US market outlook: NVIDIA's 2025 results are expected to significantly exceed market expectations = GS NASDAQ Index starts 18 points higher
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This is the reading for tonight's NY stock.![]()
Market Overview
The US market started, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which consists of excellent stocks, rose 11.07 dollars to 40670.83 dollars, and the Nasdaq Composite Stock Price Index, which has a high high-tech stock ratio, rose 18.02 points to 17649.74. The S&P 500 average, which consists of stocks of 500 major US companies, is 2.98 points higher at 5557.23.
The US market started, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which consists of excellent stocks, rose 11.07 dollars to 40670.83 dollars, and the Nasdaq Composite Stock Price Index, which has a high high-tech stock ratio, rose 18.02 points to 17649.74. The S&P 500 average, which consists of stocks of 500 major US companies, is 2.98 points higher at 5557.23.
Top news
FRB in the spotlight
● This week's important event is likely to be Friday, when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to express new views on the direction of US monetary policy at the central bank's annual meeting to be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
● Wall Street is betting that Chairman Powell suggests interest rate cuts, but as discussions shift from “whether to cut interest rates or not” to “how much interest rate cuts will be made,” stock traders may feel unsatisfactory.
●Related articles:
Is the September rate cut real? What is the range of interest rate cuts? Global Markets Pay Attention to Chairman Powell's Remarks [Jackson Hole Preview]
Interest rates were cut in September due to deterioration in the US job market = Minneapolis Fed Governor
● This week's important event is likely to be Friday, when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to express new views on the direction of US monetary policy at the central bank's annual meeting to be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
● Wall Street is betting that Chairman Powell suggests interest rate cuts, but as discussions shift from “whether to cut interest rates or not” to “how much interest rate cuts will be made,” stock traders may feel unsatisfactory.
●Related articles:
Is the September rate cut real? What is the range of interest rate cuts? Global Markets Pay Attention to Chairman Powell's Remarks [Jackson Hole Preview]
Interest rates were cut in September due to deterioration in the US job market = Minneapolis Fed Governor
Buffett and Soros reduce their “M7” positions and increase their cash holdings
● Concerns about the US recession have receded according to the latest US inflation statistics, and investors are returning to the stock market. In recent weeks, the US stock market has risen, and stock prices that seemed to deepen their decline have returned. However, there are still signs of a more rapid decline.
● Warren Buffett's $Berkshire Hathaway-A (BRK.A.US)$It increased its cash balance to a record high of 189 billion dollars in the second quarter of this year. This appears to be a defensive move in preparation for a drastic recession in the stock market. Of course, it will also be an opportunity for Berkshire Hathaway to reinvest in the market at a more reasonable valuation level.
● Both Soros and Buffett are reducing their long-term stock positions to increase their cash holdings. However, Soros has gone one step further and is hedging by buying put options to protect his portfolio from falling. According to the 13F file newly published by Soros Fund Management, billionaire hedge fund managers have added existing hedge positions in the S&P 500. That portfolio includes: $Apple (AAPL.US)$ Put of, $Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf (HYG.US)$ Put of, $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ Puts are included, and the total amount of these is 0.5 billion dollars. Furthermore, Mr. Soros's fund $VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH.US)$ with $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ It holds a total of 0.1 billion 1 million put option positions.
● Concerns about the US recession have receded according to the latest US inflation statistics, and investors are returning to the stock market. In recent weeks, the US stock market has risen, and stock prices that seemed to deepen their decline have returned. However, there are still signs of a more rapid decline.
● Warren Buffett's $Berkshire Hathaway-A (BRK.A.US)$It increased its cash balance to a record high of 189 billion dollars in the second quarter of this year. This appears to be a defensive move in preparation for a drastic recession in the stock market. Of course, it will also be an opportunity for Berkshire Hathaway to reinvest in the market at a more reasonable valuation level.
● Both Soros and Buffett are reducing their long-term stock positions to increase their cash holdings. However, Soros has gone one step further and is hedging by buying put options to protect his portfolio from falling. According to the 13F file newly published by Soros Fund Management, billionaire hedge fund managers have added existing hedge positions in the S&P 500. That portfolio includes: $Apple (AAPL.US)$ Put of, $Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf (HYG.US)$ Put of, $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ Puts are included, and the total amount of these is 0.5 billion dollars. Furthermore, Mr. Soros's fund $VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH.US)$ with $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ It holds a total of 0.1 billion 1 million put option positions.
NVIDIA's 2025 results significantly exceed market expectations = Goldman Sachs
●Goldman Sachs $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$It is anticipated that ROI (return on investment) for each specific customer will be announced at the 2nd quarter conference call, and market confidence will increase.
● Goldman Sachs predicts that NVIDIA's second-quarter sales were 29.7 billion69 million dollars, and earnings per share reached 0.68 dollars, exceeding market expectations by 4.1% and 5.9%, respectively, and that earnings per share for 2025 will exceed market expectations by 11%.
● Goldman Sachs stated in its report that the reason NVIDIA's growth outlook continues to be bullish is mainly due to continued steady demand for AI infrastructure such as GPUs.
●Goldman Sachs $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$It is anticipated that ROI (return on investment) for each specific customer will be announced at the 2nd quarter conference call, and market confidence will increase.
● Goldman Sachs predicts that NVIDIA's second-quarter sales were 29.7 billion69 million dollars, and earnings per share reached 0.68 dollars, exceeding market expectations by 4.1% and 5.9%, respectively, and that earnings per share for 2025 will exceed market expectations by 11%.
● Goldman Sachs stated in its report that the reason NVIDIA's growth outlook continues to be bullish is mainly due to continued steady demand for AI infrastructure such as GPUs.
Economic outlook
● Over the weekend, Goldman quoted last week's retail sales and unemployment insurance claims data, and lowered the probability that the US will fall into recession over the next year from 25% to 20%.
● If the employment statistics for August to be announced on 9/6 “look good in their own way,” the company's economists see that there is room to lower the possibility of a recession to 15%.
● Over the weekend, Goldman quoted last week's retail sales and unemployment insurance claims data, and lowered the probability that the US will fall into recession over the next year from 25% to 20%.
● If the employment statistics for August to be announced on 9/6 “look good in their own way,” the company's economists see that there is room to lower the possibility of a recession to 15%.
High goals
● Meanwhile, Goldman says that considering the outlook for economic deceleration and depreciation of the dollar, sales of American companies predicted by analysts next year are too high.
● According to the bank, sales of the S&P 500 in 2025 are expected to increase 4%, slowing down from this year's 6% increase.
● This is compared to the average 5.8% increase in sales in 2025 predicted by analysts, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.
● Meanwhile, Goldman says that considering the outlook for economic deceleration and depreciation of the dollar, sales of American companies predicted by analysts next year are too high.
● According to the bank, sales of the S&P 500 in 2025 are expected to increase 4%, slowing down from this year's 6% increase.
● This is compared to the average 5.8% increase in sales in 2025 predicted by analysts, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.
— MooMoo News Zeber
Source: Moomoo, Bloomberg, CME FedWatch, Dow Jones
This article uses automatic translation for some of its parts
Source: Moomoo, Bloomberg, CME FedWatch, Dow Jones
This article uses automatic translation for some of its parts
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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Tokyo投資 : That was great. I'm looking forward to listening to NVIDIA's president at the 9/16 moomoo event~
鳥貴族 : We have prepared about 600 NVDUs with an average of 86 and are awaiting settlement. I want to EXIT at around 140
趣味 投資 : Expectations that exceed market expectations...
Don't raise expectations strangely
鳥貴族 趣味 投資 : If you look at GOOGL AMZN MSFT META's server investments, there seems to be a 20% increase
趣味 投資 鳥貴族 : You can expect that
重村 :![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")