Outlook for the US market: temporary rebound or reversal? Nvidia and Bitcoin rebounded, and the Dow started 32 dollars higher.
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This is the forecast for tonight's New York stock market.![]()
Market Overview
USA market starts with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, consisting of high-quality stocks, up $32.95 at $38,736.22, and the Nasdaq Composite Index, with a high proportion of technology stocks, up 61.28 points at 16,261.36. The S&P500, consisting of 500 large-cap stocks, is up 20.09 points at 5,206.42.
USA market starts with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, consisting of high-quality stocks, up $32.95 at $38,736.22, and the Nasdaq Composite Index, with a high proportion of technology stocks, up 61.28 points at 16,261.36. The S&P500, consisting of 500 large-cap stocks, is up 20.09 points at 5,206.42.
Top News
Gradual improvement
After causing a dramatic drop of 6.4 trillion dollars in stock prices globally for three weeks, on Monday, the market regained its composure on Tuesday. However, the rebound is clearly weaker than during the collapse and does not prove that the collapse has ended.
The futures of the S&P500 and Nasdaq are expected to recover only a small part of yesterday's losses. Stock prices in the UK and Europe have retraced their previous gains and turned lower. In Japan, there has been stronger movement, with two major stock indices rising by over 9% at the close after a 12% drop the previous day.
Related articles:
Tokyo market summary: Nikkei average increased by 3217 yen, the largest increase ever. Despite the sharp rebound, the unprecedented volatility and the uncertainty of the future cannot be erased.
Is it a "great buying opportunity" or the beginning of a bear market? After a huge crash, the Nikkei Average had its largest increase ever!
After causing a dramatic drop of 6.4 trillion dollars in stock prices globally for three weeks, on Monday, the market regained its composure on Tuesday. However, the rebound is clearly weaker than during the collapse and does not prove that the collapse has ended.
The futures of the S&P500 and Nasdaq are expected to recover only a small part of yesterday's losses. Stock prices in the UK and Europe have retraced their previous gains and turned lower. In Japan, there has been stronger movement, with two major stock indices rising by over 9% at the close after a 12% drop the previous day.
Related articles:
Tokyo market summary: Nikkei average increased by 3217 yen, the largest increase ever. Despite the sharp rebound, the unprecedented volatility and the uncertainty of the future cannot be erased.
Is it a "great buying opportunity" or the beginning of a bear market? After a huge crash, the Nikkei Average had its largest increase ever!
Is it a temporary rebound or a reversal?
Now, the market's biggest concern is whether Monday's ups and downs will be the final blow of the global crash that began last week, or whether it signals the start of a prolonged slump.
However, according to Bloomberg, there is one thing that is clear. That is, the pillars that have supported the rise of financial markets for many years, such as the unstoppable US economy and the AI revolution, are wavering.
On the other hand, as Goldman Sachs pointed out, buying after a 5% decline in the S&P 500 has typically been profitable over the past 40 years.
Now, the market's biggest concern is whether Monday's ups and downs will be the final blow of the global crash that began last week, or whether it signals the start of a prolonged slump.
However, according to Bloomberg, there is one thing that is clear. That is, the pillars that have supported the rise of financial markets for many years, such as the unstoppable US economy and the AI revolution, are wavering.
On the other hand, as Goldman Sachs pointed out, buying after a 5% decline in the S&P 500 has typically been profitable over the past 40 years.
Breaking news: US trade balance in June is -73.1 billion dollars.
US trade balance in June: -73.1 billion dollars (forecast: -72.5 billion dollars, May: -75.1 billion dollars).
US trade balance in June: -73.1 billion dollars (forecast: -72.5 billion dollars, May: -75.1 billion dollars).
The planned interest rate cut by the FRB is being disrupted by the sharp decline in stock prices.
The global stock market crash on the 5th is increasing the risk of economic recession and the risk of more painful accidents in the financial markets. However, in order for officials from the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) who prepared for a 0.25-point interest rate cut at the September meeting to be forced to take stronger measures, the outlook will probably worsen further in the coming weeks.
The global stock market crash on the 5th is increasing the risk of economic recession and the risk of more painful accidents in the financial markets. However, in order for officials from the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) who prepared for a 0.25-point interest rate cut at the September meeting to be forced to take stronger measures, the outlook will probably worsen further in the coming weeks.
Concerns about carry trades.
On the other hand, in the foreign exchange market, JP Morgan Chase & Co. warns that the yen is still one of the most undervalued currencies, and there is still room for a reversal in recent carry trades.
Carry trade is a transaction in which borrowing is done at low interest rates in Japan to raise funds to purchase high-yielding assets in other countries. This transaction was severely affected last week due to the sharp increase in the volatility of the yen.
On the other hand, in the foreign exchange market, JP Morgan Chase & Co. warns that the yen is still one of the most undervalued currencies, and there is still room for a reversal in recent carry trades.
Carry trade is a transaction in which borrowing is done at low interest rates in Japan to raise funds to purchase high-yielding assets in other countries. This transaction was severely affected last week due to the sharp increase in the volatility of the yen.
Changes in points to note
On Monday, there were speculations in the market about an emergency interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), but these speculations retreated during the day. This was one of the reasons for the purchase of US bonds due to the rush to safe-haven assets amidst the stock market crash.
The momentum is weakening today as well, and traders are focusing on the $58 billion bond auction taking place today, causing US bonds to decline.
On Monday, there were speculations in the market about an emergency interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), but these speculations retreated during the day. This was one of the reasons for the purchase of US bonds due to the rush to safe-haven assets amidst the stock market crash.
The momentum is weakening today as well, and traders are focusing on the $58 billion bond auction taking place today, causing US bonds to decline.
Hedging trades for black swan
Bloomberg's market team compiled a list of 'things to do' and 'things not to do' that bankers say when the market crashes.
One of the things traders did yesterday was to quickly hedge their portfolios in preparation for the extreme market crash.
In a period reminiscent of the chaos when the pandemic began, a defensive strategy known as the Black Swan Hedge suddenly became popular, and the Cambria Tail Risk ETF, an actively managed listed tail risk fund, recorded the highest surge of 4.5% since March 2020.
Bloomberg's market team compiled a list of 'things to do' and 'things not to do' that bankers say when the market crashes.
One of the things traders did yesterday was to quickly hedge their portfolios in preparation for the extreme market crash.
In a period reminiscent of the chaos when the pandemic began, a defensive strategy known as the Black Swan Hedge suddenly became popular, and the Cambria Tail Risk ETF, an actively managed listed tail risk fund, recorded the highest surge of 4.5% since March 2020.
Google loses the lawsuit, and Apple is also a loser.
- On August 5th local time, a US court $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ ruled that Google's search business violated US antitrust laws, and the US Department of Justice, the plaintiff, won the case. This trial is the largest antitrust violation case in the United States in more than 20 years, and there is a possibility that Google's dominance in the search market over the past decades may be overturned.
- A significant partner of Google $Apple (AAPL.US)$ is definitely affected. The US Department of Justice accused Google of paying more than $10 billion a year to Apple and other companies to maintain its position as the default search engine. According to the court documents on the violation of the US antitrust laws, based on their agreement, Google paid Apple $20 billion in 2022 alone to have Google as the default search engine for iPhone, iPad, and Mac Safari browsers.
- On August 5th local time, a US court $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ ruled that Google's search business violated US antitrust laws, and the US Department of Justice, the plaintiff, won the case. This trial is the largest antitrust violation case in the United States in more than 20 years, and there is a possibility that Google's dominance in the search market over the past decades may be overturned.
- A significant partner of Google $Apple (AAPL.US)$ is definitely affected. The US Department of Justice accused Google of paying more than $10 billion a year to Apple and other companies to maintain its position as the default search engine. According to the court documents on the violation of the US antitrust laws, based on their agreement, Google paid Apple $20 billion in 2022 alone to have Google as the default search engine for iPhone, iPad, and Mac Safari browsers.
- moomoo News, Zeber
Source: moomoo, Bloomberg, MINKABU, Dow Jones
This article uses auto-translation partially.
Source: moomoo, Bloomberg, MINKABU, Dow Jones
This article uses auto-translation partially.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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