NVDA
NVIDIA
-- 138.850 TSLA
Tesla
-- 355.840 BABA
Alibaba
-- 124.730 INTC
Intel
-- 23.600 PLTR
Palantir
-- 119.160 Outlook for the USA market: Market expectations for Q4 capital investment in AI may be too high = Morgan Stanley Dow Jones starts 103 points higher.
Hello, moomoo users! ![]()
Here is the NY stock market outlook for tonight.![]()
Market Overview
USA markets have started, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, consisting of quality stocks, up 103.15 points to 42,477.51. The Nasdaq Composite Index, with a high proportion of technology stocks, started at 18,512.58, up 97.09 points. The S&P 500, composed of 500 large-cap stocks, rose 16.89 points to 5,826.75.
USA markets have started, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, consisting of quality stocks, up 103.15 points to 42,477.51. The Nasdaq Composite Index, with a high proportion of technology stocks, started at 18,512.58, up 97.09 points. The S&P 500, composed of 500 large-cap stocks, rose 16.89 points to 5,826.75.
Top news
Bond yields surge, threatening the 6-week consecutive rise of the S&P500.
- The sharp rise in bond yields (price decline) could put an end to the 6-week consecutive rise of the S&P500 index. The rise in interest rates affects valuations, diminishes the attractiveness of stocks, as investors are discouraged from moving funds from money market funds.
Bond yields surge, threatening the 6-week consecutive rise of the S&P500.
- The sharp rise in bond yields (price decline) could put an end to the 6-week consecutive rise of the S&P500 index. The rise in interest rates affects valuations, diminishes the attractiveness of stocks, as investors are discouraged from moving funds from money market funds.
- The active bet on the Federal Reserve's rate cut is weakening as economic data remains strong, and the rate cut in 2024 is expected to remain at 40 basis points from the mid-September 80-basis point level. This change suggests that the $6.51 trillion in money market funds may remain in place rather than moving to stocks as previously expected.
Morgan Stanley is optimistic about AI, but notes that market expectations for Q4 capital expenditures may be too high.
- On October 23, Morgan Stanley analysts Charlie Chan, Daniel Yen, etc., released a report stating that while there is optimism about AI, the market's expectations for Q4 capital expenditures may be too high, potentially resulting in dissatisfactory outcomes. Cloud AI semiconductor customers are still in the process of production transitioning, with more purchases expected in the first half of 2025.
- In their report, Morgan Stanley pointed out that there have been some recent changes in the demand dynamics for CoWoS. Due to the unclear demand for the new AI chip MI325, AMD reduced its 2025 CoWoS wafer orders to TSMC, cutting down demand from 11% in 2024 to 13% in 2025. However, TSMC's order profile remains strong, with their production capacity expected to account for 63% share of the demand by 2025, immediately taken over by Nvidia.
- Overall, TSMC's CoWoS production capacity is expected to reach 3.7 million wafers in 2024, expanding to 7.18 million wafers in 2025. Significantly, TSMC mentioned in a recent earnings call that they are designing their own AI chips (ASIC) and have allocated 30% of their CoWoS capacity for ASIC.
- On October 23, Morgan Stanley analysts Charlie Chan, Daniel Yen, etc., released a report stating that while there is optimism about AI, the market's expectations for Q4 capital expenditures may be too high, potentially resulting in dissatisfactory outcomes. Cloud AI semiconductor customers are still in the process of production transitioning, with more purchases expected in the first half of 2025.
- In their report, Morgan Stanley pointed out that there have been some recent changes in the demand dynamics for CoWoS. Due to the unclear demand for the new AI chip MI325, AMD reduced its 2025 CoWoS wafer orders to TSMC, cutting down demand from 11% in 2024 to 13% in 2025. However, TSMC's order profile remains strong, with their production capacity expected to account for 63% share of the demand by 2025, immediately taken over by Nvidia.
- Overall, TSMC's CoWoS production capacity is expected to reach 3.7 million wafers in 2024, expanding to 7.18 million wafers in 2025. Significantly, TSMC mentioned in a recent earnings call that they are designing their own AI chips (ASIC) and have allocated 30% of their CoWoS capacity for ASIC.
Apple re-enters the top 5 in the china smartphone market.
●USA $Apple (AAPL.US)$ regains its position in the top 5 of the smart phone passengers carried rankings in China from July to September, despite a slight decline in passengers carried in the country.
●According to the preliminary figures released by the research firm IDC on the 25th, Apple's smart phone passengers carried in China decreased by 0.3% year-on-year in the July-September period. The market share decreased from 16.1% in the same period last year to 15.6%, but Apple secured the 2nd place in IDC's smart phone passengers carried rankings in China. It had dropped out of the top 5 in the April-June period.
●USA $Apple (AAPL.US)$ regains its position in the top 5 of the smart phone passengers carried rankings in China from July to September, despite a slight decline in passengers carried in the country.
●According to the preliminary figures released by the research firm IDC on the 25th, Apple's smart phone passengers carried in China decreased by 0.3% year-on-year in the July-September period. The market share decreased from 16.1% in the same period last year to 15.6%, but Apple secured the 2nd place in IDC's smart phone passengers carried rankings in China. It had dropped out of the top 5 in the April-June period.
Optimism about Apple's growth prospects may be too optimistic.
● $Apple (AAPL.US)$ KeyBanc Capital Markets is pouring cold water as Apple's third quarter earnings call approaches, pointing out the possibility that optimism about Apple's growth prospects is too optimistic.
●Analyst at the same securities firm, Brandon Nispel, believes that the market's expectation of a significant improvement in Apple's business is too positive, and the assumption that Apple will achieve its best growth in over three years and reach a turning point in its business is "unrealistic". Therefore, he downgraded Apple's rating to 'Hold'. This downgrade is the first time since KeyBanc started tracking Apple's progress three years ago.
●Apple is expected to announce its earnings on October 31, with expectations that iPhone passengers carried will turn from a decrease for two consecutive quarters to an increase. According to Counterpoint Research, iPhone 16s shows promising signs, with passenger carried in the first 3 weeks after its launch in China increasing by 20% compared to the 2023 model.
● $Apple (AAPL.US)$ KeyBanc Capital Markets is pouring cold water as Apple's third quarter earnings call approaches, pointing out the possibility that optimism about Apple's growth prospects is too optimistic.
●Analyst at the same securities firm, Brandon Nispel, believes that the market's expectation of a significant improvement in Apple's business is too positive, and the assumption that Apple will achieve its best growth in over three years and reach a turning point in its business is "unrealistic". Therefore, he downgraded Apple's rating to 'Hold'. This downgrade is the first time since KeyBanc started tracking Apple's progress three years ago.
●Apple is expected to announce its earnings on October 31, with expectations that iPhone passengers carried will turn from a decrease for two consecutive quarters to an increase. According to Counterpoint Research, iPhone 16s shows promising signs, with passenger carried in the first 3 weeks after its launch in China increasing by 20% compared to the 2023 model.
Stagnation in emerging market economies.
- The threat of a slowdown in the Chinese economy, weak performance, and the prolonged rise in global interest rates are hitting emerging market stocks directly.
- The MSCI index has declined almost every day this week, falling by about 5% since early October.
- The threat of a slowdown in the Chinese economy, weak performance, and the prolonged rise in global interest rates are hitting emerging market stocks directly.
- The MSCI index has declined almost every day this week, falling by about 5% since early October.
- moomoo News Zeber
Source: moomoo, Bloomberg, FedWatch
This article uses auto-translation in some parts.
Source: moomoo, Bloomberg, FedWatch
This article uses auto-translation in some parts.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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