Outlook for the US market: Mr. Sam pointed out that the Sam rule is no longer effective, and SMCI has dropped nearly 14% after the earnings announcement, while the Dow Jones started up 232 dollars.
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Tonight's analysis of NY stock market.![]()
Market Overview
The U.S. market started with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, composed of high-quality stocks, up 232.43 points to 39,230.09 dollars. The Nasdaq Composite Index, with a high tech stock ratio, started at 16,622.31, up 255.46 points. The S&P 500 average, composed of 500 large cap U.S. stocks, rose by 53.10 points to 5,293.13.
The U.S. market started with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, composed of high-quality stocks, up 232.43 points to 39,230.09 dollars. The Nasdaq Composite Index, with a high tech stock ratio, started at 16,622.31, up 255.46 points. The S&P 500 average, composed of 500 large cap U.S. stocks, rose by 53.10 points to 5,293.13.
Top News
Signs of recovery
The global stock markets have regained stability after the turmoil at the beginning of the week and continue to recover from Monday's crash.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose by 1.4%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures rebounded by over 1% on Tuesday, continuing to rise.
In addition, government bonds and other bonds in various countries declined.
The global stock markets have regained stability after the turmoil at the beginning of the week and continue to recover from Monday's crash.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose by 1.4%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures rebounded by over 1% on Tuesday, continuing to rise.
In addition, government bonds and other bonds in various countries declined.
Concerns still remain.
- Despite today's developments, Japan remains a major concern for many investors around the world.
- Due to last week's actions by the Bank of Japan, traders were forced to abandon their strategies based on the macro perspective that Japan's currency would continue to depreciate and interest rates would not rise sharply.
- The rapid appreciation of the yen also disrupted carry trades, which had been one of the most profitable market strategies this year, involving borrowing Japan's currency to invest in other assets worldwide.
Related articles:Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Naohiko Ueda: We will not raise interest rates when the market is unstable.
- Despite today's developments, Japan remains a major concern for many investors around the world.
- Due to last week's actions by the Bank of Japan, traders were forced to abandon their strategies based on the macro perspective that Japan's currency would continue to depreciate and interest rates would not rise sharply.
- The rapid appreciation of the yen also disrupted carry trades, which had been one of the most profitable market strategies this year, involving borrowing Japan's currency to invest in other assets worldwide.
Related articles:Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Naohiko Ueda: We will not raise interest rates when the market is unstable.
Sam Rule is no longer effective = Claudia Sahm
- On August 6th, Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist of New Century Advisors and author of the Sam Rule, appeared on a talk show to discuss the impact of the Sam Rule on the job market.
Claudia Sahm argues that the fact that this rule is not effective does not prove that the US economy is in recession, considering the changes in the US labor market today.
Sahm argues that the current rise in the unemployment rate is not due to a decline in labor demand in the market, but rather due to an increase in labor supply. For example, the increase in immigrants to the US after the outbreak of the epidemic has contributed to the recovery of the labor market and the rise in the unemployment rate, so it can no longer be used as an indicator of recession.
Related articles:Sam Rul's economic recession signal has been lit! What investment strategy should we focus on?
- On August 6th, Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist of New Century Advisors and author of the Sam Rule, appeared on a talk show to discuss the impact of the Sam Rule on the job market.
Claudia Sahm argues that the fact that this rule is not effective does not prove that the US economy is in recession, considering the changes in the US labor market today.
Sahm argues that the current rise in the unemployment rate is not due to a decline in labor demand in the market, but rather due to an increase in labor supply. For example, the increase in immigrants to the US after the outbreak of the epidemic has contributed to the recovery of the labor market and the rise in the unemployment rate, so it can no longer be used as an indicator of recession.
Related articles:Sam Rul's economic recession signal has been lit! What investment strategy should we focus on?
No signs of a hard landing or a significant interest rate cut in the US economy = Nouriel Roubini
Economist Nouriel Roubini believes that the market is overly pessimistic about the US economy heading for a hard landing and the Federal Reserve (FRB) significantly lowering interest rates.
There is some important evidence indicating that the economy is slowing down, but I do not think the data immediately suggests a hard landing. In fact, there are also strong factors in the economy.
Sahm's remarks were made during the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve (FRB) will cut interest rates by about 100 basis points by the end of the year.
The market is becoming nervous about the economic downturn, but the same person pointed out that similar judgments have been wrong in the past. "I think the stock market has predicted 10 out of the past 3 economic recessions. The market has often misunderstood the economic situation and the actions of the FRB," he said.
Economist Nouriel Roubini believes that the market is overly pessimistic about the US economy heading for a hard landing and the Federal Reserve (FRB) significantly lowering interest rates.
There is some important evidence indicating that the economy is slowing down, but I do not think the data immediately suggests a hard landing. In fact, there are also strong factors in the economy.
Sahm's remarks were made during the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve (FRB) will cut interest rates by about 100 basis points by the end of the year.
The market is becoming nervous about the economic downturn, but the same person pointed out that similar judgments have been wrong in the past. "I think the stock market has predicted 10 out of the past 3 economic recessions. The market has often misunderstood the economic situation and the actions of the FRB," he said.
20-year bond problem
Since the US Treasury reintroduced the 20-year bond through monthly auctions 4 years ago, in addition to the interest payments the government was supposed to make, an additional annual interest payment of approximately 2 billion dollars has been added due to the sale of 20-year bonds.
Bond market experts are undecided about how to handle this maturity, but Steven Mnuchin, who revived the 20-year bond in 2020, has stated that it is about time to abolish the 20-year bond.
Since the US Treasury reintroduced the 20-year bond through monthly auctions 4 years ago, in addition to the interest payments the government was supposed to make, an additional annual interest payment of approximately 2 billion dollars has been added due to the sale of 20-year bonds.
Bond market experts are undecided about how to handle this maturity, but Steven Mnuchin, who revived the 20-year bond in 2020, has stated that it is about time to abolish the 20-year bond.
Super Micro drops 13% after-hours on earnings=US individual stocks
Storage system $Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$ drops significantly after earnings. The per share earnings fell far below expectations, and the gross profit margin also fell below expectations, increasing uncertainty about profitability.
Related articles:Latest updates of ratings of major US companies as of 08/07 (Wed): SMCI, NVO, ABNB, UBER, etc.
Storage system $Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$ drops significantly after earnings. The per share earnings fell far below expectations, and the gross profit margin also fell below expectations, increasing uncertainty about profitability.
Related articles:Latest updates of ratings of major US companies as of 08/07 (Wed): SMCI, NVO, ABNB, UBER, etc.
- Moomoo news Zeber
Source: moomoo, Bloomberg, MINKABU, Dow Jones
This article uses auto-translation in part.
Source: moomoo, Bloomberg, MINKABU, Dow Jones
This article uses auto-translation in part.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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えいきちちゃん : I have no knowledge about the Therm Rule, but there is no guarantee that the current US will not go into recession. So I think it's necessary to be alert enough.
鳥貴族 : Sam has made this statement many times this year, and people who wanted to move the market along with some kind of rationalization disappeared and brought it up with excitement.