US Market Outlook: Bullishness in US Stocks Supported by FRB Creates Risk of Bubble - Yardeni Dow Average Starts at $24 Higher

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There is a close difference between the hawk faction and the pigeon faction within the Fed, and the depreciation of the yen left and right
According to the FOMC participants' policy interest rate forecasts (dot chart) announced after the March FOMC, it has been confirmed that the number of interest rate cuts within the year is 2 people for zero times, 2 people for 1 time, and 5 people for 2 times, for a total of 9 people. There were 9 people in the 3rd faction, but since there was 1 person in the 4th faction, interest rate cuts were “maintained 3 times.” Since it is a racy close margin, if interest rate cuts begin in June, it is quite conceivable that this close margin will be reversed in the April-6 fiscal year. In particular, we still have to digest the three employment statistics and the rate of increase in consumer prices, and we cannot rule out the possibility that the expected number of interest rate cuts will change drastically due to an increase or decline in these important economic indicators. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is also between hawks and doves, and internal adjustments seem to take time and effort.
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Bullishness against US stocks supported by the FRB creates a risk of a bubble - Mr. Yardeni
The US FRB makes it difficult for investors other than being bullish on US stocks. This may not be a problem at all in the short term, but it creates a risk of a long-term bubble. Bubbles don't usually end well. What several guests of the Bloomberg Television program “Surveillance” compared to the mid-2000s last week suggested this. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research also expressed similar thoughts on the 25th and said that he remembered when traders sowed the seeds of the dot com bubble.

“UXL Foundation” to counter NVIDIA, software development plan
Competitor manufacturers $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$It has become almost impossible to counter it. The company has a unique programming code that has been used by engineers around the world for about 20 years, and this is because it has strengths similar to AI semiconductors. Currently, over 4 million developers of AI and various applications around the world rely on NVIDIA's software platform “CUDA.” However, major US semiconductor companies $Qualcomm (QCOM.US)$and Google, $Intel (INTC.US)$High-tech companies such as these established the “UXL Foundation” in September last year to break NVIDIA's control of the AI market. The plan focuses on “CUDA,” which binds developers around the world to NVIDIA semiconductors.

What triggered the Ministry of Justice to file a lawsuit for violating the antitrust law, with a succession of class action lawsuits against Apple
The US Department of Justice and 16 states/regions are in the US on the 21st $Apple (AAPL.US)$Class action lawsuits by consumers against the company have occurred one after another in the wake of filing a lawsuit for violating the Antitrust Act (Antimonopoly Act). Up to now, at least 3 class action lawsuits have been filed in the federal district courts of California and New Jersey.
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iPhone shipments in China fell by about 33% in February = US stock individual bulletin

Tesla and Mizuho cut investment decisions due to deceleration in EV demand
Mizuho revised the EV market growth rate forecast for 2024 downward from the conventional 25% to about 15%, assuming that demand for electric vehicles (EVs) is decelerating faster than previously thought. The company's analysts are major US EVs $Tesla (TSLA.US)$Regarding, it was stated that “it continues to be an unrivaled global leader in both scale and profitability, but deceleration in growth, competition with China, and inventory increases have become issues,” and investment decisions were lowered from “buy” to “neutral,” and target stock prices were lowered from 270 dollars to 195 dollars, respectively.

Tesla to offer driver assistance function “FSD” free of charge for 1 month to US customers
Major US electric car company $Tesla (TSLA.US)$The driver support function “full self-driving (FSD)” will be provided free of charge for 1 month to existing customers and new customers in the United States.

Bitcoin fluctuates more in the US time zone - structural changes with the introduction of physical ETFs
The crypto asset (virtual currency) Bitcoin also fluctuated drastically on the 25th, boosting the US market on the same day, which remained relatively sluggish. This time, it rapidly increased by 7% and recovered to the 70,000 dollar range, and signs were shown once again that Bitcoin fluctuations would become even more pronounced during the US time zone. This pattern was also seen when it recovered to 60,000 dollars for the first time since 2021 in February and when it hit a record high in March. Since the start of trading on January 11, net capital inflows into Bitcoin spot investment ETFs have risen to over 11 billion dollars, and the pivot of transactions has moved to the United States. The research company Kaiko pointed out in a report that the index that tracks the difference between the high price and low price of Bitcoin every hour shows that the difference is larger in the US time zone than in the Asian time zone.

US EV Lucid to raise 1 billion dollars from Saudi government funds
An emerging electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer in the US, $Lucid Group (LCID.US)$It was announced on the 25th that it will raise 1 billion dollars of funds from Ayar Third Investment Company (ATIC), an affiliated company of Saudi Arabia's government fund, Public Investment Fund (PIF).

Trump Media stock options are popular — put in preparation for a 95% sharp drop
While the stock price of the Special Acquisition Purpose Company (SPAC) Digital World Acquisition (DWAC) aiming to go public with the aim of going public of media companies led by former US President Trump is skyrocketing, put (right to sell) prepared for the same stock to lose almost all of its value within a few weeks is the most popular in the options market. As the merger procedure with Mr. Trump's social media company was completed on the 25th, DWAC changed the company name to “Trump Media and Technology Group.” Starting on the 26th” $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$It is traded with a” ticker.
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