocks. It turned out that Japanese stocks were the ones that played the most in the yen carry incident, and I feel that the Nikkei Average remained heavy thereafter.
After the yen balance was wiped out, only Japanese people supported Japanese stocks, and when it comes to whether Japanese people invest in stocks at the national level like Americans, of course, the answer is NO. There is currently no Japanese stock sector that surpasses or is comparable to the American sector, and it will continue to be difficult in the future.
ジョモりん OP Riresa : If you have your own outlook, it's important to first check if that outlook was correct, so let's keep a close eye on it![undefined [undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36)