Outlook for the US market: BofA points out that now is a good time to buy Nvidia, and suggests that concerns about AI are unnecessary until 2026. Goldman Sachs also mentions that AI is not currently in a bubble.

The number of non-farm payrolls in the U.S. in August increased by 0.142 million, lower than expected. New York Fed President Williams said the interest rate cut has become "appropriate."
●The number of non-farm payrolls in the U.S. increased by 0.142 million in August, below the expected increase of 0.16 million and the previous increase of 0.089 million.
●The unemployment rate in the U.S. in August was 4.20%, the same as expected and lower than the previous rate of 4.30%. In July, the increase in the unemployment rate intensified concerns about economic deterioration and led to a sharp drop in stock prices, but in August, it decreased as expected to 4.2%.
●米ニューヨーク連銀のウィリアムズ総裁も6日、インフレ抑制における進展と労働市場の冷え込みを踏まえ、政策金利の引き下げが適切になったとの認識を示した。

市場がAIに懐疑的なのは理解できるが、2026年まで心配する必要はない＝ＢｏｆＡ
● $Bank of America (BAC.US)$のアナリスト、ヴィヴェク・アリヤ氏は9月4日付のレポートで、AIの設備投資と収益化に対する現在の市場の疑念は理解できるが、少なくとも2026年までは無駄だと述べた。
●バンク・オブ・アメリカはリサーチノートの中で、企業の設備投資は必要であり、AIの設備投資は新たなビジネスチャンスをもたらすだけでなく、検索やソーシャル関連企業の既存の堀や利益プールにとっても重要であると述べている。
●バンク・オブ・アメリカは、クラウド設備投資が2024年度には前年比45％増、2025年度には前年比14％増になると保守的に予測している。
●バンク・オブ・アメリカはまた、 $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$の株価が過去5年間で評価額の最低四分位範囲に下落した最近の引き下げにより、現在の疑問符と逆風の組み合わせが投資家にとって買いの機会を提供すると考えている。

According to the report, US high-tech stocks have a higher "concentration risk" than "valuation risk," so diversification is recommended by Goldman Sachs.
● $Goldman Sachs BDC (GSBD.US)$Analysts such as Peter Oppenheimer and Guillaume Jason stated in a research report released on September 5th that although the fundamentals of the technology industry are strong, there is a very high concentration risk, so they recommend exploring diversification. By reducing concentration risk, investors can not only enjoy the growth of the technology industry but also seize growth opportunities in other industries driven by AI technology.
According to the same report, since the end of the 2008 financial crisis, technology has been driving the returns of the global stock market to the greatest extent and its earnings have surpassed other major sectors such as media and telecom. The strong earnings growth justifies the outperformance of high-tech stocks relative to the overall market. According to the data in the report, the earnings per share (EPS) of the global technology sector has grown by about 400% since 2008, while the average growth rate of other sectors is only about 25%.
Goldman Sachs believes that artificial intelligence (AI) is not yet in a bubble. The report points out that the current valuation of the AI sector is significantly lower than the typical valuations seen in recent bubble periods such as the Nifty Fifty bubble period in the early 1970s, the Japanese bubble period in the late 1980s, and the high-tech bubble period in the 2000s. Furthermore, the current median price-to-earnings ratio (PER) and enterprise value (EV)/revenue of the MAG7 are only half of the top 7 companies in the dot-com bubble period in 2000, indicating that the companies currently dominating this sector are more profitable and have stronger balance sheets than the companies that dominated the sector during the dot-com bubble period.
Goldman Sachs' strategy team believes that the return on capital invested in AI is not a major concern. During the height of the high-tech bubble, TMT stocks were spending over 100% of their operating cash flow (CFO) on capital expenditures and research and development. On the other hand, today's TMT stocks have a ratio of only 72%. Goldman Sachs also argues that a significant increase in capital expenditure can actually generate strong returns. For example, when Microsoft made substantial capital investments to build Azure from 2013 to 2016, the gross profit margin of Azure temporarily turned negative but then turned into a substantial profit.
According to the data in the report, high-tech companies are not valued as highly as the leading companies during the bubble period, but they have the highest market share in decades and account for 27% of the total market capitalization of the S&P, demonstrating an unprecedented level of concentration.

Toyota to cut its global EV production plan by 30% for 2026.
According to market sources, Japan's electricity $Toyota Motor (TM.US)$automobile production plan for 2026 has been reduced by one third. Toyota had planned to produce 1.5 million EVs in 2026, but is now adjusting the production plan to 1 million units.
Toyota has ambitious annual production targets for EVs, but compared to the performance and market share in the hybrid segment, the EV business is still in its nascent stage. Toyota's EV sales last year were only 140,000 units, accounting for less than 1% of the total sales.
Earlier this week, the Swedish automaker Volvo abandoned its goal of going all-electric by 2030, stating that it expects to offer a wide range of hybrid models in its product lineup by that time. American automakers like Ford and General Motors have also delayed or cancelled the release of new electric vehicles due to lower than expected consumer demand.