๐ฅUS Market Outlook for November 4-8, New Era on 5th Nov?!๐
The market had a busy week with many top companies revealing their earnings, driving fluctuations in key indexes. Despite record highs earlier in the October, all major indexes ended October down:
โข $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ dropped 1.37%,
โข $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ slipped by 0.15%,
โข $NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ fell 1.5%.
Similarly, crude oil $Crude Oil Futures(JAN5) (CLmain.US)$ prices also dropped, down 5% this week after a brief jump due to Middle Eastern tensions. Iranโs muted response to strikes eased worries of supply issues, helping to calm energy markets.
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Recap of Economic Highlights
1.Tuesday: Consumer Confidence came in strong at 108.7 (above 99.5 expected), while job openings (JOLTS) fell below estimates.
2.Wednesday: The ADP Employment Report showed higher-than-expected growth, and the initial GDP estimate for Q3 came in at 2.8%, in line with last quarter.
3.Thursday: Core PCE inflation rose slightly but remains near the Fedโs target at 2.7%.
4.Friday: A surprising jobs report showed only 12,000 jobs added, far below expectations, due to one-time disruptions like strikes and hurricanes. Despite this, the unemployment rate held steady, and markets rose on optimism around slowing inflation.
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Key Stocks This Week
โข $NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ Tech Giants: The โMag Sevenโ tech giants had mixed earnings results, impacting $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ $Amazon (AMZN.US)$. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ slid alongside competitors due to rising costs in AI investments (ATH stands at $143). $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ capex in AI data centers contributed to a 5% drop mid-week. $Amazon (AMZN.US)$, however, surged 6% ๐ฅ after beating earnings expectations.
โข $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$: Bitcoin surged to nearly all-time highs but then dropped back to around $70,000.
โข $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ dropped 1.37%,
โข $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ slipped by 0.15%,
โข $NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ fell 1.5%.
Similarly, crude oil $Crude Oil Futures(JAN5) (CLmain.US)$ prices also dropped, down 5% this week after a brief jump due to Middle Eastern tensions. Iranโs muted response to strikes eased worries of supply issues, helping to calm energy markets.
1.Tuesday: Consumer Confidence came in strong at 108.7 (above 99.5 expected), while job openings (JOLTS) fell below estimates.
2.Wednesday: The ADP Employment Report showed higher-than-expected growth, and the initial GDP estimate for Q3 came in at 2.8%, in line with last quarter.
3.Thursday: Core PCE inflation rose slightly but remains near the Fedโs target at 2.7%.
4.Friday: A surprising jobs report showed only 12,000 jobs added, far below expectations, due to one-time disruptions like strikes and hurricanes. Despite this, the unemployment rate held steady, and markets rose on optimism around slowing inflation.
โข $NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ Tech Giants: The โMag Sevenโ tech giants had mixed earnings results, impacting $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ $Amazon (AMZN.US)$. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ slid alongside competitors due to rising costs in AI investments (ATH stands at $143). $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ capex in AI data centers contributed to a 5% drop mid-week. $Amazon (AMZN.US)$, however, surged 6% ๐ฅ after beating earnings expectations.
โข $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$: Bitcoin surged to nearly all-time highs but then dropped back to around $70,000.
โข $Apple (AAPL.US)$: Apple beat earnings expectations but warned of softer demand for the holidays, which curbed its gains.
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Election Insight
๐The U.S. election on November 5th is drawing significant attention, with a tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$. Despite the strongest economic indicators since the pandemic, voters remain split. Recent polling shows that 44% of Americans worry about a potential economic downturn. Both candidates aim to reshape the economy to address middle-class concerns:
โขTrump has proposed universal tariffs, tax cuts, and immigration measures that could impact trade and the economy. $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$
โขHarris plans to increase corporate taxes and limit price gouging, aiming to support families and control costs.
๐The U.S. election on November 5th is drawing significant attention, with a tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$. Despite the strongest economic indicators since the pandemic, voters remain split. Recent polling shows that 44% of Americans worry about a potential economic downturn. Both candidates aim to reshape the economy to address middle-class concerns:
โขTrump has proposed universal tariffs, tax cuts, and immigration measures that could impact trade and the economy. $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$
โขHarris plans to increase corporate taxes and limit price gouging, aiming to support families and control costs.
1.Election Outcome: With the election next week, volatility is likely $CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$ $ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY.US)$. A change in leadership could shift economic policies, impacting various sectors like tech $NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ ย and energy $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE.US)$.
2.Federal Reserve Meeting on November 6: Investors will be watching closely for the Fedโs next decision on interest rates, especially after a recent rate cut. Markets are hoping for another rate reduction, which could stimulate spending and investment.
3.Major Earnings Reports: Expect insights from high-profile companies, including $Berkshire Hathaway-A (BRK.A.US)$, $Palantir (PLTR.US)$, $CVS Health (CVS.US)$ . ย $Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$ results are likely anticipated and muted, following recent concerns around its financial practices.
โขPrepare for Volatility: Next week will be impacted by both the election and Fed decisions, potentially driving sharp moves in the market. Consider short term trade like $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (SQQQ.US)$ $ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 ETF (SPXU.US)$ $ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY.US)$
โขFocus on Stable Assets: Given the uncertain economic and political landscape, assets like dividend-paying stocks and defensive sectors like $Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU.US)$ $BGF World Healthscience Fund (LU0122379950.MF)$ may provide more stability.
โขWatch Tech Carefully: The โMag Sevenโ $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ $Apple (AAPL.US)$ $Netflix (NFLX.US)$ $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ $ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF (TQQQ.US)$ remain under pressure due to high AI investment costs. Opportunities in tech are still promising, but caution is advisable.
โขConsider Oil and Energy Stocks $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE.US)$ : Oil prices may rebound if supply issues arise in the Middle East, making energy stocks a possible hedge.
This week could set the stage for significant market moves, and investors should remain cautious and adaptable. Keep an eye on stable sectors and monitor the Fedโs and electionโs impact on your investments.
๐ฎ $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ ย and $NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ Prediction:
Based on the chart $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$,
This week could set the stage for significant market moves, and investors should remain cautious and adaptable. Keep an eye on stable sectors and monitor the Fedโs and electionโs impact on your investments.
๐ฎ $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ ย and $NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ Prediction:
Based on the chart $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$,
1. RSI (Relative Strength Index)
โขThe RSI line (14) is currently near the 50 level, indicating a neutral momentum. This suggests that the S&P 500 is neither overbought nor oversold.
โขHowever, it appears to have recently dipped from the overbought zone (above 70), which could signal that bullish momentum is weakening. If the RSI continues to fall below 50, it might indicate further bearish momentum in the coming days.
2. Fibonacci Levels
โขThe chart shows key Fibonacci retracement levels around 5675-5712. If the index breaks below the 5700 level, it might find support at 5675, based on Fibonacci retracement.
โขOn the other hand, if $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ gains bullish momentum, it could test the resistance around the 5800 level and potentially aim for the 5900 level.
โขThe current setup, with the RSI neutral and the price near a Fibonacci support level, suggests that the S&P 500 may attempt to consolidate around the 5700-5800 range unless a catalyst, such as next weekโs Federal Reserve meeting or election outcome, pushes it in either direction.
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If the index closes below 5700, it could signal further downside risk, targeting support at 5675 and possibly lower, around 5600. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$
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However, a bullish reaction to earnings or policy decisions could drive a rebound, challenging resistance at 5800 and potentially 5900 if momentum builds. $ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 ETF (SPXU.US)$
โขThe RSI line (14) is currently near the 50 level, indicating a neutral momentum. This suggests that the S&P 500 is neither overbought nor oversold.
โขHowever, it appears to have recently dipped from the overbought zone (above 70), which could signal that bullish momentum is weakening. If the RSI continues to fall below 50, it might indicate further bearish momentum in the coming days.
2. Fibonacci Levels
โขThe chart shows key Fibonacci retracement levels around 5675-5712. If the index breaks below the 5700 level, it might find support at 5675, based on Fibonacci retracement.
โขOn the other hand, if $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ gains bullish momentum, it could test the resistance around the 5800 level and potentially aim for the 5900 level.
โขThe current setup, with the RSI neutral and the price near a Fibonacci support level, suggests that the S&P 500 may attempt to consolidate around the 5700-5800 range unless a catalyst, such as next weekโs Federal Reserve meeting or election outcome, pushes it in either direction.
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