US long-term interest rates have exceeded 4.5%! Higher interest rates curb the appreciation of US stocks
U.S. stocks were slightly higher on September 25th. The rate of increase was 0.1% for the NY Dow and 0.4% for the NASDAQ index.
Huge IT stocks and semiconductor-related stocks rose. Apple, Amazon, Tesla, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Nvidia have all risen in “7 representative stocks with the highest market capitalization in the US.” Semiconductor-related stocks such as AMD, TSMC, Intel, and ARM also rose.
In the Tokyo market yesterday, semiconductor-related stocks such as Lasertec and Advantest were the driving force, which boosted the Nikkei Average. The US stock market reflected the movement in Japanese stocks.
However, as indicated by the “0.4% increase” of the NASDAQ index, the rate of increase is moderate. There are currently no investors who would buy up the upper price of the main stock.
Bonds were sold, and US 10-year bond yields exceeded 4.5 percent. Rather than reflecting economic trends, it is thought that this was disgusting about political issues, such as delays in deliberating on the US budget bill. We must look directly at the 4.5% increase in long-term interest rates.
A rise in long-term interest rates will lead to a rise in mortgages. The stock price of LEN (LEN), a major US housing company, fell 0.3% on the 25th to 113 dollars. The 52-week high is $133.24 on July 24. Higher interest rates are holding back the price of US stocks.
On July 24, when Renner set a 52-week high, long-term interest rates were in the 3.7% range. Interest rates have risen by 0.8% P since then.
Higher mortgage interest rates will curb mortgage refinancing. If you buy a new house, you will have to make a new mortgage at a high interest rate, so the tendency for American citizens to continue living in current housing will intensify.
As the number of people who continue to live in old houses increases, the distribution inventory of housing decreases. Since there will be a shortage of properties, it will be necessary to supply new housing. so. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) says, “Let the government promote housing construction promotion measures through deregulation, etc.!” It's appealing.
From the viewpoint that housing construction will be promoted in order to resolve the housing shortage, US housing construction stocks have shown strong movements this year. However, for the past two months or so, Renner's stock price has not been able to beat the high price.
New housing is needed in the US, but there is a growing sense of caution in the market that demand for constructed housing itself will be limited with such high mortgages in the first place.
On the 19th of last week, when the housing market index was announced, NAHB made the following comments.
“Mortgage interest rates continued to exceed 7% last month. There is an increase in the number of traders that lower housing prices again in order to promote sales. The ratio of traders that lowered housing prices was 32% in September compared to 25% in August. This is the ratio since 35% in December 2022. The average discount rate is 6%”
I want a house, but since mortgages are expensive, it is difficult for American citizens to buy a house. Therefore, home builders are lowering sales prices, and such a situation comes to light.
Higher mortgage interest rates will curb mortgage refinancing. If you buy a new house, you will have to make a new mortgage at a high interest rate, so the tendency for American citizens to continue living in current housing will intensify.
As the number of people who continue to live in old houses increases, the distribution inventory of housing decreases. Since there will be a shortage of properties, it will be necessary to supply new housing. so. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) says, “Let the government promote housing construction promotion measures through deregulation, etc.!” It's appealing.
From the viewpoint that housing construction will be promoted in order to resolve the housing shortage, US housing construction stocks have shown strong movements this year. However, for the past two months or so, Renner's stock price has not been able to beat the high price.
New housing is needed in the US, but there is a growing sense of caution in the market that demand for constructed housing itself will be limited with such high mortgages in the first place.
On the 19th of last week, when the housing market index was announced, NAHB made the following comments.
“Mortgage interest rates continued to exceed 7% last month. There is an increase in the number of traders that lower housing prices again in order to promote sales. The ratio of traders that lowered housing prices was 32% in September compared to 25% in August. This is the ratio since 35% in December 2022. The average discount rate is 6%”
I want a house, but since mortgages are expensive, it is difficult for American citizens to buy a house. Therefore, home builders are lowering sales prices, and such a situation comes to light.
Radio NIKKEI commentator Kamata Shinichi
(C) Radio NIKKEI
The copyright of this material belongs to Radio NIKKEI
Please make investment decisions at your own risk
(C) Radio NIKKEI
The copyright of this material belongs to Radio NIKKEI
Please make investment decisions at your own risk
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