Outlook for the US market: Is a recession in sight? The fear index (VIX) rose more than 13% briefly! 'Mag 7', including Nvidia, also fell sharply, while US bond yields across various maturities sharply decreased, with USD/JPY falling below 148 yen.
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Here is the NY stock market outlook for tonight.![]()
Market Overview
The U.S. market started with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which consists of high-quality stocks, down 272.64 dollars to 40,075.33 dollars, and the Nasdaq Composite Index, which has a high proportion of technology stocks, down 413.70 points to 16,780.45. The S&P 500, which consists of 500 large-cap stocks in the U.S., was down 70.05 points to 5,376.63.
The U.S. market started with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which consists of high-quality stocks, down 272.64 dollars to 40,075.33 dollars, and the Nasdaq Composite Index, which has a high proportion of technology stocks, down 413.70 points to 16,780.45. The S&P 500, which consists of 500 large-cap stocks in the U.S., was down 70.05 points to 5,376.63.
Top news
U.S. Employment Statistics: The number of employed persons increased by 0.114 million in July, lower than market expectations. The unemployment rate also rose contrary to expectations.
● U.S. in JulyThe number of non-farm payroll employees increased by 0.114 million, below the expected increase of 0.175 million, compared to an increase of 0.179 million in the previous period.The previous period saw an increase of 179,000.
The unemployment rate in the US in July was 4.30%, with an estimate of 4.10% and the previous period at 4.10%.The unemployment rate unexpectedly increased.Excess heat has already subsided, and there are signs of cooling in employment. US bonds experienced a sharp decline in yields (bond prices surged) at various maturities and fell below 4% for the first time in about 1 year and 3 months. $U.S. 2-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US2Y.BD)$It fell below 4% for the first time in about 1 year and 3 months.
● U.S. in JulyThe number of non-farm payroll employees increased by 0.114 million, below the expected increase of 0.175 million, compared to an increase of 0.179 million in the previous period.The previous period saw an increase of 179,000.
The unemployment rate in the US in July was 4.30%, with an estimate of 4.10% and the previous period at 4.10%.The unemployment rate unexpectedly increased.Excess heat has already subsided, and there are signs of cooling in employment. US bonds experienced a sharp decline in yields (bond prices surged) at various maturities and fell below 4% for the first time in about 1 year and 3 months. $U.S. 2-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US2Y.BD)$It fell below 4% for the first time in about 1 year and 3 months.
Concerns about the high-tech sector
Another factor contributing to the low stock prices is the poor performance of major US high-tech companies.
● $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ $Intel (INTC.US)$In response to the sluggish sales report, traders are questioning whether the return from artificial intelligence justifies the cost.
● $Apple (AAPL.US)$It is predicted that the new features of artificial intelligence will accelerate the upgrade of iPhone in the next few months, but the poor performance in China was also pointed out. All three companies fell in pre-market trading.
Related articles:
Summary of earnings: Amazon fell in after-hours trading, with a "red signal" in profits due to expanding AI investments.
[Summary of earnings] Apple, although it has increased both revenue and profit, fell after-hours due to poor performance in China. What is the outlook for the future?
Intel fell 20% after-hours due to lower than expected revenue forecast. Dividend suspension and large-scale layoffs were also announced.
Another factor contributing to the low stock prices is the poor performance of major US high-tech companies.
● $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ $Intel (INTC.US)$In response to the sluggish sales report, traders are questioning whether the return from artificial intelligence justifies the cost.
● $Apple (AAPL.US)$It is predicted that the new features of artificial intelligence will accelerate the upgrade of iPhone in the next few months, but the poor performance in China was also pointed out. All three companies fell in pre-market trading.
Related articles:
Summary of earnings: Amazon fell in after-hours trading, with a "red signal" in profits due to expanding AI investments.
[Summary of earnings] Apple, although it has increased both revenue and profit, fell after-hours due to poor performance in China. What is the outlook for the future?
Intel fell 20% after-hours due to lower than expected revenue forecast. Dividend suspension and large-scale layoffs were also announced.
Questions about the Federal Reserve (FRB).
The current market crash reflects concerns that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are too long.
Traders currently expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25%bp (basis points) in September, November, and December. Market estimates suggest a probability of over 30% for one of these to be a 50bp cut.
Government bonds are benefiting greatly from this scenario, with a 7-day consecutive increase in prices on Friday.
The current market crash reflects concerns that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are too long.
Traders currently expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25%bp (basis points) in September, November, and December. Market estimates suggest a probability of over 30% for one of these to be a 50bp cut.
Government bonds are benefiting greatly from this scenario, with a 7-day consecutive increase in prices on Friday.
Japan's Turmoil
Japan has suffered greatly from market turmoil.
● $TOPIX (.TOPIX.JP)$Recording the largest decline since the 2011 tsunami over two days, reversing from the record high set in July.
This movement came after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly implemented a rate hike on Wednesday, following a hawkish message from Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. The rise in the dollar $Honda Motor (HMC.US)$Affected export companies containing も, with rising yields $Mitsui Fudosan (ADR) (MTSFY.US)$ Dragging the feet of real estate companies such as etc.
Related articles:【Tokyo Market Summary】Nikkei average down 2216 yen, the second largest drop in history hitting Japanese stocks with a triple shock
Japan has suffered greatly from market turmoil.
● $TOPIX (.TOPIX.JP)$Recording the largest decline since the 2011 tsunami over two days, reversing from the record high set in July.
This movement came after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly implemented a rate hike on Wednesday, following a hawkish message from Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. The rise in the dollar $Honda Motor (HMC.US)$Affected export companies containing も, with rising yields $Mitsui Fudosan (ADR) (MTSFY.US)$ Dragging the feet of real estate companies such as etc.
Related articles:【Tokyo Market Summary】Nikkei average down 2216 yen, the second largest drop in history hitting Japanese stocks with a triple shock
- moomoo News Zeber
Source: moomoo, Bloomberg, MINKABU
This article uses auto-translation in some parts.
Source: moomoo, Bloomberg, MINKABU
This article uses auto-translation in some parts.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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よろぴこ : Interest rate hikes were announced unexpectedly in July in a situation where there was almost no forward guidance after intervening and causing the yen to appreciate... then the president made hawkish remarks. Moreover, each company is in the financial period.
As a result, citizens who took NISA and turned their personal assets into investments were hit by a major crash after Black Monday and lost a lot.
The crimes of the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan that wreaked havoc on the economy are serious.
Even if the exchange rate appreciates the yen and becomes positive for prices, if this decline in stock prices is prolonged, personal assets will decrease. Decrease in consumption. Deterioration in corporate performance... As a result, the economy deteriorated.
These wrinkles also have an impact on wages and employment, and also lead to a recession. Looking back later, what was the policy for after all? Isn't it going to happen?
I can understand the importance of making the yen stronger, but the method of continuing to surprise is not good. That is one of the reasons leading to this situation.
てん ピノ : The couple bought shares of a semiconductor company for 4.7 million yen under the new NISA growth frame, and the evaluation gain at good times was about 1.5 million yen for the couple.
Currently, unrealized losses are 1.2 million yen, and it seems that it will drop again on Monday.
Are there people who are making a profit by purchasing securities under the new NISA?
I have determined profits from stocks purchased outside of the new NISA. It was my own mistake of judgment, but the new NISA was my revenge.
It all began with the intervention of buying yen about 1 month ago.
Are pensions, health insurance, etc. managed by Keidanren and stocks kept silent?
Prime Minister Kishida, who is waving the flag for the new NISA, will probably pass through without me knowing.
ゴーちゃん : Both the government and Ueda are drowning in plans.
The interest rate hikes they made for their country are strangling.
If you can make conclusions with data, AI is enough
I don't need Ueda or Powell.
But what kind of shock is this?
I don't think the company's performance is bad
Riresa : The opposite is true of the recession.
Real estate is in tatters.
182688103 てん ピノ : Bank of Japan Governor Ueda seems to have taken the Ministry of Finance's interest rate hike appeal.
てん ピノ Riresa : Since the rise in salaries could not keep up with the rise in prices, we chose the easiest method to suppress the rise in prices. If a company's performance falls, it is impossible to raise salaries.
If you count the average salary in the world from the bottom, it will be closer. The total income of 100 million will be low.
I can't travel abroad, and I have no choice but to watch people from overseas eating delicious food in Japan.
I've always thought that Abenomics was a mistake in the first place when Abe was prime minister.
If you keep it in a bank, it's still a big deal to get 4% to 5% interest without risk.
Japan must invest at risk.
The government is proceeding with the investment, and the Bank of Japan, which was working with Abe, creates an opportunity for things like this one.
It's a historic mistake.
Unfortunately, there are no people leading Japan, as there were from after the war until Showa 50 or so.
It has become a world where people think of politics as making money.
Democracy is collapsing.
Riresa てん ピノ : Abe and Kuroda spoiled large companies, and only the top companies that can join Keidanren have gained a lot of weight. Salaries rose so much during the bubble era, factory bases were established from Japan to overseas, and what's more, now that dispatch was widely permitted, about 30% of full-time employees at large companies are now.
zero interest rates. It's not that I love Japan. It's going to collapse due to real estate prices.
If interest rates are raised here, the people who are particularly dangerous are probably Japanese people who have been forced to buy real estate at prices that cannot be foreign prices in the past 4-5 years.
Pair loans, 50-year loans. I don't think that's insane. Foreign investors are just buying real estate aiming for Japan where the yen depreciates
アリエルマーリン てん ピノ : I have no choice but to put up with it and keep holding it. I experienced the bursting of the bubble, but it's worse than it was then.
人類 てん ピノ : 民の為強い円が欲しかつた！ダブルパンチ
GDP がマイナスなのに円高と利上げ政策
経済学にはそんなこと書いてなよなぁ
狼狽売りのヒロ : The Ministry of Finance is really bad, can't we do something about it? Economic tone-deafness