USA market outlook: Possibility of no rate cut in November? Dow Jones starts down 63 points.

Hello, Moomoo users!Here is the analysis of NY stock market tonight.

Market Overview
The U.S. market started, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which consists of high-quality stocks, opening at 42,289.51 dollars, down 63.24 dollars. The Nasdaq Composite Index, with a high proportion of technology stocks, started at 18,080.11, down 57.74 points. The S&P 500 Index, consisting of 500 U.S. large cap stocks, opened at 5,737.80, down 13.27 points.

Is there a possibility of postponing the interest rate cut in November?
Last Friday, the US Department of Labor announcedNon-farm payroll employment in SeptemberIs.Increase of 0.254 million people、Significantly surpassing the market estimate of a 0.147 million increase and marking the largest growth since March 2024.has become.
Currently, the yield on the 10-year US bond has risen by 4 basis points to 4.01%, reaching 4% for the year.
In the swap market, the likelihood of the November FRB holding off on rate cuts is 10.5%, with only a 25 basis points rate cut possible within the year being 10%.

Investors are waiting for statements from senior FRB officials this week.
Statements from senior FRB officials and event schedule
Monday, Bowman FRB director
Tuesday, President of the Atlanta Fed
Wednesday, President of the Atlanta Fed, President of the Dallas Fed, President of the Chicago Fed, Vice Chairman of the Jefferson FRB, Summary of the US FOMC meeting
Thursday, President of the NY Fed, Cook FRB director, President of the Richmond Fed
On Friday, Dallas Fed President Bowman, FRB Director.

Crude oil continues to rise.
● Brent crude remains bullish, temporarily rising by over 2%.
● Concerns over Middle East risks intensify.
● The call skew of the West Texas Intermediate futures for the 2nd month surged to the highest level since March 2022.

The future of US stocks
Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end target stock price for the S&P 500 index from 5600 points to 6000 points and decreased the next 12-month target stock price from 6000 points to 6300 points.
Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2025, the profit margins of US companies will increase, and macroeconomic prospects will remain stable.
On the other hand, according to the data compiled by InsiderSentiment, only 15.7% of executives or directors of US companies who conducted stock trades in July reported net purchases of their own company's stock, reaching a decade-low level.