Outlook for the US market: Dow Inc starts 86 dollars higher. Goldman Sachs points out that the possibility of the US stocks entering a bearish market is low.

A strategist at Goldman Sachs pointed out that the possibility of US stocks entering a bearish market is low.
● $Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$The strategist mentioned that amid expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), the risk of an economic downturn is still low, so it is unlikely that US stocks will fall by more than 20%. In their memo dated September 9th, they stated that their asset allocation remains neutral, but their outlook over the next 12 months is 'mildly pro-risk'.
Furthermore, Christian Mueller-Glissmann's team points out that although there is a possibility of a decline in stock prices towards the end of the year due to rising valuations, mixed growth prospects, and policy uncertainty, the economy is also supported by a "healthy private sector", so the possibility of a full-fledged bear market is low.
Additionally, historical analysis by strategists shows that the frequency of a more than 20% drop in stocks has decreased since the 1990s. This is due to the lengthening of the business cycle, the decrease in macroeconomic volatility, and the "buffering" effect of central banks. $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$The frequency of declines of more than 20% has decreased since the 1990s. This is due to the lengthening of the business cycle, the decrease in macroeconomic volatility, and the 'buffering' by central banks.
Related articles:[Preview] Will the FRB rate cut be a boost? The CPI is expected to slow down in August, and the market's focus is on avoiding a hard landing.

Concerns about the debate
●火曜日夜に行われる、カマラ・ハリス副大統領とドナルド・トランプ前大統領による初の米大統領選ディベートを前に、市場に動揺の兆しが現れている。
●ドルのボラティリティを示す指標は、2023年3月の銀行危機以来の高値に近づいている。米国株式先物はこのイベントに向けてほとんど変化しなかったが、株価のいわゆる恐怖ゲージは再び上昇傾向にある。
●外国為替ブローカーXTBのリサーチ・ディレクター、キャスリーン・ブルックスによると、「世界中で政治的なショックが起きているが、最大のリスクはやはり11月のアメリカ選挙だ」という。

Apple tax
●14 billionドル以上に相当するアイルランドの税金をめぐる法廷闘争に敗れたアップル株に注目が集まっている。
●欧州連合（EU）の司法裁判所は、アイルランドがiPhoneメーカーに不当な利益を与え、国家補助法を破ったという2016年の画期的な判決を支持した。
●この判決は、 $Apple (AAPL.US)$ がiPhone 16を発表した翌日に下された。ティム・クック最高経営責任者（CEO）によれば、この機種は「一から作り直した」人工知能搭載の携帯電話だという。これとは別に、 $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ Lost the battle with regulatory authorities over a record-breaking $2.6 billion fine.
The court upheld the 2017 ruling and determined that the US tech giant illegally exploited the dominance of its search engine to prioritize its own product listings.

TSMC's August revenue increased by 33% compared to the same month last year, with the potential for even higher performance driven by orders for the iPhone 16.
Supported by strong demand for AI and smartphones, $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$The revenue in August has been steadily increasing.
On September 10th, TSMC announced its latest monthly performance. TSMC's revenue in August was NT$250.866 billion, an increase of 33% compared to the same month last year and a decrease of 2.4% compared to the previous quarter. Cumulative revenue was NT$177.397 billion, an increase of 30.8% compared to the same period last year.
This year, TSMC has maintained strong monthly revenue. The best month this year was May, with an increase of 59.6% compared to the same month last year, followed by July with a 44.7% increase. Although the latest revenue in August decreased compared to July, it still maintained an increase of over 30% compared to the same month last year.