US market outlook: Pay attention to statements from key figures such as Fed Director Waller, and the Dow Average starts at $78.76 higher

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Generated AI indicates that “cold water can be showered” next year
Analysts point out in the forecast report that generated AI “will be showered with cold water” next year due to rising costs related to technology. Generative AI is eventually overestimated, and since operation costs are too high, it is said that small-scale developers face difficulties.

Increased risk of 60/40 operations, heightened correlation between stocks and bonds - does it suggest a new era
The linked movements between the two assets seen in recent months have reinvigorated discussions on the hedging function of US bonds during a period when both stocks and bonds are easy to sell amid concerns about additional tightening due to the US Federal Reserve System. BI analysts said in the report, “The relationship between US stocks and bonds, which had been generally negative for decades, rapidly turned positive. If this becomes established, the risk of a standard portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds will increase, and it is suggested that there is a possibility that we will enter a new era with great significance.”

IMF revises US growth rate forecast for 23-24 upward
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised the US economic growth rate forecast for 2023 and 24 according to the latest global economic outlook announced on the 10th. Meanwhile, the outlook for the global economy remained largely unchanged. The US economic growth rate forecast was revised upward to 2.1% in '23 and 1.5% in '24, respectively.

Global economic risk is declining = Middle East collision, impact assessment is “premature” - IMF
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expressed a sense of caution on the 10th, saying that the future risk of the economy “is still downward.” Also, regarding the impact of the military clash between Israel and the Islamic organization Hamas, which effectively controls the Palestinian Autonomous Region of Gaza, it was clarified that the evaluation was “premature.”

200 banks in the world, if the economy is in recession due to interest rate hikes, there is a shortage of capital, IMF estimates
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the International Financial Stability Report (GFSR) on the 10th. We have compiled estimates that central bank interest rate hikes due to inflation continue, and if the economy falls into recession, it will lead to a crisis where approximately 200 financial institutions around the world will cut their regulated capital. While the IMF evaluates that “deposit outflows from the Bank of America have stabilized since the March turmoil, and stock prices have recovered slightly,” assuming that borrowing burdens on companies and individuals have increased, “financial stability risks remain elevated, similar to April.”

Losses including 3.4 trillion yen overpurchases of September foreign bonds, etc. at domestic banks, etc.
According to the status of external and internal securities sales agreements announced by the Ministry of Finance on the 10th, domestic investors overbought medium- to long-term bonds such as overseas government bonds by 3,396.3 billion yen in September. The overpurchase amount reached the level for the first time in about six months since March. While overseas interest rates such as the United States rose, banks and the like gathered to buy overseas bonds that had increased investment interest due to rising yields. Overseas interest rates are currently continuing to rise. There is a possibility that unrealized losses on overseas bonds held by domestic players are expanding.

Toyota and Honda increase sales in China for the first time in 4 months, new car sales in September
$Toyota Motor(7203.JP)$、 $Honda Motor(7267.JP)$、 $Nissan Motor(7201.JP)$The three Japanese companies announced the number of new car sales in China for September on the 10th. Toyota and Honda each increased for the first time in 4 months. The effect of strengthening sales promotion activities came out. Meanwhile, Nissan declined for 4 consecutive months due to intensifying price competition with other companies.

US Coherent confirms investment in silicon carbide business between Denso and Mitsubishi Electric
paddy $Coherent(COHR.US)$Is in the silicon carbide (SiC) business $Denso(6902.JP)$with $Mitsubishi Electric(6503.JP)$It was confirmed that they had agreed to invest a total of 1 billion dollars.
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Distribution source: Dow Jones, Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Jiji Press, MINKABU, Bloomberg