Outlook for the US market: UBS predicts that the S&P 500 index will decline by at least 10% = The Dow starts with a $98 decline
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Here is the forecast for the NY stock market tonight.![]()
Market Overview
The US market started with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which consists of high-quality stocks, down 98.20 points to 40,638.76 dollars, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index started at 17,061.41, up 35.53 points. The S&P 500, which consists of 500 large-cap US stocks, started at 5,496.42, up 0.90 points.
The US market started with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which consists of high-quality stocks, down 98.20 points to 40,638.76 dollars, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index started at 17,061.41, up 35.53 points. The S&P 500, which consists of 500 large-cap US stocks, started at 5,496.42, up 0.90 points.
Top News
The inflation rate is slowing down.
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August, announced by the US Department of Labor on the 11th, was 2.5% compared to the same month last year, in line with market expectations.
- The question for policymakers at the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) is whether to stick to a 0.25 point rate cut based on this data or choose a 0.5 point rate cut. Traders are prepared for the possibility of a narrower rate cut, but also for the possibility of a wider rate cut.
- In a report dated September 9th, economists Veronica Clark and Andrew Hollenhorst of Citigroup stated, 'If the CPI weakens considering the downside risks to the labor market and economic activity, the threshold for starting rate cuts could be lower.'
Related articles:Update - [Indicators Flash Report] US CPI in August, rose 2.5% compared to the previous year, in line with expectations, growth has slowed from the previous month.
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August, announced by the US Department of Labor on the 11th, was 2.5% compared to the same month last year, in line with market expectations.
- The question for policymakers at the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) is whether to stick to a 0.25 point rate cut based on this data or choose a 0.5 point rate cut. Traders are prepared for the possibility of a narrower rate cut, but also for the possibility of a wider rate cut.
- In a report dated September 9th, economists Veronica Clark and Andrew Hollenhorst of Citigroup stated, 'If the CPI weakens considering the downside risks to the labor market and economic activity, the threshold for starting rate cuts could be lower.'
Related articles:Update - [Indicators Flash Report] US CPI in August, rose 2.5% compared to the previous year, in line with expectations, growth has slowed from the previous month.
Debate Watch
- Republican Donald Trump debated Democrat Kamala Harris.
Initially, the focus was on the economy and immigration issues. Mr. Trump attacked Ms. Harris on border policy, while Ms. Harris emphasized that her policy would "elevate America's middle class and workers".
The aftermath of the debate has shifted the advantage to Harris, who has gained the support of billionaire pop superstar Taylor Swift, while the reaction of the assets has been sluggish in the betting market.
Related articles:
【Focus】Trump falls into Harris' trap at the US Presidential Debate
Update - [Trump vs. Harris TV debate] Harris stated that the "economy of opportunity" supports Americans who are concerned about the economy and criticized Trump's tax reduction proposal.
- Republican Donald Trump debated Democrat Kamala Harris.
Initially, the focus was on the economy and immigration issues. Mr. Trump attacked Ms. Harris on border policy, while Ms. Harris emphasized that her policy would "elevate America's middle class and workers".
The aftermath of the debate has shifted the advantage to Harris, who has gained the support of billionaire pop superstar Taylor Swift, while the reaction of the assets has been sluggish in the betting market.
Related articles:
【Focus】Trump falls into Harris' trap at the US Presidential Debate
Update - [Trump vs. Harris TV debate] Harris stated that the "economy of opportunity" supports Americans who are concerned about the economy and criticized Trump's tax reduction proposal.
Soft landing.
Brent crude briefly dipped below $70 per barrel for the first time since the second half of 2021, before recovering.
From Citigroup to JP Morgan, as the world's largest commodity trader indicated on Monday, the forecast that oil would fall to the $60 per barrel range by 2025 could further increase the likelihood that the USA and its neighboring countries may withstand the impact of high borrowing costs without slipping into a recession.
According to Tim Drayson, Chief Economist at Legal & General Investment Management, "The possibility of a soft landing is likely not only in the United States but also in Europe."
Brent crude briefly dipped below $70 per barrel for the first time since the second half of 2021, before recovering.
From Citigroup to JP Morgan, as the world's largest commodity trader indicated on Monday, the forecast that oil would fall to the $60 per barrel range by 2025 could further increase the likelihood that the USA and its neighboring countries may withstand the impact of high borrowing costs without slipping into a recession.
According to Tim Drayson, Chief Economist at Legal & General Investment Management, "The possibility of a soft landing is likely not only in the United States but also in Europe."
The global rate cut cycle is favorable for the US dollar.
The likelihood of American stocks entering a bearish market is low.
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ is expected to drop by at least 10%.
The pre-rate cut rally in US bonds this time is more prominent than in previous cycles.
The strength of the August inflation statistics in the U.S. could push up the dollar.
The change in expectations for interest rate cuts by the Bank of England could potentially expand the rise in the British pound.
● Pantheon Macroeconomics
Small and medium-sized businesses in the U.S. are struggling with high credit costs.
● Commerzbank
Ahead of the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision, stock prices in Europe and the U.S. could remain range-bound.
● Barclays
The employment statistics make it unlikely for the Bank of England to cut interest rates in September.
Expectations of a reasonable rate cut by the Bank of England rather than the Federal Reserve.
The yen exchange rate is expected to resume its downtrend against the dollar and fall below 150 yen by the end of the year.
- moomoo News, Zeber
Source: moomoo, Bloomberg
This article uses auto-translation partially.
Source: moomoo, Bloomberg
This article uses auto-translation partially.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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