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Outlook for the US market: The year-end forecast for S&P500, expecting 7000 for Deutsche Bank, and the Dow Jones started with a loss of 121 dollars.

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moomooニュース米国株 wrote a column · Nov 26, 2024 22:32
Outlook for the US market: The year-end forecast for S&P500, expecting 7000 for Deutsche Bank, and the Dow Jones started with a loss of 121 dollars.
Good evening, Moomoo users!Tonight's analysis of NY stocks.
Market Overview
The U.S. market started, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, composed of high-quality stocks, opening at $44,614.89, down 121.68 points. The Nasdaq Composite Index, with a high percentage of tech stocks, started 54.24 points higher at 19,109.08. The S&P 500, composed of 500 large-cap stocks in the U.S., opened 12.66 points higher at 6000.03.
Outlook for the US market: The year-end forecast for S&P500, expecting 7000 for Deutsche Bank, and the Dow Jones started with a loss of 121 dollars.
Top News
Outlook for tonight
● President-elect Donald Trump for the first time announced specific trade restrictions. He stated that additional tariffs of 10% on imports from China and 25% on products from Mexico and Canada will be imposed.
● European and Asian stock markets declined. Concerns that Trump's policies will impact U.S. export companies are reflected. The Mexican Peso and Canadian Dollar depreciated. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures and the U.S. bond market remained stable.
● Binkim Chada of Deutsche Bank predicts that the S&P 500 will reach 7,000 points by the end of 2025. He presents the most optimistic view among Wall Street strategists.
● Interest in Qualcomm's acquisition of Intel is waning, and a potential deal that could have been the largest ever in the tech industry is now at a standstill.
Regulators have sued Ken Li, a former co-CIO at Western Asset Management and star bond trader, for a habit of allocating winning trades to high-profit accounts.
Trump's tariffs, impact of Bessant's optimism.
The initial market optimism when Trump nominated Scott Bessant as Treasury Secretary quickly cooled as Trump reiterated the importance of tariffs aimed at curbing immigration and illegal drug inflows, leading to significant drops in the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso.
Traders' expectations of Bessant mitigating fiscal risks may have been overestimated considering Trump's potential influence on US fiscal policy.
Analysts, including Shoki Omori of Mizuho Securities, warn of increased volatility in global assets over the next few years. Andrew Slimmon of Morgan Stanley points out the market tendency to retreat when the new administration's 'honeymoon period' ends.
Amid ongoing market debates, uncertainty grows about the future policies of the Federal Reserve Board.
Among Citigroup's strategists, opinions diverge on the Fed's next move. Interest rate strategists support keeping rates steady, while economists predict a 0.5 point rate cut in December.
The strength of the labor market is considered a factor leading to divergence in market participants' opinions.
The minutes of the FRB scheduled for release today may provide clues about officials' intentions regarding future interest rate cuts.
Data point: 2024.11.26
Data point: 2024.11.26
Analysts warn of potential risks in the foreign exchange market due to threats of Trump tariffs.
President Trump has pledged to raise tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, which analysts point out could signal the beginning of significant upheaval in the foreign exchange market. Goldman Sachs strategists warn of the high risk of underestimating the impact of tariff policies on exchange rates.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank further caution that if the market reaction to tariffs remains calm, there is a possibility that Trump may expand the scope of tariff measures.
ING estimates that following tariff increases, U.S. consumers could potentially suffer annual losses of up to $2400, while also anticipating increased inflation pressures.
On the other hand, S&P Global Ratings predicts that the impact of tariffs on the Eurozone is manageable, with only a slight 0.2% decrease in Eurozone economic growth expected.
European auto manufacturers' stock prices are falling due to concerns about trade wars. Analysts at AJ Bell note that Trump's tariff pledge is evolving from a threat to reality.
Related articles:Trade wars involving retaliatory tariffs are 'a loss for everyone,' according to the Vice President of the ECB.
Mr. Trump is considering the establishment of a new position of "artificial intelligence director," with Mr. Mask planning to promote a shift in federal artificial intelligence policy.
The transition team for President-elect Trump is considering establishing a new position of Chief Artificial Intelligence Officer to lead the federal policy and government's use of artificial intelligence. Axios reported on Tuesday. While Elon Musk is not a candidate for this position, it is expected that he will have a significant influence on AI policy and its applications.
Hedge funds seek profits from currency volatility spikes.
● With the advent of the Trump era, currency volatility has reignited. Nick Tidemore of AT Global Markets noted that it resembles past market fluctuations.
● Traders are finding profit opportunities within this volatility, and hedge funds are purchasing options to profit from these movements.
● Intensified focus on President Trump's immigration policies and tariff changes, particularly targeting Mexico, is increasingly seen as leading to further depreciation of the Peso.
Eli Lilly and Co rose nearly 5% after hours, as the Biden administration proposed including obesity drugs in the range of medical insurance.
On the 26th, the Biden administration $Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US)$ such as ZepBound and WigoBie $Novo-Nordisk A/S (NVO.US)$ announced that obesity drugs like ZepBound and WigoBie can be covered by medical insurance for obese individuals without other diseases (e.g. diabetes). With this proposal, about 3.4 million elderly individuals enrolled in Medicare and 4 million adults enrolled in the Medicaid program for the poor will be able to receive weight loss treatments.
Intel Inc. receives up to $7.9 billion in semiconductor subsidies for factory construction from the US government.
The US government is providing up to $7.87 billion (approximately $1.2 trillion) in subsidies to semiconductor giant companies to assist in the construction of semiconductor factories in four states. $Intel (INTC.US)$ The aim of this support is to assist in the construction of semiconductor factories in four states.
Will the recovery of actual demand in major markets due to the decline in gold prices?
Analysts point out that the recent decline in gold prices has attracted buyers who were watching the rapid increase earlier this year. Since October, especially after the significant drop in November, the market psychology has changed and the actual demand has recovered significantly. There has been an increase in demand for cast products, much of which is from individual investors, but there is also an increase in demand for physical gold from institutions.
Robin Colvenbach, co-CEO of Swiss refining company Argor-Heraeus, mentioned that the prediction by some analysts that the price of gold could reach $3,000 supports the view in some parts of the market that prices above $2,700 are no longer too high.
The head of the gold department of a private gold import bank based in Mumbai stated that if the gold price maintains the current level of around $2,620, there is a possibility that the recovery in India's gold demand will continue into December.
moomoo News Zeber
Source: moomoo, Bloomberg, Dow Jones, Benzinga
This article utilizes auto-translation in some parts.
Outlook for the US market: The year-end forecast for S&P500, expecting 7000 for Deutsche Bank, and the Dow Jones started with a loss of 121 dollars.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only. Read more
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